Bike 40 - Too Thin?

Guys who bluff a lot call down lighter, so I like it. I would expect him to call k high here.

Good

You can and maybe should c/r flop

I think check raising the flop is awful.

I play the same way.

I'm ok with the play, but definitely not the planning to call if raised on the river. It's very rare that I play with anyone who bluff raises the river often enough to make that call correct. The river raise bluff, especially on a brick river, is just not in the repertoire of most players.

With chillrob on this, bet is fine but I wouldn't call a raise with this hand. Even theory wise its just close to bottom of your value range, it would be a stretch to put in two bets here.

I think it boils down to this. What’s more likely? How likely will the villain call with Ace high if you bet verses how likely will he bet with air if you check?

If he was very likely to bet with air, seems like he would have on the turn.

I get it, but I just don’t know what hands he can check turn and raise river with that make any sense. I (and plenty of others) have a fair number of bluffs and weak value hands here, and I could easily see someone trying to blow out a hand like that here.

Sure, there aren't many hands that make sense. but this guy is not very good. I wouldn't expect to get raised here often enough that it's especially important, though since you mentioned it, did he actually raise?

He did not.

If he’s a lag that’s not very good wouldn’t we expect him to be overbluffing rather than underbluffing?

I met plenty of people that I have to autocall the river raises with because they are so aggro.

Can’t treat everyone the same way, although I agree with you on a baseline level.

In my experience, even most aggro LAGs still don't bluff raise the river. Personally I only play with one player who bluff raises the river often enough that I need to auto-call.

Again agreed. There are tons of run of the mill spewy LAGs *preflop*, there are only a few who do crazy stuff *postflop*. I probably get caught bluff raising the river more than the rest of the table combined every session.

I play with a few who do crazy bluff raises on the flop and the turn, but only the one who ever bluff-raises the river. Even good players generally underbluff the river, if they're playing with players who ever fold anything but air to a river raise. I only ever try it against very few players who I know have a fold button, and I'm probably not doing as much of it as optimal.

I think LA has the most river bluff raisers in the country.

On just particular river cards where it makes sense, or even on what is basically a brick, like in this hand?