Flop decision with a draw.
Two players limp, the SB completes and I check Ks8c in the BB.
7d6d5h...The SB bets. She is a very solid player. She is on the tighter side of TAG. She seems to be a good hand reader. I have seen her pick off bluffs on the river with Ace high and K high. She would raise pre with 99's or better. She has shown down strong hands so far but I'm sure she is capable of betting a draw here. There was a hand where she opened in early position, there were several calls, I 3b in the BB with TT's and all call. I bet a low board flop and got 3 calls. I bet again on a turn K and she shook her head and folded. When she saw my TT's take the pot down she was visibly upset and told me she folded JJ's. On one hand she might over estimate the strength of my hand but on the other she may be more likely to have learned her lesson. I do give off a tighter Tag vibe. We only have about 10 hours of play with each other. The UTG player who limped plays every hand and seems sticky post flop.
As I type this out I'm starting to think just calling with this holding makes sense. Maybe raise a hand like J8 since I may get better hands to fold? Maybe raise if I had a little better draw like if I held a Kd on the K8? If I did raise the K8 would the plan be to 3 barrel uip? If I had J8 or T8 it seems it would be mandatory to 3 barrel.
4 Replies
What size game?
Perhaps it's too tight, but I'm leaning towards a fold. It's a small pot, you could be drawing basically dead already, the Kd/9d/4d are dirty outs, still two players to act behind, and you might drawing to a chop.
Definitely don’t fold. I would call and see what happens. I would want something to go with the OESD (a high diamond or a pair; perhaps T8) before I considered raising.
If your hand was better (using two cards instead of one; holding a diamond and/or bd fldr; rainbow flop with a bd fldr) or the pot were bigger (but not too big) you might make a better case for raising. But here just call and see what happens seems best.
Folding isn't an unreasonable consideration just not what's best. Being offered 5:1 immediate for small bets it's fine to be optimistic now and update beliefs as the action unfolds.
Raise and it not close you fold out better KT,A9,A3 and A5,K5s etc into awkward spot. Non zero chance she doesn't have J8. Can always k/b turn on blank and decide. Nothing wrong raise flop to clear the field of equity and folding riv.
