Bike 40/80 - Weird FH Spot
Tricky middle aged asian guy raises UTG. It's folded to me and I 3bet JJ in the HJ. Everyone else folds, UTG calls.
Flop KQQtt. This flop is not good. UTG checks and I check it back with the intention of calling down on some runouts, folding on others, and potentially betting for value if he checks the turn again. (I recognize this is not standard and it may be a mistake.)
Turn J completing the flush. UTG leads, I raise, UTG thinks for a smidge and calls. He then checks the river dark.
River 4r. UTG checks, I bet, UTG c/r. I know that I am screwed but pay off anyway.
12 Replies
I don’t know why you hate this flop so much. I’d rather bet it and consider checking back turn. But as played is fine post flop you can never fold.
i dont play 40 but doesnt it make sense to just bet the flop? b/c you presumably arent calling a CR and arent calling down any more bets. if you check flop you are hoping you induced a bluff and are calling down 2 big bets. if you bet flop, check turn, call river you are calling down 1.5 big bets.
The biggest problem with betting the flop is tricky players are very capable of CR’ing with smaller pocket pairs and gut shots.
Why is that bad?
Also, I really don’t understand think people or going to town her with AT
What's the plan if I bet flop and he C/R? I tend to agree that most 40 players are not going to C/R gutshots or turn 44-88 into a bluff here, but it seems like JJ is just a smidge too strong to fold flop to a C/R.
Call.
It matters a bit if you think UTG has a 4b range pre. Flop is a decent amount better for you if his range is decapitated and I wouldn't really consider checking. If he just calls the 3b HU here with everything, I think it's closer and checking could be fine. I kind of like checking more against a tricky player because you can get them to way overbluff.
I think you played the rest of the hand fine, but against some players I'd give some serious thought to sometimes calling turn and raising any river except a K or Q. JJ is probably our best hand to do that with.
I beat AT, AQ, AA, and AK, so I don't think I can check back the river.
I think the hand was played perfectly.
You can play whatever you like once you hit full house. But the problem I see is you need to start asking tougher questions. these hands ev are probably -/+ ev that doesn't matter in long run since situation happen rarely. It almost like if you post a hand where you hit royal flush and you happen to fold to a bet and you ask if it a mistake, everyone comes in and give their opinion on how it should be play. But what the odds of it happening in long term, while you leaking other spots that you need to fix.
