60-120 Fur Coat Dilemma

60-120 at Commerce, a tough game has recently softened up.

I raise UTG with A♠J♠. Twelve cold-callers and then Wayne 3-bets from the big blind. I decide to cap and everyone calls.

Flop comes Q♦T♦7♠. Wayne bets, I call, 6 other guys call, then there's a raise. Wayne 3-bets, I call, somebody caps, we all call. turn.

Turn is a very nice K♥. Wayne bets, I raise, next guy cold-calls, next guy cold-calls, Wayne 3-bets, I cap, next guy calls all in, next guy folds, Wayne calls. You can barely see the felt for all the chips in the middle of the table.

River is another 7. Wayne bets.

Now I know I'm beat.

I'm 100% positive.

100%.

And yet, . . . and yet . . .

In the back of my mind I'm remembering Izmet Fekali. For those of you who are not old enough to remember, Izmet was a one-of-a-kind poster, which you'll see in a moment. In the back of my mind, I remembered, pretty accurately I must say, these posts, which I herewith reproduce in all their glory:

To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: J-D
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 2:47 a.m.
In Response To: Re: Top Players: How Many Re-Raises? (Louie Landale)

In a recent session I was on the wrong end of set-over-set when the
flop came. I flopped a set of queens, to a board of:

King, Queen, Seven - with two clubs.

Five of us capped it on the flop; I was absolutely certain I had the
best hand since I had put in the second (and last) raise pre-flop and
the holder of "KK" was a very aggressive player whom I was sure would
have capped it with "AA", "KK", - probably even with "AKs".

When a blank fell on the turn and he NOW decided to cap it, I was 99%
sure of what he had. I called on the basis of the 1% I was wrong, and
the fact that the fourth Queen would put the flush out giving me
excellent implied odds. (Looking back, I may have even been getting
45-1 without future bets; it was a BIG pot.)

Of course the Queen landed on the river.

I checked, the Ace high flush bet, "KK" raised, sevens full and another
flush just called. When it got back to me, I three-bet it;

I got paid off by everyone EXCEPT "KK", who flashed me his hand before
he mucked it.

There were well over 50 big bets in the pot and he wouldn't pay one
more bet to see it to the end - and his call would have almost
certainly closed the action; this was no group of rocket scientists,
but even they knew they were beaten - none of them were about to cap
the betting.

In order for this to be a good laydown on his part, he would have to be
more than 98% sure that he was beaten.

Looking at it from his perspective, he figured to win this hand
approximately one time in a thousand.

IMO, and I am not a fan of laying down big hands on the river for one
more bet in huge pots, I don't think he could win it that often.

P.S. Having said all that, I would have probably paid off; perhaps the
day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny, but it
hasn't come yet. It doesn't really matter how good your hand is, or the
size of the pot.

Sometimes even second nut isn't worth one more bet.

Just my opinion,
J-D


Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: Izmet Fekali
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 7:02 a.m.
In Response To: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (J-D)

J-D writes:
> perhaps the day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny

Aaaarghh!!!

Someday you will make such a fold, it will be a good one and you will
be happy. You will be able to afford a shrimp cocktail at Binions with
the saved bet and maybe even treat a friend.

Feeling like a champ, you will do it again someday. But, this time a
guy with Q2s will drag your pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat
and f*ck her blue for a week. Now which guy do you want to be? The
smart one with the shrimp cocktail or the stupid one with the sore
dick?

From an old Albanian song:

"I was told by David Duchowny
ya' won't get rich by good laydowny!"
--
Izmet Fekali (I have a filthy mouth, Mason, please bear with me...)
Burek Experts Ltd.
Catering the World Since 1389!
Albania, Slovenia, Europe


Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts
Posted By: David Sklansky
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 1:01 p.m.
In Response To: Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (Izmet Fekali)

Unfortunately, when I wrote my Eight Mistakes In Poker and contrasted
the mistake of folding when you should call with its opposite number, I
did not have Izmet's explanation available to me. It will be included
in my next edition.

David Sklansky

[end old posts]

So I opted to try to be the stupid guy with the sore dick.

No shrimp cocktails for me this week.