Nut straight OOP
I’m the first one to admit this. I sometimes struggle when I’m playing OOP.
Aggressive button opens. He’s the best player at the table and has a very wide opening range. He’ll open with hands like T6s, K5s, 98o, etc. He will almost always bet the flop heads up and cbet most turns if he has the initiative or senses weakness.
I make it 3 bets from the SB with QJs. BB folds so we’re heads up.
Flop comes 8d 9s Td. I don’t have a flush draw or back door flush draw.
I bet, villain raises, and I call. My intention was to check raise most turns. I was pretty confident the villain would bet most turns.
Turn: 8d 9s Td 9d.
Check, villain bets.
What’s my best play now? I probably screwed up the flop.
9 Replies
Just keep raising the flop, they never believe you.
3bet flop. Edit: missed the turn brought the diamonds in. I think just calling is your best option here.
I would also 3bet flop and, as played, would c/c this particular turn card.
I’d still c/r or I might even donk.
It’s not a great card for you but he has plenty of Tx, 9j etc etc etc that you should want two bets to go in but not three
I think you’re underestimating how bad this turn is. I also don’t love putting in more action when we’re OOP and have literally zero outs to improve (and villain virtually always has outs to improve).
As played c/c turn and donk the river if no diamond or another card paired.
I think you’re underestimating how bad this turn is. I also don’t love putting in more action when we’re OOP and have literally zero outs to improve (and villain virtually always has outs to improve).
Does this accurately reflect what you think their range is?
PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.15.1.1
(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 60.1% 56.4% 7.41% [QsJs]
Player 2: 39.9% 36.2% 7.41% {88+, ATs, AdJd+, Ad7d, KTs, KdJd+, Kd7d, QTs+, Qd7d, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, 76s, 7d5d, ATo, KTo, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o}
Board: [8d 9s Td 9d ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}
Monte Carlo Simulation: 1000000 trials
If that range is close, we are dead to 28 combos, but tied or crushing 96 combos. I think their range is a bit stronger than my estimate because their off suit hands should have a big diamond much more often than my random distribution estimates.
Range Heat Map: Player 2
88+, ATs, AdJd+, Ad7d, KTs, KdJd+, Kd7d, QTs+, Qd7d, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, 76s, 7d5d, ATo, KTo, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o
Range's Equity: 39.9%
Breakeven Equity: 50.0%
Number of assign-able hand combos in range (includes card removal effect and partial range removal effect): 124
Number of hand combos possible (includes card removal effect but not range removal effect): 1035
HandCombosInRange / HandCombosPossible: 12.0%
Hand, %age of range, Number of assign-able hand combos, Equity (includes card and range removal effects)
Pair Hands:
AA, 4.84%, 6 comb, 19.4%
KK, 4.84%, 6 comb, 19.5%
QQ, 2.42%, 3 comb, 23.1%
JJ, 2.42%, 3 comb, 23.1%
TT, 2.42%, 3 comb, 100.0%
9c9h, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
88, 2.42%, 3 comb, 100.0%
Suited Hands:
AdKd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
AdQd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
AdJd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
ATs, 2.42%, 3 comb, 9.12%
Ad7d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
KdQd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
KdJd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
KTs, 2.42%, 3 comb, 9.01%
Kd7d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
QJs, 2.42%, 3 comb, 66.6%
QTs, 1.61%, 2 comb, 12.4%
Qd7d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
JTs, 1.61%, 2 comb, 12.9%
J9s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 23.6%
J8s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 12.5%
J7s, 2.42%, 3 comb, 35.8%
T9s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 100.0%
T8s, 2.42%, 3 comb, 13.5%
T7s, 2.42%, 3 comb, 9.02%
98s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 100.0%
76s, 3.23%, 4 comb, 25.2%
7d5d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
Offsuit Hands:
ATo, 7.26%, 9 comb, 15.7%
KTo, 7.26%, 9 comb, 16.1%
QJo, 4.84%, 6 comb, 56.9%
QTo, 5.65%, 7 comb, 21.0%
JTo, 5.65%, 7 comb, 20.6%
J9o, 3.23%, 4 comb, 33.1%
T9o, 3.23%, 4 comb, 100.0%
T8o, 4.84%, 6 comb, 13.5%
98o, 3.23%, 4 comb, 100.0%
All Hands Sorted On Equity:
TT, 2.42%, 3 comb, 100.0%
9c9h, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
88, 2.42%, 3 comb, 100.0%
AdKd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
AdQd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
AdJd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
Ad7d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
KdQd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
KdJd, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
Kd7d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
Qd7d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
T9s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 100.0%
98s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 100.0%
7d5d, 0.81%, 1 comb, 100.0%
T9o, 3.23%, 4 comb, 100.0%
98o, 3.23%, 4 comb, 100.0%
QJs, 2.42%, 3 comb, 66.6%
QJo, 4.84%, 6 comb, 56.9%
J7s, 2.42%, 3 comb, 35.8%
J9o, 3.23%, 4 comb, 33.1%
76s, 3.23%, 4 comb, 25.2%
J9s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 23.6%
QQ, 2.42%, 3 comb, 23.1%
JJ, 2.42%, 3 comb, 23.1%
QTo, 5.65%, 7 comb, 21.0%
JTo, 5.65%, 7 comb, 20.6%
KK, 4.84%, 6 comb, 19.5%
AA, 4.84%, 6 comb, 19.4%
KTo, 7.26%, 9 comb, 16.1%
ATo, 7.26%, 9 comb, 15.7%
T8o, 4.84%, 6 comb, 13.5%
T8s, 2.42%, 3 comb, 13.5%
JTs, 1.61%, 2 comb, 12.9%
J8s, 1.61%, 2 comb, 12.5%
QTs, 1.61%, 2 comb, 12.4%
ATs, 2.42%, 3 comb, 9.12%
T7s, 2.42%, 3 comb, 9.02%
KTs, 2.42%, 3 comb, 9.01%
Sent from my iPhone
