2024 World Series of Poker May 28th to July 17th ***No Spoilers***
The 2024 WSOP will take place at Horseshoe Las Vegas and Paris Las Vegas from May 28 to July 17, 2024, with the Main Event running from July 3 to July 17. The Main Event – poker’s undisputed freezeout world championship – will have four starting days, beginning on Wednesday, July 3. Players may also register directly on Day 2.
Is Kessler up life time at gambling now?
These machines are a group of machines that are linked together. Every time someone makes a wages an increment of that wager it added to a "side pot" that side pot grows and grows and it randomly goes off but must be hit at say $1,800 as a typical example.
I believe this to likely be the accurate explanation of what was happening. An umentioned side benefit, which chainsaw will love, is of the comps and offers that will now follow. It’s a known fact in the casino world that progressive jackpot winners tend to become some of the casinos best customers. A lot continue to visit regularly and do a lot of the money back. Once he gets put on this casinos database as a progressive jackpot winner he can expect many discounted room offers and comps to flow his way, likely for the rest of his life.
I believe this to likely be the accurate explanation of what was happening. An umentioned side benefit, which chainsaw will love, is of the comps and offers that will now follow. It’s a known fact in the casino world that progressive jackpot winners tend to become some of the casinos best customers. A lot continue to visit regularly and do a lot of the money back. Once he gets put on this casinos database as a progressive jackpot winner he can expect many discounted room offers and comps to
pretty sure kessler is already a VIP and/or already in some database with his own casino rep on speed dial
These machines are a group of machines that are linked together. Every time someone makes a wages an increment of that wager it added to a "side pot" that side pot grows and grows and it randomly goes off but must be hit at say $1,800 as a typical example. If the zombie apocalypse was happening and you walked into an empty casino and the side pot was at $1,799.99 and it must be hit by $1800 then you know when make a bet and in increment of your bet is going into the side pot then you know it
I wasnt aware of this about slots. How do people know what number the side pot is at and what number it goes off at?
Is he going to be banned as an advantage player?
I wasnt aware of this about slots. How do people know what number the side pot is at and what number it goes off at?
The side pot (or bonus) is right on the machine. Often called the “Grand”. And you don’t know the “number it goes off at”. Thse machines we’ll say someplace it must hit “by” some value. So if the grand prize is $1999.99 and the machine says it must hit BY $2000.00 you can truly say this machine is due to hit.
Another ev+ situation, though very high variance, is if you know the odds of hitting a prize you can calculate if machine does hit will it pay enough to justify playing. You are not saying the machine is due buts its payout is large enough that it is ev+.
The most common machine I see for this case is progressive VP machines. You can put the pay table into an ev calculator, including the progressive royal flush amount, and at a certain values the game become positive ev. For a 9/6 JOB machine the royal flush progressive payout doe#nt have to get very high for the machine to be ev+. Still a very high variance and you can drop much more than the royal value wo hitting.
On a “standard” JOB VP progressive, if the 5 coin progressive gets to just over 4875 vs the standard 4000, the machine is now positive EV to play. Ofc you still need to play correctly.
Looks like Kessler's 1.2 m is paid out over 20 years.
I wasnt aware of this about slots. How do people know what number the side pot is at and what number it goes off at?
Not every slot machine has this feature. But these are popular advantage play opportunities on some individual or a group of linked machines. It usually would be shown somewhere easy to see on screen and the "must hit by" amount. But some machines now hide the number on a secondary screen which is annoying and makes you stand out like a sore thumb walking up to machine after machine tapping on screen to see the mystery bonus.
So whatever reason you were in the casino from playing live pooker, eating to bowling, what the advantage player usualy does is stroll by adavantage play machines like these or video poker machine with progressive jackpots for royals and if the numbers are high enough then you sit and play, if not you keep on walking by. A typical casino might have 5-10 things to take a look at.
He has a choice of lump sum or instalments over 20 years.
Damn one final scam
The side pot (or bonus) is right on the machine. Often called the “Grand”. And you don’t know the “number it goes off at”. Thse machines we’ll say someplace it must hit “by” some value. So if the grand prize is $1999.99 and the machine says it must hit BY $2000.00 you can truly say this machine is due to hit.
Ive never seen a machine where it says on the machine when the "grand" or other jackpots must be hit by. Does all machines have this and if its not shown clearly its hidden somewhere in the interface?
The final scam is trying to fool you into picking the annual payments. People might forego the lump sum with the flawed logic "it is only 75% of the payout so Ill take the annual payments".
Over 20 years with interest the lump sum is more than 10x the value of the annual payments easily, probably more.
The only reason to pick the annual payments is if you are the kind of person who would waste all of the lump sum in a year on random garbage.
EDIT: Actually with the stupid taxes its probably a lot closer. CBA doing the maths.
Ive never seen a machine where it says on the machine when the "grand" or other jackpots must be hit by. Does all machines have this and if its not shown clearly its hidden somewhere in the interface?
No not all machines have this feature. It usually isn’t really hidden. Slot degens, not AP ones, know which machines have must bys.
The final scam is trying to fool you into picking the annual payments. People might forego the lump sum with the flawed logic "it is only 75% of the payout so Ill take the annual payments".
Over 20 years with interest the lump sum is more than 10x the value of the annual payments easily, probably more.
The only reason to pick the annual payments is if you are the kind of person who would waste all of the lump sum in a year on random garbage.
EDIT: Actually with the stupid taxes its probably a lot c
With REASONABLE assumptions the lump sum and annuity are close to the same. Even more so the payer is indifferent. Annuities, esp SPIA annuities, is a very competitive market. So payer in this case can write an 800K check to buy annuity or write the same check to chainsaw.
But the proper way to value these are on a NPV basis, pretax because you don’t know your future tax situation much less future tax laws. However, if you want to do it on a FV basis, which is exactly what you are doing talking about how much the lump sum, you have to do so for both cash flows. That is you have to account for how much those 60k payments will also grow.
FYI:
There is a separate thread to discuss GG Poker buying WSOP brand from Caesars.
My impression is that advantage slot and VP players almost never get banned (i.e. trespassed) from casinos for advantage play, unless they are being really obnoxious about it. Casinos' solution to these players is to suspend their accounts from receiving any comps or promotions, which is usually pretty effective at eliminating most serious AP opportunities.
My impression is that advantage slot and VP players almost never get banned (i.e. trespassed) from casinos for advantage play, unless they are being really obnoxious about it. Casinos' solution to these players is to suspend their accounts from receiving any comps or promotions, which is usually pretty effective at eliminating most serious AP opportunities.
They get banned all the time.
The final scam is trying to fool you into picking the annual payments. People might forego the lump sum with the flawed logic "it is only 75% of the payout so Ill take the annual payments".
Over 20 years with interest the lump sum is more than 10x the value of the annual payments easily, probably more.
The only reason to pick the annual payments is if you are the kind of person who would waste all of the lump sum in a year on random garbage.
EDIT: Actually with the stupid taxes its probably a lot c
It's not anywhere near 10x.
Would have to earn 13% interest every yr. Not easy to do over 20 yrs. And that does t even include the money you could earn on the 60k payments over the same time. 60k/yr earning 13% interest is $5.5 million after 20 yrs.
So then you have to earn 25%, etc. the interstate solution to achieve the true 10x the interest becomes insane as in 5 digit interest. Could do a more accurate calc but the concept is simply ridiculous.
Here is the solution:
1. Complainsaw should not sell any action to all the events he plays the rest of 2024 even though he will miss out on the ridiculous mark up people somehow pay him.
2. He will lose a lot more this year in addition to the $100k plus he admits he already lost at the WSOP because he sucks at poker.
3. Take lump sum and write off the $500k or so he will now be down this year from poker (plus as an added benefit he will save the poor souls who would have staked him and lost a lot of money)
You’re welcome Chainsaw!
Why not sell and write off the losses anyway?
Here is the solution:
1. Complainsaw should not sell any action to all the events he plays the rest of 2024 even though he will miss out on the ridiculous mark up people somehow pay him.
2. He will lose a lot more this year in addition to the $100k plus he admits he already lost at the WSOP because he sucks at poker.
3. Take lump sum and write off the $500k or so he will now be down this year from poker (plus as an added benefit he will save the poor souls who would have staked him and lost a lot
Actually he should sell action bc he's -ev. We both know he takes the full write-off when he doesn't cash an event.
The final scam is trying to fool you into picking the annual payments. People might forego the lump sum with the flawed logic "it is only 75% of the payout so Ill take the annual payments".
Over 20 years with interest the lump sum is more than 10x the value of the annual payments easily, probably more.
The only reason to pick the annual payments is if you are the kind of person who would waste all of the lump sum in a year on random garbage.
EDIT: Actually with the stupid taxes its probably a lot c
This math was posted for Kessler's situation. Kessler has posted he has 150k in losses this year. So the lump sum offer was 805k. After losses and personal exemption from that total, his net check after taxes (including SS taxes) would be $565,354. The 20-year bond rate was 4.4% last week when he hit the 1.2 mil jackpot, (it is lower now), but based on 4.4% his after-tax total would grow to $1,258,112 after 20 years.
If he took the $60,505 annual check, his first year would be tax-free. Then in the following years, his after-tax check would be $44,586. (only a 12% tax rate vs 37% for the amount over $400k for the lump sum). These 60k + 19x44k payments at 4.0% over 20 years would grow to $1,400,877 if he has NO future gaming losses in future years. (highly unlikely). But if he averages -15k in losses in future years (very likely) his annuity would grow to $1,554,961. So he is much better off taking the 20 year annuity.
This math was posted for Kessler's situation. Kessler has posted he has 150k in losses this year. So the lump sum offer was 805k. After losses and personal exemption from that total, his net check after taxes (including SS taxes) would be $565,354. The 20-year bond rate was 4.4% last week when he hit the 1.2 mil jackpot, (it is lower now), but based on 4.4% his after-tax total would grow to $1,258,112 after 20 years.
If he took the $60,505 annual check, his first year would be tax-free. Then in t
The 12 percent tax rate assumes he'd never have any other income going foward. Otherwise the extra income from the annuity would be taxed higher than that.
