How much would a 500nl reg lose against the top players 3 handed?
j Back to News, Views, and Gossip

How much would a 500nl reg lose against the top players 3 handed?

D
charlesChickensOP
1yr ago

https://twitter.com/George_ymb/status/17...

Saulo and YouMadBro had this discussion/argument on twitter.

Personally as only a 500nl reg who could be wrong, I think YMB is right the best players would have a big winrate although he didn’t need to make the case in such a rude way

My argument is theoretically if you add up all the different leaks a 500nl reg has like being unbalanced in many lines, making GTO EV mistakes, giving off timing tells, taking actions with only one hand class instead of playing their range sometimes, trying to exploit in transparent ways etc they have to be exploitable for much >10bb. Most of these a GTO bot isnt punishing at all so players winrates vs bots aren’t a good indicator. And someone like Stefan would induce even more mistakes with that style

I can’t say how much of the theoretical amount an elite player can capture since haven’t played against any but expect it to be >5bb

) 1 View 1
05 January 2024 at 02:15 AM
Show posts by Original Poster
Show most liked posts
Reply...

243 Replies

Search in Thread

Reply...
X 9 u
x

About OP

D
charlesChickens
centurion

Top Posts

sauce123
11mo ago

It's important to understand the comparison between stakes isn't apples to apples as midstakes is played mostly zoom and high stakes mostly 6h.

I haven't played in awhile so take this with a grain of salt.

At high stakes it's typically one weak player and 5 great players. That's a ratio of 1:5. The weak player is typically losing 10-15 bb/100 and the regs are usually making 2-3 bb/100 apiece, with the weaker regs much closer to breakeven than they'd like to think and the best regs winning 4-6bb/100. The weakest regs are probably ~0bb/100 due to overconfidence bias. Sometimes we'll see samples with a superstar reg like OTB or Linus where they'll win 8bb/100 for 100k hands or so, but this is extremely difficult to maintain.

At mid stakes it's typically a ratio of more like 1:10 regs:recs inside of a zoom pool. During the end of my time playing, you'd see a lot of variation in the quality of regs at 500z because a lot of excellent or world class players would sometimes play in the games on Stars. So here we'll have similar lossrates for the weaker players of 10-15 bb/100, but the regs will have a wider distribution and play relatively more hands against regs. The weakest zoom regs are something like ~0bb/100 or a bit under, and the best are usually 2-4bb/100. The players winning more than this typically move up fairly quickly.

In my personal case, I've played perhaps 200k hands ish of 500z for enjoyment mostly over the past several years and I ended up winning at 4-6 bb/100 pre rakeback iirc. I'd expect to win closer to 3-4bb/100 at $25/$50+. I think against excellent exploitative players like OTB and Linus, it would be difficult for an average 500z reg to lose less than 8bb/100 over a large sample, and probably closer to 10bb/100 (or more, lossrates can snowball when exploitation becomes precise). The problem for the midstakes reg is mostly one of exploitation, where as sample sizes increase the edges for the better explo player tends to get magnified, and so many exploitable tendencies they'd get away with over a small sample size (even against a great player) will get dissected as the world-beaters thoroughly figure them out.

AvatarPlasticElephant
1yr ago

I regret how aggressive I was with this - but truth is I've been shared a lot of soundbites from Saulo recently saying things to this effect, that with his course you'll be able to battle the best, he could sit with the best and do fine etc.
For whatever reason, it triggers me a bit to see multimillionaires misrepresent the truth for extra $$, and it's also disrespectful to those out there battling these games to say that it's as simple as sitting down and doing fine, 500nl students could hold their own etc - especially when they likely have a genuinely good product and it's just needless to be misleading.
Since this discussion it seems more likely Saulo genuinely believes what he's saying, and I do think his content is good, his products are likely good too, for pretty much everyone except exactly the people that want to battle in HS games.

RE the general discussion - I've played some of these games (and done not particularly well, especially at the top end), but lived with some people absolutely destroying them, discussed hands with them daily for years etc.
On the flipside, I've also discussed plenty of hands with people playing 500nl, through bitB or the wider Vienna community. The difference can't be exaggerated enough - when a 500nl reg joins a hand discussion with the others, it'll generally be very hard for them to even follow what is being talked about a lot of the time, and I'm sure many regs I know will be happy to testify to this.

The difference between elite regs and MS regs in terms of how equilibrium is formed, the mistakes people can make trying to replicate it, the functions of different parts of the range, is just night and day. Saulo despite his extremely successful business has likely never really interacted with a top 5-10 reg, so I can understand wouldn't have experienced it, but equally I'd expect the self awareness to understand there could be some unknown unknowns.

A lot of his evidence seems to be based on the idea that 6 handed bots don't crush regs, but the best humans will always have a bigger edge than bots vs average regs, and less players, higher vpip, bigger potential edge in bb/100.
This disregards too that measuring strategic EV errors vs the best humans is way way different to measuring strategic EV errors vs a static equillibrium strategy.

OFC - the main debate is whether these differences in understanding manifest into edge.
I certainly have struggled to express an edge at the tables in none HU games through it, my WR has never been high in 3-4 handed samples. However, others have results that kind of emphatically prove otherwise.

Most people aren't willing to share samples, and even generating a big sample battling top regs is hard for obvious reasons, but I got two particularly compelling ones below, one from bitB at HS, one from outside at 20knl:

Obviously there is still a chance these are the results of variance.
But the population grinding out these samples is not big, the chance of a 1 in 200 run appearing randomly is low.
Add in extra symptoms and false diagnosis becomes even less likely - the ability to predict future results of other players has been very high historically, the difference in verbal understanding is obvious.

Finally - these samples are vs much stronger opponents than a random 500nl reg.

Avatardoctor877
1yr ago

Don't really know the level of MS regs nowdays, but would say that i think even many regs winning at 5k+ would get demolished in 3handed with the top5 guys.

Trying to gauge possible edge by testing errorrate vs static botman gives basically 0 insight on possible edges. Somehow the introduction of solvers seem to have made lots of ppl think that poker is a try to match the tile to correct place game and forgot its a strategy game, and bad strategies get really punished by the top guys.

Contact Us • Privacy • Terms of Use ©2008-2024 Hand2Note Interactive LTD