Chainsaw Hits 1.2M Jackpot

Jackpots go up as people play and lose. There has to be some number at which it becomes +EV to play. The notion of predicting which slot is about to hit a jackpot is probably BS, but at some point the jackpot is going to get large enough to be +EV.

I'm buying 200 ounces of gold and holding till $3,000/oz. Easy 20%. Gold is in price discovery (highest it's ever been.) Wish I could go back a few years and buy it up at $1,700-1,800/oz.

What's bullshit about the casinos claiming malfunction is they don't refund all of the money lost to people since the last jackpot.
Either the machine malfunctioned so nothing should be valid or everything should be valid.

What I have seen is the machine is repaired. The jackpot reset to where it was and things go back to no4mal. The house does not keep the prior losses.

Also what percent on the 7 digit jackpots is that casino paying? What percent are syndicates?

Maybe casinos where you are are different.

When has the house refunded anyone who lost on one of these machines which "malfunctioned"?

There are machines where you have to collect for example 100 of something to get free spins. If someone leaves the machine when they have 99 of them you don't think it's +EV to play it?

Chainsaw looks for these machines like they were free donuts.

nothing says "zero-risk" like buying a commodity at its alltime high

The powerball is not set up as a life only annuity but maybe this one is 🤷*♂️

Are you referring to machines like firecrackers or coin trio or similar? If so, read the rules and play the game. Those visual indicators do not indicate when they will be hit. You can play many spins with the machine “due to hit” before it hits.

Similarly, it can , and I have seen it, hit back to back. So what machine, other than these bonus must hit by machines? I cannot recall seeing any collect 100 where the build up was linear.

Mods, a boomer got lost^

This is the Allen Kessler celebration of frugality thread. I once saw Allen Kessler eating a PBJ out of a bag to hold him over between casino comps. Must have pained him to part ways with that 50c in groceries. The bag was quite messy though, possibly reused which brings him closer to 45c. Hopefully this money doesn’t change him

No, it isn’t and he is incorrect. Both lotteries and these large slot prizes are term certain SPIA. If you die the payments continue to your estate.

Every time. Remember each spin is an independent game. A malfunction on this spin does not mean the prior spins were malfunctions.

As long as the accumulated value of those earlier games is restored after the malfunction is addressed, no one is harmed.

that doesn't mean the malfunction only magically occurred on the spin the jackpot hit.

Assuming the malfunction previously existed, very unlikely with today’s digital machines constantly monitoring error codes and frequent (continuous?) diagnostics, how were those prior users harmed? They were paid their wins. The malfunction obviously did not prevent the JP from hitting, so were other prizes or wins impacted? Even if it did, is the fact that a machine, who’s payout the user doesn’t know and is not guaranteed, has a lower payout than programmed a harm to the user?

He is referring to the machine that Kessler was actually playing, Buffalo Power Play.

Of course there are very many machines that are never in a +EV state. There are, however, many machines that can occasionally be found in a +EV state. Experienced AP slot players have a good idea of which machines they are and how to recognize when they are in a +EV state.

I understand what a EV+ slot is. He described a particular situation that I have never seen. A machine approaching its must hit by number is different from what was described. A machine where is progressives are high enough to make a machine EV+ (much harder to know for a slot) is also something very different.

Many people believe that (as an example) seeing a firecracker machine with three small firecracker machines is due (same with three fat pigs, or similar games).The reality is, and the game specifically tells you, the visual representation does not indicate likelihood of the next spin hitting.

Soecifically where is this machine that you can in a rational session collect 99 coins knowing that X spins will get you the next coin and getting this coin triggers a JP level payout.

The machine chainsaw hit was probably already at or very near the the EV neutral point. He then had to play 12 hours. That machine, if unlinked, may have been building for years or at least months. The person who left beforehand was not leaving a machine imminently due to hit. Walking in and finding those is like finding a unicorn. The proposed scenario just doesn’t happen.

^ I did mean must hit, I think. I’m not a slots player but I watch Vegas Matt sometimes. I meant a machine like he plays sometimes with huge bets because he knows he will get the free spins sooner or later.

I have grinded a lot online machine called Book of 99 which is highly +EV with good bonus. It returns 99% and you have to collect 99 books to get free spins. I suppose you don’t have machines like this in real life casinos then but I thought the machine Matt plays was kinda similar.

No, I didn’t think fat piggies mean they are bout to splode

I've never really understood how APs can know that a slot machine is +EV. Typically casinos never report the payout percentages of individual slot machines, and it don't believe the value of a particular bonus is known to the public. Even the probability of hitting a bonus on a given spin is not known. This is far different from video poker where the exact payout of a particular machine or a specific play is straightforwardly calculable.

Do APs have some inside information into the programming of these slots that allows them to know how much a machine will payout in different states?

Typical 2+2 fail where the most words are written by people that know the least. The banked bonus must hit before $1,800 in example of Buffalo shown in picture I'm posting. If you found a non-linked machine at $1,799.98 it must hit win you make a wager and an increment of your wager gets added to the machine's banked bonus.

And people are confusing having to lock up a seat early playing slowly with playing fast for 12 hours. This time factor should be left out of the conversation going forward. I've seen people play the 16 hours they were awake locking up one of the 4-5 seats, but they played as slow as molasses when the banked bonus was low. They simply locked up a seat all day long. And this is a common practice if not all machines are the same. Imagine if you could choose between video poker Jacks or Better or a worse Bonus Poker machine. Or some machines were $1 machines and anothers were $5 machines giving you 5 times as many entries at the bonus. Forget the time factor on this discussion.

5 linked machines like this, paying out $1.2 million will take well longer than a day or even a week to approach the 1800. The point is one long session will not raise the machine from well out of EV+ into EV+. Plus if you spend the coin to get to to the EV+ status, it is by definition EV-. These 7 figure machine don’t hit every day or even every week.

So yes you might walk up to a must by machine that has just git to EV+ but that can be a LONG way from reaching the must by number. Like 10k+ spinseven jumping to the bonus round which not all of these machines have. So even when these machines become EV+ you need a significant capital to realize that EV.

The unicorn you won’t find is such a machine just five spins from hitting the must by number. When a machine even starts to get close, the AP “know” and no seats are available.

So Kessler really is Knish 2.0 in the Rounders story of our lives after all.

He sees all the angles and wasn't afraid to play to bink the big slot jackpot.

Well done, Chainsaw. Well done. 👍

Parisron, thank you brother, that crap is pure gold. Both the interviewer and Chainsaw were awesome. This is in my top 5 posts of the year.

"The slots speak to me and they tell me which ones to play."

I love this. It makes him sound like he is crazy, and at the same time it is completely true: If you ask the right machine the right question, it will tell you whether or not it is in a playable state.

My only guess is they monitor the amount of $ going into the machine over time. When it gets over a certain threshold, that triggers +EV state and they jump in.

They could work in teams, with one team member sitting at an adjacent machine and basically doing nothing but monitoring the suspect machine(s). Or they could pay a slots employee to watch those machines and communicate every hour or so.