Can't believe this hasn't been posted yet:
I don't believe for a moment that the game was minus EV. Allen doesn't degen on slots. He is an AP who plays with an edge. He might be playing because he is comped at Thunder Valley and doesn't want to lower his trip average because he makes several trips there a year playing in tournaments. If you are comped and don't give the casino action it's a quick way to lose your offers in the future. He gambles on machines occasionally that are just break even in expectancy but he knows when the games are positive. Anything with banked bonus games or a progressive reaches a plus EV point. You don't win every time. It doesn't matter if he was stuck 12K. In the long run it's going to cost less than 3K to win the 3K in expectancy. There is also a point based on how many banked bonus games that it becomes profitable to buy into the bonus round. I don't have the numbers on this game as it is fairly new. Chainsaw has a lot of connections with AP's so they probably provided him with numbers. They vary from casino to casino as some of the properties have a lower base return. Some places might have 85-87% and others may be closer to 90%. What's even more tricky is after these games are on the floor for while the manufacturer in this case Aristocrat comes in a "Nerfs" the game. They change the numbers where the banked bonus games become profitable. You as a patron don't know this. It's doesn't affect the regular customer because the hold of the game is same. The only thing you can rely on is other AP's at a particular location telling you their results have gotten worse. So now you have to wait for a higher number.