Tom Dwan - the missing man
How convenient is it that he just falls off the face of the earth after issuing and bailing half way through a 50k hand challenge when he goes down over a million dollars?
He come out a year or so ago and said that he has this "big" problem with FTP that he would address once he had a decent nights sleep, what ever happened here?
He agreed to pay penalties on a monthly basis for not playing an agreed amount of hands with jungle, did cates ever receive any of the penalty money? I think it's about time the community got some answers. There was a lot of money placed on the outcome of the match which never got resolved, as you can imagine anyone who took jungle's side must be pretty aggrieved.
Ike and Justin bonomo was both judges along with Ivey being escrow, from what I remember Ivey wanted nothing to do with any of the decision making after dwan went AWOL which lead to phil sending jungle his 500k back. What's the point of having judges in any bet if they can't actually enforce any rulings?
If anyone else had bailed on a bet of this size when he should have escrowed the 1.5million it would be a much bigger deal.
To add to that he's listed to play in the 500k super high roller at the aria
im asking you if you would think its scummy on jetten's end to ask to be paid if dwan unilaterally dropped him
personally i find it odd that you think its scummier to ask for money that someone owes you as opposed to stiffing
Yes.
At what point do you think Tom has the right to drop Jetton and not pay the 250k? 5 milly? 10 milly?
As many have mentioned 1.6milly make up is simply never being recovered. Jetton has 0 incentive to play well at this point and for all we know could have torched a lot just to get dropped because its the only way he thinks he gets his 250k.
This is just as likely as all other scenarios.
If this is the case do you think Tom should still pay the 250k?
Yes.
At what point do you think Tom has the right to drop Jetton and not pay the 250k? 5 milly? 10 milly?
As many have mentioned 1.6milly make up is simply never being recovered. Jetton has 0 incentive to play well at this point and for all we know could have torched a lot just to get dropped because its the only way he thinks he gets his 250k.
This is just as likely as all other scenarios.
If this is the case do you think Tom should still pay the 250k?
there is literally no number of losses on the stake where he can unilaterally decide to not pay the loan. they aren't related.
I am badly in need of a TLDR. What exactly happened?
well to fair you've finally made a good observation. you're right. i don't like most grinders/pros. way too many are scummy and /or have no clue how to act at the table. it's also funny how many are really broke and trying to pretend they're something they're not.i've also played with people a lot better than me, who are super ethical and fun to play with at the table. Those people I respect and think more people should try and emulate. this shouldn't make it difficult for you to have dialogue w
You keep saying he dusted 1.6M of Dwan's money. The guy was playing like a 30k ABI. Losing 1.6M is a totally normal downswing that will occur in those games. Jetten also was up millions over those few years including the 1.6M downswing, so clearly that amount of money is not unrecoverable. If you don't have any understanding or experience with staking and how it works than why do you think you should hold such a strong opinion on who is in the wrong? Jetten also says the 250k owed is from Dwan buying off stake pieces of other tournaments and not from a cashout of profits on the deal. Either could be lying but Dwan seems the more likely one with what we know.
Dwan also only owns half the makeup so 800k. The other half is owned by Ike.
Yes.
At what point do you think Tom has the right to drop Jetton and not pay the 250k? 5 milly? 10 milly?
As many have mentioned 1.6milly make up is simply never being recovered. Jetton has 0 incentive to play well at this point and for all we know could have torched a lot just to get dropped because its the only way he thinks he gets his 250k.
This is just as likely as all other scenarios.
If this is the case do you think Tom should still pay the 250k?
Tom never has the right to drop him and keep the 250k. He can drop him or sell the makeup to someone else if he wants but the 250k has nothing to do with it. And as mentioned above, the 1.6M is definitely not unrecoverable. I understand it sounds like a ton of money but this is a completely normal amount of $ to downswing when you are playing extremely high stakes tournaments. Context is important.
Sigh. Love y’all.
You keep saying he dusted 1.6M of Dwan's money. The guy was playing like a 30k ABI. Losing 1.6M is a totally normal downswing that will occur in those games..
I'm not sure I'm understanding. If the ABI was 30k, doesn't that mean he played 53 tournaments without a significant score? Is 53 tourneys without a significant score a normal downswing?
I'm not sure I'm understanding. If the ABI was 30k, doesn't that mean he played 53 tournaments without a significant score? Is 53 tourneys without a significant score a normal downswing?
53 is nothing yeah. For example I’m -220 BIs over 900 lifetime tracked MTTs online and that’s after winning 90 BIs back recently. Never been out of the red.
Obv field size matters and Jettens average field was probably smaller at his ABI which helps cap downswings. But still.
Backing deals usually don't work out. It is inherently going to change the behavior and play of the person and just makes poker even more difficult than it already is. The moment they're down or into makeup it just feels like an insurmountable hole they're in, and most relationships end poorly with the backer cancelling or the horse going outside the bounds of the deal and losing. Someone being willing to stake you in a game where you lose 1.5m is very close to a gift, the same as people back
This is why a lot of the high stakes regs nowadays just sell pieces, not backing. They do swaps too but I'd say backing and staking has changed quite a bit in recent yrs. Ive staked a handful of ppl and it almost always ended poorly except when they were playing under me on some app and I was able to control all the finances and earn rb. But no point ruining friendships backing someone as if theyre needing to be fully backed that is almost always a red flag.
You keep saying he dusted 1.6M of Dwan's money. The guy was playing like a 30k ABI. Losing 1.6M is a totally normal downswing that will occur in those games. Jetten also was up millions over those few years including the 1.6M downswing, so clearly that amount of money is not unrecoverable. If you don't have any understanding or experience with staking and how it works than why do you think you should hold such a strong opinion on who is in the wrong? Jetten also says the 250k owed is from D
I said he dusted 1.6 m of Dwans money bc he did. Strange right? I didn't say he did it on purpose or anything like that but he lost it.
It is extremely unlikely he ever gets out of that hole playing on Dwan's stake. That's a big problem with makeup - once you're buried your interests don't align with your staker.
Additionally just bc Jetten may have done well 10 years ago or whatever doesn't make him a good investment today.
I don't need to be involved in staking to understand what should happen between 2 friends on a business deal.
I'm not sure I'm understanding. If the ABI was 30k, doesn't that mean he played 53 tournaments without a significant score? Is 53 tourneys without a significant score a normal downswing?
This is what I was thinking as well. I get that $1.6 mil may not be as much as it sounds to most people, but that is still a sh*t ton of consistent losing to get to $1.6mil playing 30K ABI's. 30K BI tourneys also don't usually have very large fields. So you are telling me that this guy averages 53 fairly small field tourneys without a cash and that is totally normal for the high stakes world and not a massive, out of the ordinary downswing?
Sorry, I am not buying that. Still doesn't mean that Tom doesn't look bad either, in almost every way. Morally, financially, personally, mentally, it all looks bad to me. He doesn't seem to have any balance to his life and doesn't seem happy at all. IMO, he feels like he pretty much ruined his life with some of the decisions he had made and would definitely go back and change a lot of things before his life was sent down this chaotic path of craziness. Just my meaningless two cents.
The 2010s were the heyday of the EPTs. Explains how you can fire off 53 30ks fully backed lol. Higher ROIs enabled ppl to be looser with money/staking their friends back then.
I said he dusted 1.6 m of Dwans money bc he did. Strange right? I didn't say he did it on purpose or anything like that but he lost it.
It is extremely unlikely he ever gets out of that hole playing on Dwan's stake. That's a big problem with makeup - once you're buried your interests don't align with your staker.
Additionally just bc Jetten may have done well 10 years ago or whatever doesn't make him a good investment today.
I don't need to be involved in staking to understand what should happen be
Dusted seemed to imply he lost it in -ev fashion. If just using it as an equivalent to lost then fair enough.
Again, that's just completely untrue. 1.6M is a super normal downswing in these games. All of these tournaments have 500k+ up top and multiple have 1-2M up top. He could be out of the hole in a very short amount of time, as little as a single tournament. Without context the 1.6M sounds like a ton but it's not.
I agree doing well 10 years ago doesn't make someone a good investment today but that's not at all what was said. Over the same time period that he lost the 1.6M on Dwan/Ike's stake he was up 4-5M overall. The stake just didn't cover all of his action.
Not having an understanding of how staking deals work or what normal mtt variance is makes it impossible to have a fully formed opinion.
53 is nothing yeah. For example I’m -220 BIs over 900 lifetime tracked MTTs online and that’s after winning 90 BIs back recently. Never been out of the red.
Obv field size matters and Jettens average field was probably smaller at his ABI which helps cap downswings. But still.
You suck at MTTs and so does Jetten if he lost 53 BIs
This is what I was thinking as well. I get that $1.6 mil may not be as much as it sounds to most people, but that is still a sh*t ton of consistent losing to get to $1.6mil playing 30K ABI's. 30K BI tourneys also don't usually have very large fields. So you are telling me that this guy averages 53 fairly small field tourneys without a cash and that is totally normal for the high stakes world and not a massive, out of the ordinary downswing?
Sorry, I am not buying that. Still doesn't mean that To
30k ABI was a quick estimate, there's a lot of 50k's and 100k's in these triton series so it could be even higher and therefore less avg bi. But 50 buyin downswings even in small 50-200 person field tournaments is unfortunately incredibly normal. MTT variance is gross and literally every player there if they play long enough will have these stretches or worse. Losing 53 abi also doesn't mean you went 53 tournaments straight without a cash. That would probably be abnormal for these field sizes, although bricking 20-30 in a row I'd imagine occurs fairly frequently.
You are welcome not to buy it, you are entitled to feel how you feel about it. These are just the facts of how it works though. MTT variance is worse than you think and there's a reason almost none of these guys are rolled for high stakes tournaments despite being very good players. You need insane amounts of money to be properly rolled.
If your edge is small, like 5% ROI, you can easily go on a 100 buyin downswing. This is true even when field size is small and variance is much lower. Like 9 man STTs, a 53 BI downswing is not that big of a deal. You might even do that in a single day if you are mass tabling.
it just seems like a lot of people who dont understand poker / gambling / variance / money with extremely strong takes in the thread. tbh i kind of think a lot of the arguments are in bad faith. i jcant imagine anyone actually thinking "well he lost money on a staking deal so its scummy to ask for 250k that he is owed".
QUOTE=editundo;58512516]If your edge is small, like 5% ROI, you can easily go on a 100 buyin downswing. This is true even when field size is small and variance is much lower. Like 9 man STTs, a 53 BI downswing is not that big of a deal. You might even do that in a single day if you are mass tabling.[/QUOTE]
Why is anyone even playing? How many 30k+ tourneys run every year? If 5% is a good/decent ROI you could be the absolute best player ever to play the game and still get destroyed over a lifetime sample? What is the point?
Off topic saver analogy:
Jetten is traiding shitcoins way over his head on dwans $$. Jetten binks life changing money to him (250k)
Jetten tells dwan ”thanks bro for this opportunity. Im so grateful but I really need the money right now. I should quit while Im ahead”
Dwan tells Jetten ”sure bestie Jetten. We can settle at this point and I will pay you 250k in a few weeks. But since you have been crushing this crypto thing I think we should continue with our deal. You will get the 250k eighter way”
”Wow papa tom, really? Are you sure about this?”
”Go nuts jettie-boy, I believe in you”
Fast forward to 1.6 m downer; who is a scumbag in scenario 350 when Jetten gets 0$?
Why is anyone even playing? How many 30k+ tourneys run every year? If 5% is a good/decent ROI you could be the absolute best player ever to play the game and still get destroyed over a lifetime sample? What is the point?
5% is a terrible ROI for most live MTTs (unless its like a super high roller). The appeal of live MTTs is that it's possible to have a much higher ROI than 5% (a lot of players think they have like 50%). So you play not that many games, but you do it with a bigger edge. But if someone overestimates their edge, and in reality they are only slightly winning (5% ROI as opposed to 50%), a downswing of 50 BI is a regular occurrence.
