Tom Dwan - the missing man
How convenient is it that he just falls off the face of the earth after issuing and bailing half way through a 50k hand challenge when he goes down over a million dollars?
He come out a year or so ago and said that he has this "big" problem with FTP that he would address once he had a decent nights sleep, what ever happened here?
He agreed to pay penalties on a monthly basis for not playing an agreed amount of hands with jungle, did cates ever receive any of the penalty money? I think it's about time the community got some answers. There was a lot of money placed on the outcome of the match which never got resolved, as you can imagine anyone who took jungle's side must be pretty aggrieved.
Ike and Justin bonomo was both judges along with Ivey being escrow, from what I remember Ivey wanted nothing to do with any of the decision making after dwan went AWOL which lead to phil sending jungle his 500k back. What's the point of having judges in any bet if they can't actually enforce any rulings?
If anyone else had bailed on a bet of this size when he should have escrowed the 1.5million it would be a much bigger deal.
To add to that he's listed to play in the 500k super high roller at the aria
If your edge is small, like 5% ROI, you can easily go on a 100 buyin downswing. This is true even when field size is small and variance is much lower. Like 9 man STTs, a 53 BI downswing is not that big of a deal. You might even do that in a single day if you are mass tabling.
It's not only if edge is small that this can happen. I recently went on a 100 BI downswing on an app site where I have 51% ROI, I was still up for the month due to a 120x ABI bink at the start of the month. Granted these were mostly 8% field paid PKO so maybe higher variance but in general people tend to always underestimate MTT variance. People like kebabkungen who haven't put in mtt volume don't get it and think 53 BI in either direction means anything at all...it doesn't.
The sample size for MTT variance to even out is never reached live so it really is just gambling at that point, yes the theoretical ROIs can be huge as they are lol-soft but nobody should be reliant on live mtt alone because the variance factor is far too high.
it just seems like a lot of people who dont understand poker / gambling / variance / money with extremely strong takes in the thread. tbh i kind of think a lot of the arguments are in bad faith. i jcant imagine anyone actually thinking "well he lost money on a staking deal so its scummy to ask for 250k that he is owed".
The whole speculation is fairly pointless anyway as we don't really know who is telling all/some of/none of the truth
It's not only if edge is small that this can happen. I recently went on a 100 BI downswing on an app site where I have 51% ROI, I was still up for the month due to a 120x ABI bink at the start of the month. Granted these were mostly 8% field paid PKO so maybe higher variance but in general people tend to always underestimate MTT variance. People like kebabkungen who haven't put in mtt volume don't get it and think 53 BI in either direction means anything at all...it doesn't.
I meant to specify I was talking about the next 50 games you play being a 50 buyin downswing, which is different than just occasionally having a 50 BI downswing. Everyone occasionally has a 50BI downswing. I think even though the sample is small and variance is very high, the difference in winrate between 5% and 50% is nontrivial there, if you are talking about the likelihood of the next 50 games all being losses. But I phrased it wrong to make it sound like that would only happen for low ROI players.
Peter Jetten complained about Dwan not really being responsive/active in paying him a debt owed from staking. Haralabos chimed in (this is all on twitter) that he was also owed by Dwan.
Dwan had half a podcast and said the situations weren't as clear as indicated, but didn't really provide much extra info. Jetten is about 1.6 million into makeup on a staking deal with Dwan (and allegedly Ike), and that's why Dwan is slow in paying. Haralabos allegedly skirted the rules (Dwan's mumbling) of the NBA by having Dwan place ghostbets for him (since Bob is banned/limited from some books), and Dwan is disputing the actual sum owed also.
There is some other debt out there, most notably Jungleman's challenge debt (Dwan has paid sidebets and some large penalties but probably still technically owes more. Jungleman weighed in said that he's okay with the situation and that Dwan is a good guy who stuck up for him a few times.
Lastly, people are still alleging that Dwan owes the "triad" many millions of dollars. This is an old rumor from his time in Macau, and the more likely story is that he has some debts/favors owed to the gamerunners which is likely Paul Phua who organizes the big Triton games. While he likely owes Paul Phua tons of money, Phua is a professional and doesn't air his business out on twitter like a fool, nor does he want Dwan's quality of life impacted. This is like a dealer being on the sheet at a poker club; it's an ideal situation for the owner and he doesn't want the dealer to deviate in any way from their current situation, nor is he going to keep the dealer from putting SOME money in their pocket.
ITT there have been some screenshots of twitter posts, and discussion of whether Tom is right or not. All this is hypothetical since Tom nor the other side has really decided on a middle ground of what is owed and why. At some point, people began arguing the side of bookies banning sharps, and this is when the thread ceased to have anything in it but analogies and arguing. Hope this helps.
solid
If your edge is small, like 5% ROI, you can easily go on a 100 buyin downswing. This is true even when field size is small and variance is much lower. Like 9 man STTs, a 53 BI downswing is not that big of a deal. You might even do that in a single day if you are mass tabling.
5% roi? you can go on like 10k buyin downswings
I don't think so. I was talking about small field MTTs like this. EV is 5k buyins if you play 100k tourneys (black line). 10k buyin downswing would be like DOUBLE the distance from the top green line to the bottom red line.
Edit: sorry I gave a totally wrong explanation then edited it. I think it's pretty clear though 10k buyins is not a realistic swing.
https://www.primedope.com/tournament-var...
That field size is pretty small though. With bigger fields you are right I suppose.
So you basically would treat it exactly as if Peter owed 1.6 mil to Tom?
Horses don't owe their backers the make up when they lose.
I've never staked or been staked. I've also never lent or borrowed money to play poker or for someone to play poker and I've been playing a long time. I get that in the poker world I'm in the minority to have never done any of those things. I also turned down someone buying me into the 10k plo event a few years ago where he would have given me 30 percent of the winnings. I didn't even think I was +ev in the field at all, and while it would have been a good deal for me (nice free roll obviously) it would have been a bad deal for him and I'd feel like **** for torching his 10k even though it doesn't mean much to him. Now if for example the wynn had said "hey we're not gonna hit some guarantee for here's a 10k entry for free but we get 70 percent if you cash" i would have snap taken it.
I've also had people offer to put me in big games I know I'm a dog in and I would never take it.
Sick brag. Poinless and irrelevant, but sick.
Would I played backed if someone owed me 250k ? No i'd want my 250 k first. But Jetten did play backed then torched 1.6 million of Dwan's money. So not sure what your point is.
- Why would you need your 250k first?
- I'm now pretty sure you get my point since you carefully ignored the 3 or 4 questions I asked that where before the ones you answered 🙂. If I'm wrong answer those other questions and I'll clarify what my point is
You keep mentioning that technically Dwan owes him 250k
Technically, morally and moreover logically
Most people on here say you're probably right. So this isn't some gotcha amazing point you think you're making. Where everyone disagrees with you is almost all of us think it's extremely scummy to do that to your friend.
Nice try.
I'm not the first one you tried to explain to you:
- How staking deals work
- Variance
- What a freeroll is
I've seen at least 3 others trying to explain those to you, and you insulting 1 of them.
All those things are not a matter of feelings or opinions, but facts.
you are clearly a person with no morals or ethics who would happily take advantage of your friends. You would have snap taken my 10k plo deal if a friend offered it knowing fully well he was getting screwed bc it benefited you. Sadly there are plenty like you in the poker world
Cause I'd refuse to get freerolled?
1) Jetten said publicly that Tom owed him ~250k. Haralabob jumped in and said Dwan owed him 350k.
2) Tom did the most confusing interviews ever saying:
- it's not clear what he owes Haralabob.
- That Jetten is in 1.6 million make up. So he should not pay him
- Ike fronted the buy ins for Peter. (Not that he had the other half of Jetten's deal)
- He paid 30k to Peter (Peter confirmed).
- That the money Peter asked was from a staking deal cash out.
3) Peter said the debt was from pieces Tom bought and didn't give him the money. He also said he has received an other 100k from Tom since
4) Doug goes on a stream and says Tom owe 30 mllion to some scary guys.
surely tom beats poker in macau right? i mean he is better than the business man there... did he lose that much money playing poker or did he degen out in other casino games?
Pretty sure his debts are poker related and otherwise, the most reasonable scenario is that he lost too much in one spot or spent too much recklessly and whoever was backing him (the dangerous guys) pulled the plug and said **** it we’re not giving you anymore money
Games could also be harder to find, might not even be allowed to play in them
Peter Jetten complained about Dwan not really being responsive/active in paying him a debt owed from staking. Haralabos chimed in (this is all on twitter) that he was also owed by Dwan.
Dwan had half a podcast and said the situations weren't as clear as indicated, but didn't really provide much extra info. Jetten is about 1.6 million into makeup on a staking deal with Dwan (and allegedly Ike), and that's why Dwan is slow in paying. Haralabos allegedly skirted the rules (Dwan's mumbling) of t
I didn't even try to slog through Dwan's mumbo jumbo since I learned from the J4 fiasco that the dude basically thinks on a different wavelength from regular humans
But piecing together all the disparate pieces, what I think can be concluded is that Dwan doesn't dispute Jetten's claim about he owes, but rather he got pissy that the dude won't give him a discount after Dwan gave him a discount on the 1.6 mil makeup. So Dwan through his mumbo jumbo meandering is saying he doesn't owe Jetten because the discount he gave Jetten for the 1.6 mil was more than what he owes him for the $200k+.
I didn't even try to slog through Dwan's mumbo jumbo since I learned from the J4 fiasco that the dude basically thinks on a different wavelength from regular humans
But piecing together all the disparate pieces, what I think can be concluded is that Dwan doesn't dispute Jetten's claim about he owes, but rather he got pissy that the dude won't give him a discount after Dwan gave him a discount on the 1.6 mil makeup. So Dwan through his mumbo jumbo meandering is saying he doesn't owe Jetten becaus
I don’t believe dwan was even arguing that… Dwan said he just wanted the receipts and would pay.
I think only people here were saying that it’s kinda messed up when you take a step back and consider the makeup figure.
But again the make up has nothing to do w these buy ins. The make up is a separate deal that jetten doesn’t owe. He either has to play more , unlikely, or dwan and the partner have to decide to cut him free way more likely. A 3rd option would be jetten buying out of make up. But that doesn’t make sense since Jetten doesn’t intend to do more deals w dwan or other people in poker. But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup. I know people in poker for 20 years who still don’t understand the concept. The horse doesn’t owe the money unless he wins it back to cover the red figure.
I don’t believe dwan was even arguing that… Dwan said he just wanted the receipts and would pay.
I think only people here were saying that it’s kinda messed up when you take a step back and consider the makeup figure.
But again the make up has nothing to do w these buy ins. The make up is a separate deal that jetten doesn’t owe. He either has to play more , unlikely, or dwan and the partner have to decide to cut him free way more likely. A 3rd option would be jetten buying out of make up. But th
The entire concept of staking is the staker is putting up the money, sure you could buy out of makeup to get even and get a better payout in the future but besides that the staker is responsible for the money at all times.
I don’t believe dwan was even arguing that… Dwan said he just wanted the receipts and would pay.
I think only people here were saying that it’s kinda messed up when you take a step back and consider the makeup figure.
But again the make up has nothing to do w these buy ins. The make up is a separate deal that jetten doesn’t owe. He either has to play more , unlikely, or dwan and the partner have to decide to cut him free way more likely. A 3rd option would be jetten buying out of make up. But th
Dwan wanting receipts was just his pissy way to weasel out of what he owed. As Dwan mentioned, he and Jetten were friends so their word was good enough. Dwan suddenly "forgetting" a simple thing like how he much gave Jetten for the buyin is BS. Dwan has done the SAME thing to Haralbob. Delaying and making up excuses to not pay what he owes.
"But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup" WTFF???!! You owe the person you made the deal with. Makeup isn't some magical bucket of debt that you can just throw your losses into. Stakee has an obligation to pay back what he owes to the staker. Even if you "retired" like that lawyer girl Catlin did, if you ever go back to poker, you still owe the staker, the makeup.
Dwan wanting receipts was just his pissy way to weasel out of what he owed. As Dwan mentioned, he and Jetten were friends so their word was good enough. Dwan suddenly "forgetting" a simple thing like how he much gave Jetten for the buyin is BS. Dwan has done the SAME thing to Haralbob. Delaying and making up excuses to not pay what he owes.
"But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup" WTFF???!! You owe the person you made the deal with.
I agree w most of what you said… except make up is def a magical bucket of debt. That’s the glorious nature of playing on someone else’s dime. You only owe that money if they are dumb enough to keep putting you in!
But ya if jetten goes back to poker I agree he owes dwan then. But that’s what’s so magical. He doesn’t have to play another hand of poker and thus wouldn’t owe anything.
Dwan wanting receipts was just his pissy way to weasel out of what he owed. As Dwan mentioned, he and Jetten were friends so their word was good enough. Dwan suddenly "forgetting" a simple thing like how he much gave Jetten for the buyin is BS. Dwan has done the SAME thing to Haralbob. Delaying and making up excuses to not pay what he owes.
"But ya when you have a backer you don’t owe them the money. You owe a red figure known as makeup" WTFF???!! You owe the person you made the deal with.
Makeup is actually some magical bucket of debt in the sense that the debt only exists when the person you owe the makeup to is fully staking you in events. There is no other obligation on the horse to repay unless the backer is fully backing like agreed upon. So if Dwan is gg , then Peter doesnt have to pay him 1.6m out of pocket. Now if Dwan is not GG, then Peter cant be playing under any other deal or his own action without fulfilling his obligation playing under Dwan stake.
It's like Tom had some really good weed, and he smoked Peter down many times. Then when Tom was dry he wanted to smoke some of Peter's weed, who refused.
Makeup is actually some magical bucket of debt in the sense that the debt only exists when the person you owe the makeup to is fully staking you in events. There is no other obligation on the horse to repay unless the backer is fully backing like agreed upon. So if Dwan is gg , then Peter doesnt have to pay him 1.6m out of pocket. Now if Dwan is not GG, then Peter cant be playing under any other deal or his own action without fulfilling his obligation playing under Dwan stake.
Thanks Tom! Now I finally understand the mumbo jumbo! Magical bucket of debt! gg! of course! Jetten ACTUALLY owes you 3.2m just cuz you are you!
Looks like unsurprisingly Dwan lost the arbitration according to Jetten's twitter.
He said Dwan has an insolvency any details on that?
He might be but with Crypto at 70k I highly doubt Dwan is broke. Maybe he's not liquid but he's not broke.
hmmm funny that acr has been delaying payouts since they employed dwan, and now he can pay his debts off? 😃
