Daniel Negreanu's very own containment thread. All things Danny go here

I don't think this is anywhere near accurate. He had 12K invested over 12 hours and had less than $3K on the credit meter at the time the jackpot hit. I doubt the Buy a Bonus averages anywhere near 90% payback if you discount the jackpot win.

Ive tried just a few BAB and a couple were near busts at under $50 returned and one was around $150 for a slight profit.

wait, he was just buying the bonus for 12 hours straight?

If hes really a good advantage player who has some edge at slots when the conditions are right, I wouldnt believe a word he posts on twitter about how it went down.. why would he share to all the poker players who are known to chase any kind of minor EV.. would be stupid af.

On the other hand, his seemingly clueless posts about how to best invest the winnings and the outrage about having to pick between annuity and lump sum makes me doubt that hes a skilled advantage player, as stuff like this should be well known to him already if he is.

Its the same thing as a card counter asking a dealer if they can double down on soft 14

You realize it is not only possible, but slot machines have hit jackpots on back to back spins. All of a slot machine jp or hand pay comes from the casino or syndicate but the machine odds are such that over enough spins, the house wins. But it is entirely possible that a machine can have a negative earn at a given moment.

I can also 100% guarantee that any legal slot machine, in a regulated casino, in US that is offering a prize, that prize can possibly win on the next spin. That is if there is a prize posted, it can be won. The odds to win $1000 might be 1 trillion to 1, but it is still possible.

That you claim machines are being rigged otherwise is laughable. Legit casinos don’t depend on rigging machines, They just embrace variance and live or die by the odds. Certainly they will adjust the odds more in their favor. Triple zero roulette and 6:5 blackjack prove that. But it doesn’t mean you can’t occasionally win on those crappy games.

BTW, it is very possible TB casino did not pay this or all of this JP. These large jackpots are often paid by a syndicate, especially if machines are linked across multiple casinos.

Just stating facts and reality. If you can disprove what I say, go ahead. Since you can’t, I guess your only resolve is to continue personal attacks.

I think there are more important things to something being moral, ethical, and a grift or scam than something being technically legal and stated on page 67 of the rules sheet.

And it's ok to call them out on it.

yes the mac n cheese story is 100% real and related by AK himself obv.
he was absolutely LIVID.

So some of the stuff you are saying is true other stuff not necessarily.

I have been working in gambling for a long time now. Both in casinos and for companies creating slots.

I have set up plenty of jackpots in my day.

There are usually some limitations as to when a jackpot can fall.

I would for example set up jackpots for a lot of casinos that start at amount x but cant fall before it reaches amount y.

So lets say the jackpot is shown at 500$ to start but cant fall before it hits 1000$ and not later than 5000$.

So although the jackpot is shown as 500$ its kind of nonsense and by the time the jackpot reaches the 1000$ the jackpot contributions have reached the 1000$ mark.

This is at least in off shore organisations not unusual at all.

I also wouldn't call it rigging per se. The rtp and everything is as advertised.

Now again I am unfamiliar with nevada as a jurisdiction. I am actually not very familiar with any northern american jurisdiction beside some canadian ones.

But it seems doubtful that a casino would start a jackpot at 500k for a small bundle of like 6 maybe 8 machines if it can actually fall in the next spin.

I would have to look at the exact game rules. It is also not unheard of that some part of the jackpot contribution funds the future jackpot seed. Like we have around 5% jackpot contribution of which x amount goes to the next seed until y amount in seed money is reached.

Casinos dont cheat in games, for the most part this is true and if there is cheating going on it would usually by a rogue employe.

Shady casinos usually just dont pay you out if you win. thats much easier then rigging games.

That being said, and this is a phenomenon way more common in online casinos, there are some casinos with fake games. These fake games look and at first sight behave like known games from reputable game providers but in reality are not. I would at least not trust the rtp claims of these games.

Thats hilarious!

If the machine rules and display say that that $500 JP can be hit but in reality the machine setup prevents this, that is definitely rigging a machine. It is not even debatable. And it does not happen in reputable, r3gulated casinos in the US. In fact it doesn’t happen in reputable casinos anywhere because doing it isn’t reputable. What does doing this say about you and your employer?

In the US, regardless the state regulations, what you described, is actually illegal under contract law. At least where slot machines are legal.

As to using current cash flow to preseed a future JP, that is perfectly fine. We already know that most of the coin in is not going to the presented JP amount. How companies manage their coin in is their business decision. If they fail to maintain adequate capital reserves, that is a regulator issue.

A fair game, offers a prize if you pay prize and pull the lever. If that pull cannot win the prize offered, that is it is impossible to follow the rules and win, the game is unfair and likely illegal.

Well that is a nice strawman you constructed. It is not stated on page 67 of the rules.

As noted, I am not familiar with this game, but others have stated it was printed on the machine. The large payout machines I am familiar with definitely have the annuity notice right there on the face of the machine. You don’t need to sit down, you don’t even need to read the rules display. One example I do know, the IGT wheel of fortune machines have the annuity notice printed right by the wheel.

If the company was doing what you described or similar, that is bury the notice deep in some fine print, you might have an argument. But in my experience, the proper notice is right there on the front of the machine.

man sorry i hurt your feelings by being better informed on this topic and correcting you.

You know what you just go buddy!

The machines totally start with a 500k jackpot spread across just 6 machines and they fall twice in a row all the time!

Also forget all about jackpot contributions and how jackpots are funded through the extra contribution and not the general rtp.

Go nuts have fun!

You corrected nothing. All you have shown is you work for disreputable casinos and you are willing to cheat others. What you describe is nit happening in legal casinos here. If this is happening in sketchy foreign casinos, and you facilitate it, go for it

The balance of your post is just intelligible.

HAhahahahahah man you are a ****ing idiot.

I actually work and worked for highly reputable organisations and some of the biggest gaming companies in the world.

Again i am sorry that you have a very limited understanding of whats going on in the gambling world and how casinos and game providers operate.

I would suggest you just shut your uniformed mouth before you make more of a fool of yourself.

You could for example study terms and conditions and rules of games because the explanation as to how things work are usually in there.

seriously you come in here not knowing your ass from a hole in the ground and make statements that are just flat out wrong.

you could instead just shut your uninformed mouth and get educate.

It is for example quite obvious that you do not understand the difference between a "real" progressive jackpot and the big wins that providers these days like to call jackpots although they are not.

Can you take this off topic spam discussion to PMs?

FFS you know there was a separate thread created for Kessler's jackpot win, maybe a mod can move all these irrelevant post out of DNegs into that thread.

Calm down. It's for your own good.

I didn't know Negreanu played slots. We need some more posts on how much Negreanu lost at the Series despite winning the PPC to get this thread back on track,

Daniel just needed to bink a big slot bonus to have had a winning WSOP. ;-)

Daniel's frantic WSOP schedule (besides the fact that fields have gotten progressively harder over the last decade) is the reason he hasn't been able to perform to his fullest potential. He stated this in his 2023 wrap-up vlog. Either way, he deserves credit for his work ethic which is unmatched compared to 90% of poker players. I'm sure if Daniel wanted to he could play all the Triton's he wants but he's since far transcended the "poker-pro" lifestyle he once had. He's a businessman, or a man with business ventures, rather.

Daniel will always be one of the most charismatic people in poker. That's what makes him so likeable. It also gets him handsomely paid by GGPoker.

DN is old school. He knows some GTO, but isn't going to play as closely to what a solver recommends than many high stakes tournament players would. There are other issues, such as tournament strategy, particularly late in tournaments. Some people may be limping or making big open shoves. DN is probably better at picking up reads from how a player acts, as well as betting patterns and sizings, than a typical GTO player. It could also be tricky for some players to play against someone who is not playing GTO. Not sure the author is a better tournament player than DN because the author makes less deviations from GTO.

Of the hands shown in the video, it seems like DN made a mistake calling down 3 streets on a low board with AK. In another hand, he checks back the river with a set of kings and about a psb left with a backdoor flush possibility and straight possibilities. That also seems questionable.

In another hand, he flats a 3! with AK. It is pointed out by the author and by DN in his video that that is DN's style. There are problems with this, partly in having a balanced 4! range with that. Then the board comes K87J. Flop goes x/x, turn and river are x/c. Video author says DN should have led or checkraised the turn and river. Author doesn't mention villain had JJ and DN would have been stacked if he played preflop, turn, or river "correctly". Against 3-bettor, DN has to be worried about AA/KK/JJ, and maybe DN picked up live reads. Also, his style to play passively as here.

There is an original Star Trek where a computer is running the Enterprise and gets it into a terrible mess. Captain Kirk takes over, sends messages in a code he knows is broken, using information on their adversary. Then he exceeds the speed the ship is supposed to go, etc.

There was a real case of a Canadian passenger jet that ran out of fuel at 13,000 meters, due to mistakes with conversion to metric units in fueling and faulty fuel gages. The pilot was a former military glider pilot and landing safely at an airport that had been converted to a racetrack in the middle of the races. In another case, a Greek 747 with 418 aboard lost power on takeoff with an engine blowing up, etc. Pilot with combat experience raised landing gears at 15 meters against manual. Plane flew over city at 60 meters. All simulations later showed it crashing, but it also landed safely.

So there is an advantage to having a pilot who knows how to fly, rather than just use various computer aids and checklists. Maybe that is partly how DN has won two $300K entry fee tournaments recently despite playing "incorrectly".

Thank you for the comment!

Daniel is living legend and Im nowhere near his skills, even if there are spots that I would probably play better than him. It's much easier to judge plays when I can just run some software and compare results. The goal of this video wasn't to show how bad Daniel is - it was to show how good solvers are. Ofcourse there are many very succesful players that play more of a GTO style, but none of them could replicate 1 to 1 what solvers are doing even if they try their harderst.

What I didn't like in Daniels vlogs (and I watched them all) is not that he made some bad plays, cause everyone makes them - its his OopsieMeter - where he admitted to just few mistakes (and few of them were really small or not important) during whole WSOP series - and that's just delusional to think that you play almost perfect poker, when its impossible to even get close.

The AK vs JJ - its just one hand - and yes, he would probably bust playing other line - but this is just being result oriented and thats never good argument in poker discussion. Its like saying folding Kings to single raise is good, because it happens that opponent has AA.
And last argument, that about winning 2 tournaments... this is tournament poker, everyone can win some tournaments. Phil Hellmuth has 16 bracelets and If the solvers were human and saw him play, they would probably have a heart attack.

That's a point. It wouldn't be good for him to discuss one hand for a half hour with charts like some RIO videos, but DN doesn't show a GTO analysis of his hands, and discuss why he deviated or if it was a mistake.

DN has at least studied GTO. Hellmuth's play wasn't good technically before GTO. His short stack play is horrible. He also made basic technical mistakes when he won bracelets in razz and NL 2-7 draw.

There are exceptions, such as Haxton, but most of the old school and poker boom players, including Blom and Dwan, are not much into GTO. Some are not playing high stakes now or are playing PLO or mixed games.

yes, I know Daniel Studies some GTO, his play after his HU challenge vs Doug showed that he still wants to improve, his game is much better than few years ago - But I think he is behind all the GTO wizards and wouldnt be favorite in most HR lineups. They just put much more work in the lab and its hard to overcome with just experience or live reads. The one place he could have some adventage is sth u mentioned: he sometimes might play strange line or sizings that are not GTO approved and it might take these players to a territory that they're not feeling that comfortable. I would compare it to chess, where the best players don't play objectively best/top lines of engines in openings, cause they're well known by all top players - so the best of the best - like Magnus will deliberately make a mistake early to throw off prep of opponent, and then outplay them.

Against weaker players he might even have some tricks that other pros won't use cause theyre not GTO, But in the end, in most Highrollers the field is mostly top regs and if you play against Chidwicks or Linuses of the world, the best you can do is to try to play GTO to your best ability, and limit your losses.

you mentioned Haxton, but there are some more oldschool players that are still on top of the game. First names that come to my mind are Patrik Antonius and Eric Seidel, but Phil Ivey who probably never ran a solver also picked up a lot and is still competitive.

Yea but they're playing plo and mixed bc there's a lot more money to be made in them.
Most recs who want to play for big money don't want to play NL these days.