I'm going to post what Matt Marinelli posted on his twitter (#1 online cash game player in America).
He simulated 6 bots
Mason MalmuthI think your understanding statistical theory needs to improve. In this example, everyone has a win rate of zero, so the difference will be determined by luck (and no information is given as to what the size of the standard deviation is). But if you were in a game where some players played poorly and others played well. the expert players would not need such a long length of time to show a positive win rate. This length of time again will also depend on the standard deviation. See my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics - Expanded Edition for more discussion.
Mason
IhateJJImagine 6 people sitting at a table, each flipping a fair coin ten times.
One player flips heads seven times
One player flips heads six times
Two players flip heads five times
One player flips heads three times
One player flips heads one time
Discuss....
walkbyIt's a valid thread. Some people might be blown away by the winrates some people have (especially at nosebleed stakes) and not understand variance might play a huge role in it.
