99 UTG on bubble of satellite 5-handed
This happened to a friend so don't have the formatted hand history and all amounts are a rough estimate. Satellite was an £11 buy-in, to win entry to a tournament costing £150 (the Goliath). 4 seats available, 5 players remain.
BB 20BBs
SB 20BBs
BTN 40BBs
CO 7BBs
HJ 9BBs (Hero)
Hero is dealt 99. Curious to know the correct play here? Hero shoved and busted in this hand.
Another friend says this is a fold, and that we should fold and wait for the smaller stack to bust, but I disagree and think this is too nitty? As we only have a slight lead over the small stack.
Come on, you know he shoved, got called by two overs and lost the flip.
The ICM not considering future action is incorrect. You need to steal or be blinded out. You will be in a difficult situation going through the blinds and the levels go up and you could have 5xBB in 3 hands. If the other short stack steals, you will be in bad shape. They aren't going to have a hand to call with that often, and you win often. Doubling up is huge.
Satellites are quite interesting, because the strategy is very different from cash tournaments.
The ICM not considering future action is incorrect. You need to steal or be blinded out. You will be in a difficult situation going through the blinds and the levels go up and you could have 5xBB in 3 hands. If the other short stack steals, you will be in bad shape. They aren't going to have a hand to call with that often, and you win often. Doubling up is huge.
Satellites are quite interesting, because the strategy is very different from cash tournaments.
You either double up, get knocked out or pick up 2.5 bbs.
Maybe smeags will give us the results.
The OP says "Hero shoved and busted this hand."
Yeah, I am curious about the detail.
Btw, the last live satellite I played I busted with 99 with the second shortest stack. Utg, paying 8, just combined to 9 handed, blinds would double next hand and we played with a BB ante. I shove, around 9bbs, short stack from utg +2 calls all in, bb with around 50 calls. Aj and kq. Both hit and I lose main and side pots. BB was 3-4 in chips. He was a cash player that I was friendly with who I thought might fold it heads up but his logic was he could take out either short stack and end the tournament.
I don’t think we are getting an update. Swissnit bumped a 2022 post and OP hasn’t been active since July of 2022.
I do believe this is a shove, unless perhaps any of BTN, SB or BB is a clueless maniac.
The difference between our and CO:s stacks aren't big enough to justify a nit fold here. And if he's somewhat competent he also should understand this may be the best position for him to shove if Hero folds. This is because both blinds - again unless they are clueless - has the least incentive of all players to call an AI. That's because their risk of bubbling is small if they just sit tight (at least ATM),
This was a 2 year old bump to post a lot of misunderstanding and erroneous analysis, what?!
