Deal Making

I typically will accept deals if they are financially beneficial. Similarly, I will accept deals if the other players are better than me or if I have no reads. I will also accept fair deals with people who I like playing with. One time I accepted a deal with a guy who gave me the trophy (we never played it out at the end). Recently a guy who I liked at a local club wanted to do a fair deal which I accepted and told me he didn't want the trophy. It took about 30 minutes to win though...

I will reject deals if they don't favor me. Like one time a guy said he would take the deal if I got $2,000 less and he got $2,000 more. So I rejected it then and there.

I also reject deals if there is a short stack (and it isn't me) because I find that people don't play as well when they can move up.

I will always reject a deal if I have solid reads. Usually it is just one player but recently it was 3 out of the last 4 players.

Mostly I don't accept deals because most players don't play much against excellent players with 5 or fewer players at the table. Especially 3 way and HU. In the last 10 months I won 3 tournaments where there were raises of over 30 blinds when 3 way or HU that got other players knocked out.

I also find that HU some players get impatient and make costly mistakes because they want the tourney over with. Many years ago at Foxwoods at a final table I overheard a player on the phone say that he was going to be late for some kind of party. So with a monster I raised big and he called with a draw, got knocked out and looked happy.

As for bounties, especially progressive, most deals involve keeping your bounty stack. Mystery bounties though would mean finishing up to get the final bounties. However, part of the deal could be to share the final mystery bounties.

My concern with deals is also about whether or not the casino changes their pay outs. There have been some that don't and you have to trust that the person collecting 1st place money will distribute it properly. And if it is over $5,000 everyone has to take into account taxes or somehow figure out how to do it in writing so taxes will be done fairly and correctly. I did hear about a case at a casino where the 1st place guy just left with the 1st place money and didn't distribute it. So I wouldn't do this at places like that (if they still exist).

The last thing I will say concerns deals when we get over $5,000 in the US. As a player who pays taxes on winnings I don't care if we are over or under $5,000 net. But there are many players who want to take home winnings just under $5,000. On a couple of occasions I asked and got 20% more than I was supposed to get to offset being over $5,000 while everyone else was just under. One time a guy asked me to give him $200 on the side and I said absolutely not. Lol.

I think deal making is a skill that is under utilized. Why should the payouts of the tournament be adhered to if all the players agree.

There are two spots I will always deal: 1. If average stack is around 10-12bbs and the luck factor exceeds any skill factor. 2. As chipleader, I will always take 25% of the difference between 1 & 2nd and offer it to the remaining players.

Generally, I never agree to give anyone first place money without playing it out.

Story time- I remember one time in a daily in AC, 3 left and the big chip stack leader wanted 1st money and the other guy at table was fine with it. Im like dude he’s gotta take all the chips to win- we played it out and guy with massive chip lead finished 3rd after a little bad luck- I’m really anti dealing unless it’s heads up and play has gone long time so a long day/ I chopped for 52k in 2023 heads-up when if I won I got 69k. No doubt I have skill edge and chip advantage but it was 4am in morning over a super long day.

Btw the cat 3 way with chip lead was a bad player and wanted to not chop. I’m like I’m fine if we icm chop but no way I’m giving you first place money. I told him icm chop was his best interest but he didn’t listen- he was open limping etc and Hendon mob no scores so i lold he didn’t listen to me.

Always offer a good deal for yourself where you take over icm. Sometimes people make say ok but very unlikely. Idk in most tournies, I think I have a huge skill advantage with 3-4 left but this can be limited if stacks are shallow in a shove/fold spot. I agree that when stacks are 10-20bb average- it’s tough to not be a flip fest which can be annoying. At 40bb though, I’m never chopping if average stack is 30+ which happens in good structure mtts late.

Heads up can suck af 20-40bb avg stack bc one needs heat during heads up to win outright. I think your financial situation should dictate how likely you are to chop. Me I love playing mtts out especially if 2nd or 3rd place are going to be sick $$$$ scores. I’m fine wearing some variance if I think I win more often than my chip stack dictates. Honestly if I have 30% of chips 3 way, I think I’m going to win over that 30% of time if a killer isn’t still in the tourny which I find to be the case most of the time. I play $400-800 mtts normally though so field can be weaker generally late. Always deal if you are playing too tight bc you worry about a pay jump
I think. I love 3-4 players left bc you can do a lot of quirky stuff where you take on risk but can fold to an allin say for example you 3 or 4 bet and make the other player have to take the all in spot- a lot of folks are going to be way too tight and stack off much tighter than what one would think is right when short handed.

Short handed poker is an art form a lot of live players don’t have experience with. I’m much more likely to chop with an internet wizard Vs a 40-60 year old guy that doesn’t have that online experience of late final table play.

Isn't deal making using icm calculations a GTO move?

Hmm if 3 players are left. One has 40% of chips, one has 30%, and the other 30%. Let’s say for example I have 30% of chips left and I think I can win 35%-40% because I have a skill edge- isn’t it better to wear the variance and go for it?

No question, I think chopping should be determined on “big” the money is for you. Me personally- if I’m playing a $3k for example I might chop in a spot where if it was a $400- I might say F it and just go for the W.

Idk is it GTO to go for an icm chop when you have a skill edge and will win at a higher % of
The time that chips would dictate. If all players were equal and you had 30% of chips in play, you win 30/100 simulations. If you study and actually have experience at FTs from numerous online and live mtts though, no question one will have a skill edge at majority of FTs honestly.

I think you missed my point. Does the icm calculator give you the GTO amount that you are indifferent to whether it is accepted? Just as a gto betting strategy has you betting an amount you are indifferent to a fold or call.

OP, I am going to try to keep this conversation going by going through your scenarios one at a time. You threw in alot of different factors, that are discussion worthy, but it's hard to answer all at once.

I negotiate for a living so my motto is why rely on cards and luck if you can use your mind to create a desired outcome. So I always want to at least talk about a chop if deep in the tournament and there are real icm issues, which are usually most obvious at the ft.

1. 2 people left, same skill level plenty of play. If I have a chip lead of 4-1 or less, I would offer up 25% of the difference between first and second. If I had a 5-1 or more advantage, I would tell other guy that I would be willing to even chop it if he comes within 40% of the chips but given the current chip distribution I am not going to insult him with an offer but if he wants to look at icm, I am willing.

I do this for two reasons besides he may accept, 1) if he becomes cl, I have laid groundwork for a reciprocating offer 2) if he catches up, I can offer the 25% of difference and give him some reward for battling back from a severely short stack, even if he doesn't get an even chop.

I play in a rec heavy room where if I get hu with certain players we are even chopping no matter the chip stacks in the daily tournaments. There are also guys I won't ever chop with even if it is in my best interest because of our history.

2. I played our local 300 tournament yesterday. Around 70 players and a 16;000 price pool. Paying eight. At eight handed average stack was 258k, just about 12 bbs. Chip leader has 350k, short stack has 100k. Cl says he will take first place and let everyone else split. We laugh. One round later we are down to 6 players. Short stack has doubled to a little below average. Chip leader is now crippled having lost three big pots in a row and of course he now wants to talk chop. He goes out he next hands and before he gets paid we chop the remaining 5 even chop. The former chip leader starts squawking about us chopp8ng and someone told him “pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.” He cost himself approximately 1600 by thinking when he had 20+% of the chips in play that he deserved first place.

The short stack at 8, happened to be the chip leader the week before and had cut deals with the two of the other players in the money, so even though he was still the shortest stack and was in the bb at a new level, no one was trying to nickel and dime him on a chop.

So, the short stack when we hit the money, would have made 500.00 for eighth. Instead, he chopped for just under 3k. The chip leader, instead of getting 3k, got around 1400.

To answer a few of your questions, we don’t do progressive or mystery bounties in our live dailies, only knockout bounties which sometime become an issue with the chopping but usually we just keep them. Also, the short stacks chips have the most icm value, usually double, which is why they should want to talk icm chop,

To answer OP's questions...

1.
If chip stacks and skill levels are even, then it usually makes sense to make a deal. At that point it really depends on your tolerance for variance as to whether you want to keep playing it out. (The bigger the score is for you relative to your bankroll or other financial considerations, the lower your tolerance for variance should be.) Plus there's always the factor of saving the time it would take to play it out.

Of course, really even is rarely the case, but even when I think I have an edge I'm open to a deal if stacks are getting short enough that that edge is going to matter less than who gets the big hands. (Especially if I can get a premium in the deal for my skill edge.)

2.
I'm not really sure what the questions that need answering are here, but I'll try.

I don't really think the medium stacks should want to get involved with a big stack any more in a PKO. The biggest adjustment may be that since the big stack's range may be wider in an effort to collect bounties, you can call a little lighter, but the ICM effects still kinda handcuff you here, maybe more so because of the bounties. You don't want to be getting in situations where you have a significant chance of busting before a shorter stack, of course, but you also don't want to lose the opportunity to bust them yourself and win their bounties.

If you're short enough that the likelihood of busting 5th is quite high, then getting better than 4th place money is a good result.

I'm not sure what the rest of the question is, but yes, part of adjusting to ICM as a medium stack is adjusting for how soon the shorter stacks are likely to go out. You probably don't want to play overly tight as a 30BB stack to try to outlast a 20BB stack, but a 6-8BB stack, certainly.

3.
I mean, whether you want a deal depends less on your stack and more on your perceived edge and tolerance for variance, I think.

You're not wrong that a chip leader has more to lose, but by the same token, ICM factors that in, and an ICM chop may not give them the value they think they have in their stack, particularly if they think they play a big stack well. In a situation where you have a massive chip lead, you may be able to ask for more because you can leverage it by picking up pots and putting people all-in knowing that they have to call pretty tight and that you won't really be hurt even if you lose the hand. If you're good at that and comfortable with doing it, it may be worth asking for more, or just continuing to pressure people until you have enough chips to get the deal you're satisfied with.

Getting first-place money (or more) is rare but it can be done with a significant chip lead and skill edge, particularly the bigger the tournament is. If the other two are at the point of flipping for money that would be substantial to them, they may be willing to pay a small premium to secure more money. (I think it's in the Endgame Poker Strategy section on deals-- solid resource on the topic, BTW-- that mentions Samuel Vousden got more than first-place money in a 3-way Sunday Million deal in a situation like this.)

(Brag: I did this once in the olden days, in a Stars 22/180. I had a massive chip lead on the other two and they were getting short enough it would've just been flipping coins for the difference between second and third, so they agreed to a chop. I asked for $0.01 more than first, just so I could say I once made a deal where I got more than first-place money. And now I have.)

(Maybe they gave me $.02 more so it was $.01 from each of them. It was like 17 years ago, I don't remember the details.)

4.
I don't know which one would be better. Of the sites I play on, only ACR allows deals, and they show which players are willing to discuss a deal. I'm not sure how much info can accurately be gleaned from that, though. I've seen some good players show interest in deals. And if someone wants to talk deal because they're afraid to gamble at these stakes and are going to play weak-tight, that'll show up in their play soon enough.

5.
When a deal is reached in a PKO, I believe you just win your own bounty as part of the deal. (This, I think, disincentivizes deals, since the bounty won't have much correlation to the current chip stack-- especially heads up since first and second are so similar and the bounty difference is what you're playing for, which isn't part of the dealmaking at least on ACR.) I'd guess for more than two people the regular prize pool would be handed out by ICM, yeah.

I've never seen a deal in a Mystery Bounty, so I don't know what happens. If there's a price for each player ITM (or wherever the bounties start), then I would guess each remaining player gets one extra draw at a bounty (or gets their own bounty, if the site assigns the bounties randomly to each player at the start of the bounty period instead of awarding them as players bust). If there's one bounty fewer (because the winner will not bust), then I have no idea. I don't think I've seen any site in a long time that continues play after a deal has been reached, though, unless it leaves something to play for. (Stars used to let you customize deals, leave money to play for, and play it out, at least. ACR only allows straight ICM deals, no adjustments, and when a deal is reached the tournament ends.)

As far as my own experience...
I'm generally willing to make deals in bigger field tournaments, where the prizes tend to be large relative to the buyin, but again, online it depends on whether I find the table or situation favorable. If I'm in an awkward spot in terms of stacks or position I'm more willing to deal. (Since online I'm talking about ACR, there's no option to customize a deal, so to take exactly ICM I have to feel like I don't have a significant edge and/or the risk or variance isn't worth securing what I can.)

Live... since I started playing again I've made three final tables up here. One I managed to bust out on the first hand so the opportunity never came up.

The second, deal talk also never came up, but people didn't really seem to value their tournament life. (There was a spot where one really short stacked player accidentally exposed her cards and got a one-round penalty, and even though they could have waited because the blinds passing would have been a substantial hit to her stack, two people busted out before she got back to the table.) It wasn't a particularly big tournament, so it didn't come up even three-handed, which did last a while-- but then I got two big hands and coolered the chip leader twice in a row to bust him, and then I had a 10:1 chip lead to start heads-up and I have a lot of heads-up experience, so I just played it out.

The third, I was the chip leader for a while but then lost a decent pot and another guy got on a hot run. I was second in chips three-handed and the chip leader offered an even chop. We were deep enough I would've been happy to play it out, but at the same time an even chop still gave me more value than my stack was worth by ICM, so I took it.

Lol let’s look at this. Let’s say 3 left and 33.3% of chips to each player. Say each player has 100k and 300k total in play and payout is $1k, 2k, 3k. We would chop 2k at icm based on chip counts. Why would I chop and think it’s a good deal if I think I win 40% of the time because I’m better than the other 2 players? I have more experience short handed, I’ve played numerous online tournaments, etc.

Finishing 3rd isn’t going to kill me- I get 1k instead of 2k- who cares- I will have more deep runs and this money most likely isn’t changing my life unless I somehow fired an insane $5k tourny when my ABi is say $500-600 and I ran godly following poor bankroll management. Most people aren’t going to be like ah it’s ok you are better than both of us- we will give you 2.4k and we will both take 1.6k bc you think you are better than both of us. Sure you can ask but from what I’ve seen in live game- most folks wouldn’t take that deal.

Btw anyone here get heads-up live? I have a few times and I love talking trash and celebrating when I win a big hand- I feel bad for anyone that plays me heads up bc I’m going to be annoying. I think talking **** is fun heads-up but will suck if I ever lose heads-up. Earlier in the year, I won a wsop circuit event and played an older mawg. He wanted to chop, I’m like sure we can do icm and I get ring bc I have more chips. He declined and said he wanted chips. I honestly told him/ dude I think you declining that is really bad for you and a really bad decision- I’ve played a of live and online tournies so it’s a good deal. He ended up getting chips to 50-50 and I started to get a tad nervous. He takes a lead. I end up getting stacks in like A6 to Kq and hold. Next hand ai like similar and hold for the win. I tried to help the guy- I told him me offering icm based on chips was fair for him and a good deal but he says no lol I want the ring. It’s ok brother I got the ring and prolly an extra 7-8k so all good with me!

Lol, you still didn't answer the question and my icm calculator has no inputs for skill advantage. It just does math

Everyone knows you believe in this mythical skill advantage but take your 300k hypothetical but give everyone 10 bbs and let's see you produce a 40% win rate.

I am glad you were able to use your non answer as a springboard for another retelling of your ring event win where you acted like an immature ahole when heads-up. We all wanted to hear the latest embellishments of this conquest where you nearly made a deal but used your skill advantage instead.

Haha I’m not saying at 10bb though, I do agree at 10bb- no real edge honestly. Most tournaments that have solid structures though are around 25-50 bb late. Even some meh structures get fairly deep with 2-3 left because somebody has majority of chips and people will get knocked out quickly at a certain stage when many shorties exist. I’m purely speaking of 30-40 bb poker. And icm chop doesn’t take into account skill advantage which I would assume most people posting strat here have over random mtt live players.

Basically chopping is for wimps. I would feel like a pussy chopping 3-5 ways. What is point of tournament if you don’t play down to a winner. End game is the best stage of a tourny. Why would you want to chop at the most important stage of the tournament that is extremely exciting. Oh a bad beat might happen or cooler- you are playing too high if the money is that important. I’m not going to cry if I have a 20k score and not a 30-40k score lol. Just using random figs.

Btw 2 rings brother! 2 circuit rings!

Honey, you are a regular nuclear meltdown!

I was in an interesting make a deal spot this past week. 4 Left from a 350 runner tournament. The stack sizes were about to be:

43BB
43BB
22BB
2BB

I was going to be the BB the next hand. This seems like a very good spot for me to make a deal, as my hands are tied until the 2BB stack goes out. It gets even worse if he finds a double. He was a very tight player, who would nurse a short stack and really hamper me.

However, if he had somehow busted the last hand before the break (when we agreed to look at numbers), it seems like this would be an excellent spot for me to play on. If the new totals were 43,43,24 they'd both have to be careful against each other, where I'd have the least ICM pressure, yet a very playable stack.

Does this all make sense?

I think the pays and distribution are important to know but I would tend to not talk chop with someone w only 2bbs.

I think you have it a little backwards though. As the short stack, your chips would have the most icm value.

Haha I’m goofing. I guess when do you think stacks are too shallow and a Chop is good? I say like 20bb or less average stack. Like if it’s 3 folks left and stacks are 20bb and chips are say 10/15/25 I’m fine with a chop. If I’m leader with say 28-32, no chop unless the first price is huge for what my level is. If 1st is 70k+ I might consider a chop.

I feel I’ve seen even tournies with meh structure can still have heaps left when down to 3. Wsop circuit- I’ve seen many bbs as a tourny late has went from say 6 down to 3 which makes me say I want to play it out.

Btw random note- I haven’t been down to a deal making scenario often (say 5 or less in a tourny) bc I play mostly big field smaller stuff (Abi tends to be $400 in past) even though it has went up recently. I feel most folks aren’t down to give one player more than the icm amount normally. Some folks are just happy to be deep though (super casual recs) and will not argue too much for a deal below icm I feel. Not very common though.

I’ve never played for life changing money really though. Feel free to lol at me but I did chop heads up once when it was 69k- 33k was the spread. I played poker from 11am - 3 am though and heads up was most likely going to be a long slog as average stack was 40bb. I decided to chop as I had to work next day and was exhausted as I didn’t go to bed early night before. Heads-up, was an OWG I thought I would clearly beat most of the time. Had a 52-48% chip advantage and thought I could win say 55-60% of the time but didn’t want to wear the variance honestly.

Deal making is most important stage of a tourny! I wish it happened more often for me lol (duh) but difficult when I play mainly big field mtts (400+ players normally).

Yes, the 3AM element is meaningful. My chop from above was at 3:30, and that was 4 ways...And plenty of chips left, too.

Do you realize what a disaster it is for me (the 20 BB stack) to have the 2BB stack around?

Say the first hand after the break, the Button jams, and the shorty folds. If the button is jamming ATC, what is our calling range? Answer in spoiler

If you are the big stack, and have position on the other big stack, you can really build your stack in this spot. For me, the 3d place stack, I am basically forced to play super tight until that shorty goes away. Sure, he only has 4 more hands, and I'd be in a good spot, but if he gets lucky and double, I can be stuck for another orbit or 2, bleeding 10% of my stack until he is gone.

What were the payouts on the tournament where you were held hostage by the 2bb stack.

First was $15K. Fourth was $4700. Not sure what the other 2 were. I estimated something between them when I ran the calculations. Unless it was super top heavy, I’m always going to be in ICM hell as long as he is there.

His two chips are worth 5.7k while yours are worth 8.8 assuming 9k for second and 7.0k for third. Once he is knocked out, you chips have icm of 2k less than the chipleaders.