Beyond GTO book - ISN'T THIS FOLD EQUITY CALCULATION COMPLETELY WRONG?
Hi
I have been stuck on this page of the book for 2 days.
It is a chapter called "fold equity".
I will make their example as simple as possible:
Pot is 64,1bb.
They Fold 85% when we shove 68.7bb.
So we win 53,5bbs on average.
15% of the time we lose our shove, making it minus 10,3bb.
53,5bb-10,3= 43,19BBs.
They call the last number the "EV of bluffing". Now this is where it gets messed up:
They say: If we shove for more than 43.19BBs, it is an unprofitable bluff.
They say: If your shove is for less than 43,19BBs, it is profitable
If this calculation is somehow right, everything I or anybody knew about poker is wrong.
We should be printing even if they called 47%.
And how did they pull up a profitable size to bluff from our shoving size?
It does not make any sense.
Could somebody please try to figure out what they were trying to say.
I guess they might be right and it is just that I need to reorganize everything I have ever thought about the world.
That it truly is better to save the chips, than get the _85% x pot_ Folds by bluffing.
Please discuss. Thank you.
1 Reply
I think that you assumed that the fold equity of 85% does not change with a smaller size shove. If that is the case, then yes, the book conclusion is clearly wrong. But, fold equity typically is a function of the bet size. It turns out that if hero bets 43.19 a fold equity of about 50% is breakeven for hero.
So, I would check to see if the author states somewhere how fold equity is related to bet size.
Incidentally, for the stated inputs, hero’s win with a fold equity of 85% is 54.5 compared to your 53.5, not that significant.
