AQo 40bb deep
What would you do in this scenario?
It's a 50€ multiple day mtt. The competition is really weak. Every pot has 3-4 limpers, even with shallow stacks. 90% of the field will call decent bets with top pair and any kicker. Some even with second pair.
I have 79k stack on 1000/2000 level.
On my left is an actual decent player who I've seen 3 bet a couple times (only player that I've seen 3 betting in 5 hours of play) he has 3bet us before with T9s and showed. We have a tight image at the table only tabling premium but we are also one of only 2 players at the table that will fold to a 3bet.
I raise to 5K with AQo from MP, decent player 3bets to 12k, SB calls. Both players have us covered but with a similar stack (roughly 40 to 50 BBs)
I call thinking I am probably destroying SB's range as he is a player that loves to see flops with anything and does not care what he has to pay for it and because I have a good hand against the 3bettors range, removal for AA and QQ, crushed by KK and a flip or ahead of the rest.
Should I fold or 3b here or is a call correct? I didn't think raising was an option in this situation with anything less then AK or KK+
Flop comes AsKs6c.
I check, decent player c-bets to 15K, SB calls.
I think the decent player's range is polarised here, he either has me completely crushed with AA or KK, but AA is unlikely as there's only one combo left. I have his pocket pairs and suited connectors beat. I don't think he will ever have 66 here.
SB's range is really wide and will pay me off with every Ax and flush draw. He has ATo+ and A2s in his range. KTo+, Every pocket pair and 78s+
Should I jam here?
Is my thinking correct?
9 Replies
What’s the reason for only having a 4b jam range of AK+? Sounds exploitable unless your bubble factor is large. Without knowing the ICM implications, I think I’m 4b jamming pre flop for the following reasons:
- 1. There’s ~16.5bbs of dead money in the pot after SB cold calls
- 2. We’re up against a wide 3B range
- 3. AQo doesn’t have great EQR when multi way, out of position, and with a small SPR
- 4. We block the top of the 3 betters range
I’m going to push my fold equity and 4b jam. We’re also certainly ahead of SB range, and we can get them to fold a lot of pairs they’re set mining with and we’re flipping against.
As played I’m check jamming flop. We block combos that dominate us and could get called be a weaker ace or spades. Do you hold the Qs?
The only real reason for not jamming preflop is the slow structure of the tournament and that I believe my edge on this field to be too big ro risk a 40 bb stack pre. Like I said, they don't like folding before seeing a Flop so there is less fold equity than normal.
I did not have a spade
Curious what others think but I feel we’re being too passive here. I’m honestly okay with flipping in this spot, which I think is an unlikely scenario. If both fold then we increase our stack by ~30%, which is also massive. Sticky players might also call it off and be dominated. Best case you double up and are setup to pressure what sounds like a passive table. There’s a lot of EV to capture from being a big stack at a passive table.
What’s your plan if you don’t hit the flop?
Given we are OOP and the guy to our left 3-bets a lot and showed you T9s (which basically makes him a GTO/Solver) I 4-bet jam preflop. We can be knocked out by AK/KK which happens sometimes but Villain's 3-betting range is wide so we will get a lot of folds. On the bright side we won't be playing a huge pot OOP post flop. SB could call the jam with hands like 66-JJ and so be it.
In Prague I was in a similar situation where a GTO/Solver was the opening raiser to 2500 call call and I was in the BB with AQo and I jammed my 30,000 rather than call OOP or raise to a pot committing level and be OOP in a huge pot. It was folded to the last caller who knew me well and called with 55.
I jam here pre-flop mostly because I want to have a large stack moving forward and not waste my time ultimately just trying to cash.
As played I c/r jam the flop. You called the flop so that you could fold if you missed. Well you didn't miss. And yes it is possible Villain has AK or KK. So be it.
Thank you all for the replies. Looking back maybe a jam is idd better preflop. Passive playing a 35 bb stack and giving up when there is a risk won't get me wins.
Good to know that my Flop decision and most of my reasoning whas decent though
Think this is a 4-bet/fold mix spot, zero flats here simply because the SPR is already pretty low and we're OOP vs 3- bettor. We benefit from seeing five versus a lot of his flips anyway. Probably in a low-buy in tournament would lean fold unless we think villain is good, although if SB flat is as wide as you say it is I can see jam being good for that reason alone because the SB is almost always dead money.
Other people have answered, but just to emphasize:
What would you do in this scenario?
It's a 50€ multiple day mtt. The competition is really weak. Every pot has 3-4 limpers, even with shallow stacks. 90% of the field will call decent bets with top pair and any kicker. Some even with second pair.
I have 79k stack on 1000/2000 level.
On my left is an actual decent player who I've seen 3 bet a couple times (only player that I've seen 3 betting in 5 hours of play) he has 3bet us before with T9s and showed. We have a tight image at the table only tabli
Do you see how the bolded contradicts the underlined?
"3-better has shown he 3-bets wide, cold caller is playing basically anything" is a reason you should 4-bet wider, not tighter.
"3-better has shown he 3-bets wide, cold caller is playing basically anything" is a reason you should 4-bet wider, not tighter.
Yeah, thanks for emphasizing. It's my main take from this analysis (and not the one I thought I would make).
I put the ranges on my opponents pretty decent but I didn't use them in a right way. The removals I have call for a shove, not a passive "call and see if we hit" scenario
What jpgiro said.
