Range Construction Advice | Large Field MTTs
Hi there,
Hope y’all doing well. I’ve been firing in many of the 2024 WSOP online bracelet, circuit, and ring events. and while I’ve made a few deep runs, I feel like I’m leaking massive EV by bluff catching turn and river bets against much of the field.
The site is untracked, and with the recent merger, the vast majority of the field is currently unknown to me. Many times I find myself calling down 2-3x barrels with bluff catchers, and they just always have it. I know this is anecdotal and a small sample size, but does anyone have advice for how to approach these post flop play scenarios against unknown opponents in large field online MTTs?
Is it just safe to assume they have it and not bluff catch at all? To me, it feels like much of the pool are only playing linear ranges. I do spend a lot of time with MTT solvers, and they love to bluff their face off. But my experience so far, even with the showdowns in hands I’m not part of, is the field is largely value heavy. However, I’m concerned if I just fold out my bluff catches than I’ll lower my ROI in these fields.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated, thanks!
3 Replies
Even a lot of good players don't bluff as often as the solver suggests. Lower-stakes players probably even less so, although you'll see some exceptions and some wild players here and there. But with those they're often easy to sniff out because their bluff lines don't really make sense.
Your ROI definitely won't go down folding bluff-catchers if people are underbluffing. Try to figure out what bluffs they could have that make sense and if there are enough of them to justify calling. Or if opponent seems to over-bluff. Be observant and don't default to theoretically optimal frequencies against players who aren't playing optimally.
What Nath just said is really crucial.
Imagine for a second that you always called bluffs. Then imagine that you never called any bluffs. The irony is that if your opponents are balanced it makes no difference on average overall.
Bluff catching stands out in tournaments for one reason. It allows you to massively increase your stack in this one spot. And if you guess wrong it can cripple you (or cut your stack down big time).
So there are two things to consider. The first as Nath points out is does the player you are playing against in this hand overbluff? GTO/Solver guys don't overbluff. They just balance. So against them it doesn't matter what you do except that it affects this tournament in this moment. But if you are playing against players that overbluff then calling is a must.
If they underbluff then a fold is mandatory.
However, the one thing that could change this is the potential range of hands they have and what that means given the board. Also just watch how frequently pre-flop raisers cbet. Some cbet 100% of the time. Others pick and choose based on flop range and number of opponents. Others pick and choose based on position.
Finally I would say this (and I don't play online so this could mean nothing to you): If you are in a situation where the bluff is more than one street then the balanced bluffing thing goes out the window. Because if you are folding to the first bluff you lose just a little, if you fold to the 2nd bluff you lose a lot more, and if you don't fold at all you are risking a ton to double up but understand that you will likely lose significantly more than you will win because Villain may choose not to keep bluffing when not ahead. I will always make the decision to call down on the first potential bluff street (and mostly I will fold unless I have a big hand like 2 pair or better or unless I have a draw that makes implied odds sense).
In WSOP live tournaments people are significantly underbluffing. So I will just let it go early on. I can't tell you how many times I called down monsters in these spots. So now I wait and I bluff in a balanced (if not overbluff) way.
Thanks all, this does help a lot, especially the reminder about not projecting theory ranges onto villains. I seem to have a hard time remembering, that while I spend a good amount of time studying the game at equilibrium, it’s not something I should project onto the table. Instead, I’m studying to learn heuristics so I can apply exploits at the table. Since WSOP isn’t tracked, I’m choosing to cut down on multi tabling and only focus on these bracelet and circuit events during my sessions. Hopefully I can be more observant moving forward.
It’s tough to accurately count/assign combos when you have no information on players! I think I’m going to start by dialing back my bluff catching, especially in earlier stages when I have so much time to find better spots.
