AQ auto folds to a raise on a QJT rainbow flop?
I'm reading Harrington 3 where he breaks down the hand where Jennifer Harmon made a full house against the straight flush
He says that a hand like AQ would not call the flop raise
So if you raise AQ from EP and the flop is QJT rainbow, cbet and get raised 4x the C bet, that's a fold?
Because it looks like top pair top kicker with a draw to the nuts to me but maybe this is why I'm losing...
Also I'm not sure why AK for the flopped nuts is an automatic flop three bet with no flush draws present
6 Replies
It's tough to say, against certain players (one's who don't really bluff) it should probably be a fold since their x raise range is usually 2 pair+. But you could also argue that even against an opponent who is capable of bluffing it's an uncomfortable call down. Semi bluffs from an aggressive player will almost certainly look like pair + straight draw so your Ace is likely not a viable out against any of those hands. But say the Ace is live (versus their lesser 2 pair) you aren't likely to get paid off when the board has 4 to a straight. Similarly, if you hit your Q, there's a chance you just pay off a boat like QJ QT, and then if the villain had bottom 2 pair their hand is counterfeited and they won't pay you off anyways.
It's tough to make broad proclamations like this when every situation is player (and range) dependent. When you say out loud "I fold top pair top kicker to one x raise" it sounds really bad, for sure, however, when you actually range your opponent here, plus think of how it plays out when you hit one of your money cards on later streets (ambiguous as to whether we are ahead OR we are unsure we will get paid off when we hit), I think there's valid arguments for folding. This is also a live exploit situation versus an opponent unlikely to x/raise bluff, online would be different where you could be exploited for your tight fold. Also worth noting, it's kind of rare the preflop aggressor is getting x raised on this particular board texture where they have such a range advantage.
Lastly, you mention we have "a draw to the nuts". I think our gutshot Broadway draw is fairly irrelevant, even if you hit the King, there's nothing he's going to pay you off with on a KQJT board (maybe he calls one bet with 2 pair or a set but unlikely to pay us off turn + river)
So a very similar situation happened to me in recent a $400 live two-day event on day 1 -- and it was a crucial hand for me making day 2. I think we were playing around 50 bbs eff (I covered V, but not by a lot). I raised 2x (maybe a little more) EP with AQs and V (youngish white male, who had not been too active) popped it to about 6-7x from the SB. I call and we see a flop heads up.
Flop comes TJ (low card) rainbow, with me having a backdoor. V leads about 1/3 pot and I call. Turn Q. V checks, I bet a little more than 1/2 pot and V tank jams. I go into the tank and say, well you must have AK and fold. V turns over one K.
Next break I talk to V, and he says he has KK. I believe him and that hand makes sense. Had I called with top pair/top kicker and gut shot to nuts -- most likely would have been severely crippled (with likely two outs). My thinking was given the action, AQ could not be good their against this V. If I had pegged V as a GTO or tricky player, I might have thought KQ was a possibility -- but still would have likely mucked since I block KQ (also block AK, but not KK).
How deep were the stacks on the hand in the book?
Also worth noting that the book is 18 years old by now so it may not be the most up-to-date in terms of optimal strategies.
Broadway boards like this usually play pretty straightforward with the general public - usually if you have a piece of this you're not going to turn it into a bluff and there's also a good chance your opponent has a strong hand betting a board like this. I'd agree with Harrington this is a fold in the majority of games most are playing in.
A lot of factors to consider, but the thing about QJT in, say an EP vs. BTN situation is that while we get to range bet that board, the BTN in theory should have zero raises because of how bad that board is for their overall range. So when they're betting, they're very likely to be imbalanced because it's unlikely a lot of their hands with a pair plus draw (like KT or KJ or T9) are going to be all that interested in raising. And they're not likely going to have a lot of natural bluffs that don't connect with the board in some fashion.
So when they raise, it's very likely going to be with hands that feel strong at the moment, but feel vulnerable like two pair or sets, along with maybe a smattering of draws. Against that range AQ is very likely to still be a call, but it's not like it's printing.
Well I wouldn’t say it’s an auto fold. The book was written in 2009 after all…
That said, you’re certainly not trying to play for a big pot with any 1-pair hand on a 3-BW board. Even half the two pairs are fool’s gold.
As for AK, I have no idea what the scenario is, but it’s a nice spot when the nuts essentially completely unblock all other stackoff hands (except maybe 3 combos of K9s). There’s very little chance you’ll lose the hand by letting them see a turn, but any card higher than a 7 can chill your action.
Again, no idea the scenario and certainly hard to imagine one where 3bing AK is mandatory, but there’s some thoughts on fastplaying AK on QJTr.