WSOP Senior Day 1B AA spot
I have ~50,000 chips (we started with 20,000). Levels are 60 minutes. I was down to 5,100 at one point after 3 straight bad beats and somehow won two big pots (also all of my jams were folded to). One was a flip and the other was a shove for 4,500 by UTG at 300/600 I called in SB with 88, BB shoved for 17,000 and I insta called (he had 77). UTG had K9o and 8 on the flop and river so I basically almost doubled up and knocked out 2 players.
On to the hand. UTG who has about 60,000+ chips raises to 2,000 with blinds at 400/800 early in the level. Call and I raise in MP with AA to 8,000, folds to UTG who calls other guy folds.
Flop is 973 two hearts. UTG checks I bet 4,000 (which is basically a mis-click I usually bet about 6,000 here but maybe its the shape of the flop which favors UTG range). UTG c/r to 12,000. Now normally I call and will jam the turn (whether UTG bets or not) unless a heart comes at which point UTG will check like 80% of the time or bet 8,000 and i will check back or call. And then the river will be a pot sized bet by UTG and I will often call.
But here I decide to jam. I don't have A hearts so I am not blocking flush draws and my thinking is that UTG would possibly fold with a flush draw especially if it is not A high. But even with an A high flush draw he might fold with a lowish kicker.
Thoughts?
12 Replies
From a GTO perspective, this spot is pretty weird because in theory UTG - shockingly - should be donk betting range. This is because so much of his range is either a set or an overpair, which means that he can basically range bet this flop.
But in practice, let's assume villain never leads here because most villains won't. In that case, our optimal bet size is roughly 3e, which would be like 7K. Betting small here is fine, probably not much difference between bet and check and it's somewhat suit dependent (i.e., you either want to unblock all the draws or have the most backdoor equity possible to bet, so AcAd or AhAs want to bet the most).
Facing the check raise, jamming without the Ah is probably better than jamming with the Ah, as we do unblock the nut flush draws. But again, call is also perfectly reasonable as we can call off pretty much any turn card because worse overpairs almost always jam in theory.
If this is a GTO type table then the previous poster's advice is probably better than mine will be.
If not, this is a spot where I like to trap. It is definitely better to do so with the Ah, but I would still often smooth call the check raise. We're not scared of much besides a heart (straight draws are quite unlikely) and if he has 2 pair plus we're going broke anyway. Why not call, and see if he keeps bluffing?
If stacks were smaller then it's a very easy 3 bet jam I think
Lol, obviously not a GTO table in a senior event.
I would shove. If he had a set or 97s, what can you do?
I think you played it well. You're small bet size might have induced a raise. I don't see a scenario where you are going to be folding this.
I think the only question you should be asking yourself is if you should be calling the flop and let the player shove/barrel the turn.
The only GTO they know is in their garage.
With 38K in the pot I jam now.
I appreciate the feedback.
Villain insta-called with A♥T♥ which makes sense. If I have JJ-KK he is getting close to 48% and if I have AA (which he blocks) he is getting about 38% which is still +EV to call.
Q♥ on the turn and it is a sad day for me...
Not sure what would have happened if I had just called. If Villain bets like 8,000 on the turn I likely call. If he checks I check back. The river might get interesting. If he bets like 15,000 I likely call. I don't know if I would call a jam on the river (which was not a heart) but I might fold.
You got the money in good. It was obvious you were probably ahead on the flop. Why are you posting bad beats?
You got the money in good. It was obvious you were probably ahead on the flop. Why are you posting bad beats?
I wanted to hear from you guys as to whether it is better to wait until the turn in position to jam. I didn't think it through in the moment and thought I had some fold equity but I don't really think I did. I know I got it in good, but it is a flip basically if he has A♥X♥.
Not sure I would be able to fold once the Q♥ hits and he bets small. Or checks and jams the river (because it is polarizing). But in a Senior WSOP event maybe I can fold to a river jam because if he doesn't have a flush he really isn't bluffing much. He likely would have a set.
Your equity is 63%. You chop sometimes when there is a straight on the board. You can't play everything passively because you might bust getting it in ahead.
So it's been established that jamming is +EV. But if we take the passive line the opponent will be pot committed on a dry turn (~45k pot ~30k back), so I don't think there's anything terrible about calling either. Can go either way depending on reads. If we believe he's going to continue betting any turn card it's fine I think
