Wynn $3.5K 3 bet pot TPTK in 2nd level
We arrived a few minutes late. We are playing 7 handed
Villain is late early 30s with an accent and olive coloured skin. He looks either Spanish, Israeli or maybe Greek. We heard a slight accent. He is bald with a light groomed beard and a gold chain on his neck. This guy looks like he gets bottle service at clubs.
Hero 38K (40K starting)
Villain 50K
Blinds 100/200/200 ante
Preflop: Hero has A♥ Q♣ in UTG1
1 folds, Hero raises to 700, folds to villain sb who makes it 2.6K, BB folds, hero calls
Flop: Q♦ 7♥ 4♦
SB leads for 3K, Hero calls
Turn: 8♣
SB bets 10K, hero?
I think all 3 options have some merit (calling, folding, and maybe even shoving). What are we doing here?
I really don't like the idea of calling the 10K and folding to a river shove.
Results to follow
4 Replies
Yeh I think our decision is made here - his turn sizing would probably eliminate lower equity/non natural bluffs. One question would be what his 3b range looks like especially this early on in the tournament - can he have stuff like 56s/T9s/etc. I think I'm folding the turn - I think his 10k turn bet eliminates some weaker diamond draws as he's basically committing to this hand.
This is literally what happened to me a few days ago at the Wynn $2200 early on. Villain though was overweight southern white guy (so I thought at the time less chance of a bluff - but in the end he was wily and bluffing so it could have been AK). I called the flop bet and folded to the turn bet when there was no way of knowing if this could be a bluff or KK+ or a hand that got there. Or another AQ. In my case though there was a J on the flop so JJ got there...
My fear is that it likely will go all in on the river. It could be JJ/TT (I think much fewer than AA/KK). It could also be a flush draw, especially AXs. It could be AK. So in theory we could be ahead.
I prefer not shoving here because if we are set to call the river all in, our shoving on the turn will eliminate any bluffs that would triple barrel. It could be good though against a flush draw that gives up when it misses because its clear you are not folding and it blocks other flush draws itself. I just don't think there are many flush draws that would be here vs the 10 hand combos we are trailing.
As for the potential read I think this guy could be power bluffing if he is super rich and doesn't mind buying in again. This is how hyper aggro bullies operate.
I think I fold here but I don't mind a call with the intention of calling the river jam.
If he’s Spanish I’m folding if he’s from Israel I’m flatting turn to trap.
Not kidding.
So in game I was so on the fence. I kept thinking how he could bet so large on the turn. I just decided he probably had to have KK+.
After I folded, he asked if I want to see one, I said sure and he showed me a Q and said he had kicker problems. He said he had QT. He ran his stack up to 100K (From 40K starting) in 4 levels and then busted by the end of level 5. If I saw him play a little more I probably would have called.
