$1650 MTT Tournament - Hand analysis

Hello,

Hand 1 is played fine if you were deeper then it's harder to fold but given stack sizes and he called from MP indicates strength and most likely a pair higher to the board. If there were any reads on him being loose then I might be hard pressed to fold this, but I think it's an okay fold.

Hand 2 is played a bit too weak, the donk bet is definitely weird, but is it better to raise or call? Given stack sizes again, I think I'm raising on this board, it's so wet there is so many draws and combos that he could be donk betting with a huge range, turn you should be betting anyway, river I guess now you have to fold?

Hand 1: GTO-wise I believe 87s is in fact at least close to a fold pre with your stack depth. Or did you have a bigger stack but got called by smaller? I think the value of small SC:s also decreases when there are a couple of stacks at the table with 20-30 bb, because there will be squeezes or even 3-bets allin that you of course always have to fold to. Plus we lack the implied odds that SC:s benefits from when it hits a big hand against hands like top pair or overpairs.

As played I agree that river is probably a fold OTR. It also illustrates the problems that so easy can occur with SC:s when we're getting shorter. If our stack was 100 bb we can easily call his flop raise and evaluate turn, because we only have to invest 4% more of our stack and might have great implied odds. But if our stack is just 28bb the call costs us more than 15% instead and also diminshes our fold equity on coming hands. This is an adjustment I have done to my own play, earlier I both raised and called more with'em even with shorter stacks.

Hand 2: I mostly agree with UntimelyBluff. As played I can find arguments for calling river, because your hand strength isn't that well defined at all. A tricky player in BB might use the fact this board hits his range much better, making a stab with hands like QT. Especially since he has you well covered. But of course there will be no surprise if it's a hand that has AA beaten.

Hand 1, fold preflop.

Hand 2, played OK on this board, except call the river.

Hand 1: What do you mean by effective stack 28bb? Are you or the Villain the effective stack?

If you are the effective stack, fold pre. If you are 40bb+, the open is fine as long as you don't open this UTG 100% of the time and/or consider table dynamics before opening.

On the flop, I would reraise to 18bb/get it in. Why are you so convinced that MP has an overpair? This is not a great flop for your perceived UTG open range and MP could just be trying to take it away. Then, once he gets called in 2 places, he checks behind the turn, but after seeing Diamonds miss and no further interest in the pot from you and BB, he gives it one last shot on the river. Therefore, call river especially so given that you are closing the action.

Even if the villain does have a pocket pair, it is higher weighted to 77/88/99 types of hands and I think a reraise on the flop might get the villain off 88 or 99. If he shows up with 33, 55 or 77 exactly, this just sucks for us, but we do still have some outs...

More generally speaking, if you open suited connectors UTG, you should know that it is going to lead to some high variance situations. You need to either embrace that variance or tighten up your UTG open raise.

Thank you so much guys! It gives me lots to consider, especially my OR ranges when being short stacked.

Hand 1 im probably calling river, not sure 99-JJ take this line which is what everyone seems afraid of.

Hand 2 I like the flop flat, but I’m blasting turn once he checks. As played I can find folds vs his river lead.