Trying not to punt in the NFL Kickoff: Final Two Tables w A9s
Deep in the Iggy #38 "NFL Kickoff" $9.90 $2999GTD
367 Entries - about 88 re-enters
$539 up top - we're at the 31 pay level.
2nd hand of the Final Two ... I had been taking notes but no specific reads on this villian.
I felt kind of lost in this hand all the way through. Please feel free to roast. Thank you.
Ignition - 75000/150000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 2.46 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
SB: 30.76 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 11.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 36)
BB: 27.06 BB (VPIP: 30.43, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 24)
Hero (UTG): 13.47 BB
UTG+1: 16.27 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
MP: 11.76 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+1: 25.01 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: 21.12 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
8 players post ante of 0.2 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 3.1 BB) Hero has A 9
Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB
Flop: (9.6 BB, 4 players) 5 K A
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2.2 BB, MP+1 calls 2.2 BB, fold, fold
Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP+1 checks
River: (14 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero
You also have a stack size that is better for a reshove than an open raise or open shove. It is fine for an open shove from late position with some hands, including this one, IMO fold > minraise > jam preflop. No need to play this hand with bad position and tricky stack size.
Ya honestly this may be the way (and I originally advocated for the r/f). I think one of my bigger leaks (and one I see with a lot of my students) is when we are in a softer environment thinking we must impose ourselves upon the table and play too many spots (i.e the OP) mistakenly thinking that's where our edge lies when in actuality sometimes our edge is found in avoiding these marginal spots which we don't need to take against the softer fields and instead waiting for them to make mistakes or
See this is the point of the thread. Instead of arguing "edge taking and giving" we... in 2024... are faced with situations where the solvers say do this and do that but my question to you all ... and it's really the theme in all my threads now ... is HOW do we draw the LINE between going with solver technology and incorpating the human element into making a situation "correct"?
ICM and GTO says play the hand here, and to open it, not shove. I never ever minnied under 15 beebs back in the day so studying these spots has been a real eye opener for me since recently returning to MTTs. So I am really on a quest to know WHY.
GTO gives you the foundation of your play and then you adjust it for your situation and opponents.
At this buyin and with the limited reads we have, I'm not expecting us to get 3-bet light here, so I'm comfortable with a standard open. Our hand is strong enough, we have one of the four aces with a pretty good kicker, we can confidently fold to a 3-bet without worrying we're getting bluffed, we can get it in with top pair or a flush draw on the flop. And with the size of the antes in this tournament, the pot is big enough to make it worth trying to steal.
We don't like shoving at this depth with this hand, at this stage of the tournament, because getting called is almost always a disaster for us. Would rather shove KQs because we have more equity against a calling range and we get more better hands to fold (there are a lot of Ax hands that can't call). Avoiding the downside of busting this late in the tournament is pretty important; that's where the ICM comes in.
That's the short version; I gotta go so I don't have time to expand on this further or double-check it-- I'll see later if I left something important out.
I feel there are better spots even if a program says this is r/f. You don't want to be playing postflop OOP against bigger stacks that can put pressure on you and this hand is not that playable postflop.
If the s/w says r/f, it may not consider postflop dynamics. Raising with this stack size into 4 bigger stacks UTG is a little dangerous. You don't want to have all big hands you are inducing with, but you should probably be weighted towards those. It is going to be difficult to play postflop, as it was here even though you hit.
I feel there are better spots even if a program says this is r/f. You don't want to be playing postflop OOP against bigger stacks that can put pressure on you and this hand is not that playable postflop.
I don't think either of those are real concerns here. With two tables left there just isn't going to be much flatting behind us. And we have pretty easy decisions - we fold if we're 3-bet, if we go to a flop and hit our hand we're going with it.
Again, the question of "better spot" does not answer the question of whether this spot is profitable.
(also I am not a computer)
