Folded to SB with K7o and 15xBB
I saw this in a final table video. BB ante. 8-handed. SB is in next to last place with 15xBB, shorter stack with 9xBB, all others have much more. Folded to SB with K7o. Is this a shove? Or would you raise or limp with what plan? SB did not play it as I would have.
4 Replies
Where is the shortest stack on the table?
How big is the BB's stack? (or everyone else's?)
Shortest stack was in CO. BB had about 40xBB. One player had 36xBB. Everyone else had between 40 and 60xBB, except for the chip leader with about 100xBB.
SB made is 2.6xBB / fold. I would have open shoved.
Shoving is for sure +cEV, but you're never happy when you're called (even a suited king or K9o+ gives you more equity and outs). With those stack distributions, a lot of your equity is in the shorter stack busting-- a double-up would put you back in contention, but you're not really looking to get it in like 30% when called.
BB probably has to worry about you raise/calling strong hands so I don't think they're gonna push you out with worse, generally.
Some spots where I might shove 15BB for cEV or even earlier stages when it's not pure cEV but not this ICM-heavy, I might not shove where I do poorly when I'm called. I dunno if I raise/fold this but with the K blocker it's not terrible, I don't think. I'm not sure what I'd do in the heat of the moment or what's optimal.
Worrying too much about outlasting the other short stack by folding is not a good idea. In fact, BB had AJo and K7o would have been 36% plus pot odds. You should be close to that against a calling range, not 30%. You are in a difficult spot if you get flat called preflop with this hand. You can r/f hands that don't have value as shoves. However, I would tend to complete or fold most hands I wouldn't shove with. Seems like difficult to see a flop OOP and outchipped if BB calls your raise with r/f or most r/gii hands.
