Close to the money in $11 GP bounty
I had a spot in an online tournament I didn't know how to play. I thought calling and folding were fairly close. OR is pretty loose and 3-bettor is probably average in an $11 tournament (i.e. not a lot of 3-betting except with premiums). My image is normal. I haven't been caught bluffing. I'm in the middle of the pack, 15 or so players until the money (which is 45 players), 220-ish entrants.
GP doesn't do hand histories, so:
Hero has 44k/32BBs (BB), Original raiser (CO) slightly covers, 3-bettor has 36k/25BBs (BU). Blinds 700/1400 w/140 ante.
CO min-raises to 2800.
BU 3-bets to 8400.
Hero in BB with AJhh.
How do we play this?
4 Replies
We fold and are pretty happy with it.
If you're confident button isn't 3-betting wide and never has bluffs, then folding is fine. I'm not sure I am that confident with the positions, but that's your read, so I'd just stick with it.
I believe most "average players" in $11 BI normally won't bet/fold a 25BB stack (though this may be a spot where it actually sometimes is the correct play), except for the rare case one of the blinds shove and OR calls. If you also take into account that even "loose" players actually has a good hand from time to time, you shouldn't count on a lot of FE in this spot. You will get called almost exclusively by hands that dominates you or some hands that you are a slight underdog against (like TT, against which you'll win less than 46% of the time).
I think folding is the right play. Maybe I'm too tight, but I would need a more solid read of button as a loose aggressive player who have 3-bet/fold-plays on the button in their toolbox against especially wide openers from HJ and CO. Even then I doubt it's more than a marginally +ev play at best.
Yeah, really easy fold. Not so much light 3-betting at these stakes and he is not likely putting in 23% of his stack and folding. AJs is not good versus his range.
