$1100 MST
Hero has a tight image (been card dead on both this bullet, and 1st), and 16.3BBs. Registration is still open, so far from the money.
UTG min raises, next 2 players call. No particular reads about UTG, other than running hot. The next 2 players have been see the flop kind of guys, not much 3 betting but lots of flatting.
Hero is next to act in hijack with JTs.
10 Replies
i wouldn't hate a flat, you got 14bb left and still have fold equity so it doesn't hurt your stack that much if btn/sb/bb 3b or something.
yeah, flat and proceed you have a hand that does great multiway.
I would call because UTG probably has a tightish range.
But I see why you might jam. Its a rebuy situation and since you haven't played a hand in a while it looks like you have TT+/AK if you jam. And JTs plays well against a lot of hands especially because AJ/AT/KJs will likely fold to the jam.
I guess you could jam if you want to gamble and rebuys are no object for you. Some of that depends on the other players' ranges for calling your jam, if say you get to the second caller and he shrugs and says "I'll gamble with you" and flicks it in with QJo. Jamming is definitely more viable when you don't think you'll be called by weaker Broadway hands that should probably fold but here end up dominating you.
But I think flatting and getting it in with top pair or any decent draw is probably the overall best move? Not totally sure, but it can't be that bad.
No reason to give up your positional advantage preflop with a jam given the action.
I think another reason jam is likely mistake is that OP stated this is still early in an $1100, which are generally pretty deep stacked and have longer levels. If this assumption is correct, A lot of Vs are very likely north of 60 or more BBs and even more apt to call off.
I think flatting this spot is kinda yucky bc you open up a sweet squeeze. I kinda like jam or fold but idk flatting is ok however you only go with it on the flip or fold. You don’t have chip stack to call a flop bet really and fold turn bc stack is so small.
I kinda hate flatting bc you open up the squeeze bc villains behind only
Have to worry about utg. I like jam if you think utg can be semi light and is aggro bc you get a ton of folds from behind flatters.
I think jamming and getting called by utg sucks but J-10ss is type of hand you want against a strong hand like AA or KK if called I guess. Idk feel at 16bb it’s jam or fold bc playing a pot against people that are prolly set mining is kinda meh. I think jamming is spewy but you can get some better utg hands to fold if you rip.
Honestly, I'm not even sure I mind a squeeze - if we get a light squeeze we might just still get it in with the overlay and hope for the best. The overlay is why I think shoving is OK too though-- even if one of the first players in calls you're still getting a 6.5BB overlay on a 16.3BB stack.
Come to think of it, I lean squeeze a little more because I think I misread the positions - last night I must have thought we were on the button. HJ is pretty different in that regard. I guess it depends on what you think of the players behind you and what they might do and with what ranges.
Flat camp
Another reason I like the flat is I would actually want the button or blinds to wake up with something and raise and then be able to rejam if the 3 bet gets a bunch of callers. I would gii preflop with 4-5 other players and go rebuy if I lose.
I am assuming 16bbs is pretty short if you are early in an 1100 buyin tournament.
As I suspected, there'd be votes for fold/flat/jam.
I considered all 3 in game.
I took flat off the table first. Suited connectors are good speculating hands, but the SPR for us is going to be less than 1 even if we are somehow the last person in the pot. Just not enough return for when we hit bingo. Sure, we can happily get it in on flops where we have 8/9 out draws, and have some positive EV. Part of the problem is that more of our EV comes from just making a pair (in a heads up pot) than most realize. When we are against AK/AQ etc, we get a lot of equity from one pair. How much equity do we get when we flop a pair 4/5 ways? Too often we will be dominated.
Fold is a possibility. We will still have those 16BBs to invest in other spots.
What about jam? Do we have any FE? I think the squeeze nature does put some pressure on UTG; we can certainly get him off some hands that dominate us, like AT/KJ. Obviously winning 10.5BBs, even some modest percent of the time is a big win.
How will we be doing when called? I didn't mention it, but the UTG has 50+BB, so he can isolate us with a jam against most of the other ranges. We will have a nice overlay of about 5.5BBs in that case, and will be quite happy when flipping, and in decent shape against undominating overcards, or the very lucky 88/99...
I chose jam. After that, all hell broke loose. The cutoff now jammed, followed by jams from UTG, and UTG1, and a tank fold from UTG2
I was against QQ (utg), AKs (utg1) and 99 (cutoff). UTG sigh folded TT. (Can't one of these people just squeeze, so I can muck pre?)
As you can see, my straight outs were severely compromised, as were my 2 pair outs as TT had been folded.
The 99 made my price not as bad as it would have been if it was just 3 ways to the flop, but, not surprisingly, I didn't get there (I did flop a Jack, on AJx, so I still had a little equity, but the board ran out blank and AK took down a ridiculous pot.