Mystery Bounty Calculation
How do you calculate this when considering to call an all in or not? There was an article that said something like you average the remaining bounties available. However, how do you even do that? Can't imagine you check the online tournament lobby and check because sites like 888 only shows the amount someone has collected so you don't know which or how many bounties they collected unless it is obvious like one of the amounts shown or a big one. You have to go through all the players to check if one of the bigger bounties were collected. Also I recall 888 does it where after a player busts, the mystery bounty is revealed to everyone at the table. On stars, it doesn't? What about gg?
On other sites, do they show how many bounties are remaining and how many are collected for each amount though? Do other players at the table know? I know stars does have some mystery bounty now and I believe gg has had for a while. I don't believe stars show how much a player gets for a mystery bounty even if you are at the table?
Does it make sense playing for mystery bounties as aggressive as possible especially if there are big bounties? Do you play it even more aggressive than progressive bounties? Well you obviously play the progressive bounties more aggressively if the amount shown on those are higher etc but what about the mystery bounty? It seems lot of people are not a fan of these?
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One thing I do, which is really just an intuitive approximation, is check to see how many giant bounties are left, and to see what percent of the total number of bounties those represent. By giant bounties, I mean bounties that represent a 3rd place finish or better in the tournament. When those bounties are out there, and especially if they represent more than 5% of the total bounties to be won -- I call VERY wide when I cover V and close the action (assuming it's a situation where I know I have some equity). I figure this crapshoot is prbably better odds than actually finishing 1-3.
Has it worked? No -- but I did get a $5k bounty in an event where the top bounties were over $50k. That $5k bounty was way more than my eventual cash.
So I guess I'm trying to say that in those mystery bounties with giant bounties there is a lotto element that can't be ignored if your goal is to make $.
Well what is the correct way to calculate it assuming you know how many bounties are left for each vs not knowing?
Seems like sites show the average mystery bounty amount now. However, how do you caculate this?
sum of remaining bounties divided by # of remaining players?
The calculation must factor in your stack size and your equity and the ICM. Let's say in a $100 buy-in Mystery Bounty event there is a $2500 bounty available and two $1250 and four $750 where first place money is ~$3000 and fifth place is $500, with a total prize pool of $12,000. The "big" bounties represent as much or more than finishing in the top 4 places.
With 80 players remaining at the very beginning of the bounty period, and 7 "big" bounties still available (about 9% of all bounties), the odds of drawing the big bounty are small but the reward is big. If you have a medium stack that you think you have a 25% chance of grinding out and getting into the top 5 money spots, and you're facing a spot where you have to risk 80% of your chips on a coin-flip spot (let's say calling a slightly shorter stack's all-in when you have 99), you have a 50% chance of nearly doubling your chips, which would give you a top-5 stack, which would significantly increase your chances of making the money via winning the tournament, plus you pick up the 9% chance of drawing a big bounty.
It would seem that you would add that 9% to your equity calculation and decide whether to call based on having 59% equity rather than 50% (so, maybe treat your 99 as if it were JJ). THat would make sense.
If you have a top-5 stack already, the upside of winning more chips is less significant and the downside of losing those chips (relative to winning the tournament) is greater, so you might be unwilling to call with 50% equity or even 59% and since there's a 90% chance that your bounty will not be a big one. You can factor that in much like you would in an ICM spot with 9 players left where the immediate pay jump may not be huge but the prospects for top-3 money may make you reluctant to call off on a coin-flip.
I have not seen the detailed math on all this, but my general approach is that if I'm 50 out of 80, I figure my chances of scoring the big bounty is greater than my chances of winning the tournament and I'm willing to take the risk, both b/c of the bounty prospect and b/c of the value of winning the chips in that spot.
THat's why Mystery Bounty events go so fast after the money bubble -- which is one of the great things about them -- they end early. 😀
For starters, I don't like Bounties in general, and Mystery Bounties doubly so.
There is a key element to all flavors of bounty tournaments. Future game. Being able to cover as many of the players at your current table is vital.
Take the following 2 examples:
Hero 45BB, in the BB. Villain 15BB in the SB. All other stacks 40 BB. Folds to SB who jams
Hero 65BB in the BB. Villain 15BB in the SB. All other stacks 40 BB. Folds to SB who jams.
In case one, we need to be very tight. If we call and win, that is great, we get a bounty and a big pot. But, if we call and lose we can now get ZERO bounties.
In case two, we need to be very loose. Calling will not jeopardize our status as table chip leader; we can still collect bounties from everyone at the table.
This is admittedly a contrived example, but it shows a bigger point about bounty tournaments. Maintaining a big enough stack to cover other players is vital. Gambling for a bounty when it won't cost us the table chip lead (or close to it, we can afford to drop to 2/3 without too much damage) is also vital.
