Maximum EV on the river
PokerStars - 40/80 Ante 10 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 77.89 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 35.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (UTG): 81 BB
UTG+1: 39.12 BB (VPIP: 34.62, PFR: 3.85, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 26)
MP: 89.65 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 13)
MP+1: 89.87 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
CO: 131.02 BB (VPIP: 44.90, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 50)
BTN: 63.97 BB (VPIP: 14.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
SB: 181.01 BB (VPIP: 34.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 3♣ 3♥
Hero raises to 2.2 BB, fold, MP calls 2.2 BB, MP+1 calls 2.2 BB, CO calls 2.2 BB, fold, SB calls 1.7 BB, BB calls 1.2 BB
Flop: (14.2 BB, 6 players) 3♠ 9♥ 2♣
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.69 BB, MP calls 4.69 BB, fold, CO calls 4.69 BB, fold, BB calls 4.69 BB
Turn: (32.95 BB, 4 players) A♦
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks
River: (32.95 BB, 4 players) 9♣
BB bets 16.15 BB, Hero raises to 73.99 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, BB calls 54.72 BB and is all-in
Hero shows 3♣ 3♥ (Full House, Threes full of Nines)
(Pre 50%, Flop 74%, Turn 23%)
BB shows 4♦ 5♦ (Straight, Five High)
(Pre 50%, Flop 26%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 174.7 BB
On the turn, I was scared of the straight (in hindsight, how smart was I, right?) and I didn't want to fold the 9xs. I saw more value in setting up a check call here. I made a spreadsheet comparing the raises, because obviously I have to raise a full house if there are a lot of triples and straights in the opponent's range.
Worse cards are K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,54s,K9o,Q9o,J9o,T9o,98o,54o,[30]98s-94s,97o-94o[/30] - 64 combinations
(But I have devalued the weaker 9s to 30%)
The better cards that beat me
A9 - 6 combinations
That if I raised back to 2500 all 9s would call.
But allin would be called by at least Q kicker 9s.
Worse cards:
K9s,Q9s,54s,K9o,Q9o,54o - 32 combinations
Better cards:
A9 - 6 combinations
It can be seen that, despite the reduced payout scale, allin is a better game.
