$400 Mystery Bounty Punt?
Playing the $400 $500k GTD Mystery Bounty 6-max WSOP gold bracelet event. Due to rebuys, the prize pool reached about $1 million. ITM started at 420th place, and the top mystery prize of $50k has already been pulled. However, the second largest prize containing 2x $20k still remained in the pool along with other higher bounties.
At this point in the tournament, i am around 56th out of 107 players. The ITM bubble bursted long ago. There is little to no significant pay jumps at this stage. If I waited for the next pay jump in the ladder I would get awarded an extra $70 bucks from $1130 to $1200.
I am dealt 88 on the BU with a stack of 42bb. Fold around to HJ who raises to 2bb. I flat. SB jams for 38bb. Fold around to Hero. I call. Is this a punt? The expected value of the bounty in terms of starting chips when added into the pot is at most ~2bb at most due to the blinds being so high.
I calculated I need around 44% equity to call. Assuming villain’s squeeze range contains AQ, AK, AJ, KQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, we are flipping against 64 combos and losing significantly against 36 combos.
(64% weight * 52% equity + 36% weight * 12% equity) = 37.6% equity against this jamming range.
If villain mixes in non all-in sizings with the top of their range AA, KK, QQ, our equity improves significantly and likely meets the minimum 44% equity to call.
4 Replies
If you aren’t dominating at least some of Villains range, these calls are always bad.
I doubt they ever have 77-, since those hands play fine as a call. They might have some AWs hands, but too many of those overpairs that crush us. The flips are all good, but remember there is some ICM here as well.
Correction: It was a CO RFI, not HJ RFI. And for further context, CO had 52 bb. It is also interesting to note that villain squeezed in a similar situation one time previously, though this is a terrible sample size to try to justify my call.
I agree it was a punt. I didn't take ICM into consideration. It is also likely a bad call because I can bounty hunt shorter stacks due to having a greater stack than ~50% of the field. Trying to bounty hunt in this hand would potentially leave me crippled compared to bounty hunting other players in the tournament.
Huge jam by SB. Standard raise size might be 8 to 10 bb's.
So SB doesn't want to play his hand OOP. Which looks like it could be AK/AQ. But it is very unlikely it's a pair < 88. I think the temptation is to call and win a bounty which is why SB is doing this. Probably has QQ+ maybe JJ.
Given the total sizing is roughly what you have I would fold.
3 bet pre. What’s you’re flatting range co vs button here?
