Close or spew?

It just seems like one of those spots where there's not much value, not many bluffs. If he has it it's exactly KJ or 33, with an outside chance of QT.

Having the Jd hurts here as you mentioned. I am guessing a solver would bluff some Qx but those hands are likely very underbluffed at these stakes. I don't see any likely non-diamond bluffs from him. I think exactly KT might play it like this to get you off Qx, but still more likely to just check the river and try to get to showdown. I am guessing his Qx and Ax will just block bet or check mostly. Some 1 pair Ax might even bet 1/2 pot here to get hero'd by your Qx. Suffice to say we are only bluff catching imo.

He can shove all of his 2 pairs (A3, A5, AT, AQ, QT) hoping to get called by AK/AJ and maybe some lighter Ax. He also has 33 and KJ.

One other note I would say is that the Qd not being on board means a fair amount of his flush draws are 2nd pair (KQdd Q9dd, Q8dd, Q7dd, Q6dd). So a bunch of the bluffs we want him to have are just medium strength hands that won't feel a need to bluff. Also possible that his diamond draws with Tx check the river as well (KTdd, T9dd, T8dd, T7dd), though I'm less sure about this.

Good point about the FDs with showdown, hadn't really considered that.

My thought process maybe wasn't the best and in hindsight I don't think it's a great call but I still reckon a lot of players in this tournament pool probably just regular betting two pair rather than overbet shoving for fear of getting jammed on by the nuts. It seems like the very few combos of heavily nutted hands or nothing to me.

The real question I have is how many players in pool are capable of bluffing off FDs or even random spazzy hands, I had seen a lot of funky stuff earlier in the tournament so that probably factored into my decision.

As I said I'm a tournament fish, if someone is shoving in this spot for almost 2x pot at 25NL you're snap folding, in this dynamic I'm grasping at straws a bit so I decided to try and err on the nittier side which I didn't do here. With what's probably a lot of money on the line for much of these players I think it's quite rarely a bluff.

But oh well, lesson learned.

I think that this is pretty heavily weighted towards value at these stakes and at this stage of the tournament

I also think that the non-all in bet putting you in is even more often a value bet

Yeah I think so unfortunately. I'd like to think villains are finding bluffs but in a micro millions tournament they're usually just going to play their nuts and fold everything else.

A little bit earlier someone called off a triple barrel with AK high on a flush completing board, no draws no blockers nothing, so I think I was still a bit tilted from that and wanting to see crazy plays most people don't actually make.

Well, fwiw after playing this stakes on PS for half a year (grinding on avg 20 MTT:s per week) I more than agree with your conclusions. Maybe I'm not much of a player, but a typical grind I would often fold 3-4 big river spots, before starting to think "They can't always have it" and make one or two crying calls. Just to find out that they indeed had it, though far from always with a hand I thought was likely.

A problem also is the big player pool in this tournaments makes it difficult to get solid reads on player that they are actually capable of making big river bluffs for all or most of their stacks at this stage and being able to use it in another spots later on.

Yep. I think in a vacuum it's better to play based on the norm. I.e river shoves are generally going to end up being nuts.

It was a bit of an annoying hand as I honestly didn't consider it for as long as I should have and it was starting to get into significant money territory. That being said I would have been left with 17BB and could have just as easily got dealt KK and ran into AA the next hand.

I'm considering transitioning into MTTs as cash is getting so tough these days especially on sites like Stars, the problem is limited time in the day and I find it boring and frustrating to sit down for 4/5 hours and end up min cashing. The pools are definitely softer, the game is easier to play and there's the potential of a significant profit if you can bink the right tourney though.

Any thoughts on this?

I think there is a time to bluff catch even in this type of event, but I usually need 1) prior tells that the player is weak aggro, 2) a weird spot where you have shown weakness. Here, it is straightforward to deduce that you probably have an ace, so it would take a real maniac to make this play as a bluff.

I have also found MTTs to be juicier than cash lately both online and live. FWIW I play on ACR in the US.

I think your analysis is really spot on here, agreed on all counts. Narrow fold but probably call if we didn't have the Jd. Also great point by tweedy on the Qd/showdown value combos point

Because of the preflop raise sizing I would bet 105,000 on the flop. I'm guessing because Villain has K♦ he calls anyway but the flop favors our range a lot.

By checking the turn we under rep our hand so I do think Villain will bluff the river more frequently but not with hands like Qx because that now looks like a winning showdown hand.

Ultimately even though Villain will bluff more, I just don't think Villain will bluff enough (close to 40%) for us to break even by calling.

Personally I would have bet the turn (like 33% pot) because the T improves our hand and if Villain is on a flush draw we win a little and avoid a bluff on the river and if Villain c/r we can fold. Also, villain may check the river and we can check also. Though Villain may jam the river anyway if they don't c/r.

It is a Cooler spot no matter how we play it. My inclination now is to fold to > pot river bets unless the player has been hyper aggro and/or done this before. Or as happened to me in a Venetian $1,600 Day 1 spot against a woman on a K9959 board when I had KTs and she had opened UTG+1 and we both checked the flop and I called her turn bet when a flush hit, I called a greater than pot bet on the river because I had a boat and would lose to only AA and 9x (which would be unusual for her to have).