Exploitative Fold $200 Daily?
I am dealt AhAd UTG7 in a daily $200 tourney. Effective stack size 21k. Blinds 300-600-600. I raise to 1400. SB calls, all others fold. Flop comes 567dds. He checks, I check to balance on a flop that favors OOP player’s range.
Turn Jh
He bets 1200, I raise to 3500 for value. He rips it.
Now, a live read. Villain is vision impaired and has been using a contraption to slide hole cards up onto and magnify so he can see. Several times, he has asked the dealer for help identifying the cards on the board. Right before he rips it, he takes his hole cards off the table and brings them all the way up to his eyeballs.
Hero?
8 Replies
Oh yeah, another hand of note with villain.
Previous blind level, CO opened, villain flatted on button, I 3b from BB with JJ.
Flop A93hhx.
I c bet, he calls. Turn 6o. Check/check
River A
I bet 1/4 pot for value thinking he had some 9x and pairs below JJ. Also expect to see an ace sometimes. He calls, I turn over JJ pretty confidently and he rolls over KK to scoop.
No significant ICM implications in either hand as we are very early in tourney.
If he's playing KK that way I'd definitely fold the turn here. I don't really like the raise though, you're just setting yourself up to get jammed on like this when you're far from nutted. You checked flop because it favors the OOP player's range, and that hasn't changed on the turn.
Solver raises most non Ad combos and raises like 10% of Ad combos for what that’s worth- also is calling the jam (I guess obviously)
I guess that makes sense if you expect the jam to include a lot of pair + draw combos. I just would expect to see a fair amount of two pair, straights, and sets as well. (Maybe not two pair at this stack depth, but he could have 76s or 65s.) I guess this shallow (SPR under 5?) it's never that terrible to get the money in with an overpair of aces.
That said, though, given the info about how villain played KK, I struggle to picture us being ahead very often here.
Yeah I somehow don’t think this guy is finding the bluffs/ semi bluffs and likely would just call with a J. And my interpretation of the live read is “OMG I have the nuts but I’m blind so gotta make sure”
Not simple really. We under repped our hand on the flop.
However we do block a bunch of flush draws. I also think that draws wouldn't necessarily jam after our raise on the turn.
Given how he didn't raise with KK preflop when you had JJ he likely wouldn't raise with JJ here preflop in the SB. So he could have that.
I probably fold.
Also, I wouldn't have raised on the turn. But because of that and the flop check back I would call a river bet which could easily be more than the raise we made...
Just flat call if you are going to fold to a push.
I called thinking I had 6 outs against 2p and sometimes he has a J and just doesn’t think I can have anything too good.
He had 98 for the nuts.
I think specifically in light of the live read, it’s a fold because that particular action often means exactly a straight, as he is checking to make sure the cards line up the way he thought.
