Late MTT GTO: Q4o bbvsbu rfi/srp AsJs4d9c - wtf folding Qs but calling 4s?
Hi Folks - I am studying some spots that confuse me in the solver. I considered posting in the theory forum but I'd like to try it first here in MTT since this is where these spots are.
Situation: Deep in a multi day $1100 main tourney, after the money bubble, just after the dinner break - less than 10% remain - there's like five tables left.
Villain who is a pro - or seems like a good young competent wizard - RFI OTB w 20bb. SB folds and it's to Hero (not a pro but solid image) covers and calls with Q 4 .
Flop A J 4 (5.5bb): Hero checks, Villain bets 33%, Hero calls.
Turn 9 (9.1bb): Hero checks, Villain bets 55%, Hero?
What is interesting here is that GTO is folding everything EXCEPT the combos with a 4 spade.
I found this to be interesting. GTO recommends to CALL with Q[/B] 4 / Q 4 / Q 4 and FOLD Q 4 / Q 4. Here is my reasoning - please try to pick it apart or roast it as I am here to learn: Having a non spade Q blocker blocks Vil's range of strong possible hands such as AQ, QJ - possibly making him weaker here as it would make sense, and him being a pro with his 20bb stack he might already consider himself "already dead" so he is trying to represent with a very strong follow-through having just 20bb to start and putting him at 11.2bb at this point in the hand; he just really needs to chip up here at this stage of the tourney (after the dinner break) and his play looks super strong - it has a lot of fold equity! Also with a non-spade queen, I am less vulnerable to being outkicked by their possible AQ/AJ hands should a Q drop otr which actually gives me more outs. If Vil indeed has a weaker queen (e.g., QK, QT), the queen in my hand gives me you additional outs to hit 2p otr. He can also be bombing with str8 combos as well (78 T7 T8 QT). So we are folding the negative spade queen because this tips him towards betting for value with his AK, AJ, KJ QJ combos. Having the spade Q actually makes me more vulnerable to his value range thus giving me fewer two pair outs to improve.
... WHY?
FWIW I use the color combos in the forum because it's easier to see behind my dark background and ignites my game brain with the colored suits. I can do the standard lettered suits of: s h d c if that's better for everyone however.
5 Replies
As played, this is a fold, never value betting worse, and are you willing to call another street if you don't hit another 4 or Q? Seems a bit of a spew but that's just me, and I would just let it go preflop or if I really felt he had air, 3 bet but stack sizes I don't think make that a very profitable play over the long run.
but again I am no GTO expert by any means, most of this stuff goes over my head but I am trying to learn and understand it a little bit more each day. Absolutely it is bizarre that it would recommend to call with only various combos of Q4, I mean what is the difference?
I would surmise the Qs blocks a lot of his combo draws that would be barreling the turn, weighing his continuing range to value.
Note also though that this is a chipEV simulation you ran, and you are deep enough in the tournament for ICM to be a significant factor, which changes ranges and lines. I wouldn't be surprised if this hand is a fold pre (maybe with some small consideration to 3-betting) because of that.
First of all, what is your stack size?
My guess (like Nath) is that if we block flush draws with a Q then we must fold because Villain will be betting for value much more of the time.
Personally I would call pre-flop with >27 bb's but would fold otherwise.
Assuming we have >27 bb's pre-flop I don't hate the flop call. GTO/Solver guy should be betting 60%+ pot on the flop because the range favors him and yet he is making a very small cbet.
However on the turn I will basically fold all of the time. I think villain gives up a lot because if he doesn't have an A and you do he is toast if he keeps betting. He could have a draw or combo draw that improved because of the 9 like QT. But he also could have hit a pair with the 9.
He was opening with just under 20bb and Hero covers. Does it matter by how much?
I liked all the responses.
Regarding folding pre I ran it with the few ICM settings I have in my limited subscription including the final 3 tables and it definitely did not fold.
Darren Elias said in his vid series that after the flop, the solver pretty much goes out the window. I wonder if over thinking these blockers leads to more shenanigans... especially with me who is always finding an excuse to call lol.
Even higher 3-bet frequency than I suspected. At these stages of the tournament, high/low combos are good candidates for 3-bet bluffs because you have a card that blocks a lot of their continuing range but your hand plays really poorly postflop.
