Help with turn call decision and strategy vs small flop bets (MTT)
Hi everyone,
I'm looking for advice on a hand I played in an MTT.
I'm trying to figure out if my turn call was a mistake and how to adjust against small sizings.
Hand Details
Context: Villain (VPIP 40%, PFR 40% over 6 hands).
My hand: K♥J♥.
Preflop: I raised to 2.5 BB from MP, and Villain (BB) 3-bet to 9.75 BB. I called.
Flop: T♥ 4♥ A♣ (pot: 20.72 BB). Villain bet 6.18 BB (~30% pot), and I called.
Turn: 3♦ (pot: 33.08 BB). Villain bet 14.54 BB (~1/2 pot).
I have flush draw + gutshot. Based on pot odds, I need 30.5% equity to call, but I think I only have around 20-25% equity.
Question: Should I only call if Villain bets 1/3 pot or less (giving pot odds that match my actual equity)?
Flop (pot: 20.72 BB): Villain made a very small bet (6.18 BB, ~30% pot) on a draw-heavy board like T♥ 4♥ A♣.
Follow-up question: On this type of board, what kind of hands should I be raising against a small sizing?
Should I include bluffs (like weaker draws or backdoor equity), or stick to a more passive strategy?
Thanks in advance for your insights!
6 Replies
How deep are you?
Nath is right. We need to know how deep you are since you could have significantly better implied EV than actual EV if you are deep. On the other hand, you will also have worse reverse implied odds if V is hold Ahxh. I think I call here if we have more than 2x pot remaining after calling the turn ... and pray for a non-heart Q to realize all your implied EV.
As to you follow up, (without reads on the particular V) I don't think you have any raises OOP vs the 3-bettor on this board; it really favors V's range.
We're both 100 BB deep.
By my calculations you only need 23% equity. Not sure where you're getting 30.5%.
The problem is that sometimes he's going to have the ace high flush draw and you'll go broke. 100 BBs deep I could go either way. With the ace of hearts on the board it's a much clearer call.
1/2 pot bet requires 25% equity plus you have a lot of chips behind and position so its an easy call on the turn.
Its going to be a small raising range on this board. Built around 44, TT, and AK. Solver mostly uses underpairs w/o a heart to bluff, which is pretty unintuitive.
You arent missing much EV with your good hands by flatting though, so its probably fine to just play pure call on the flop.
