Iggy 200k Bubble Spot
Blinds 7500/15k less than 10 away from money, about 270 get paid. Avg stack is going to be a little less than 300k
Ignition MTTs are structured so that 20% of the field gets a decent min cash, then pay jumps are very flat until the FT. Min cash is for $260, top 36 cash is ~$500.
Hero has ~550k. UTG min raises off 350k. Hero next to act with AKs 3bets to 5bb. A 37/22 whale who has me covered cold calls the 3bet in MP. Folds to UTG who calls.
2s3s5h flop. 17.5bb pot. UTG checks. Whats the line here with a bdfd? Whale doubled me up recently triple barrelling a near 0 equity hand that shouldnt have been played preflop. Then almost doubled me up again c/r/calling flop and calling turn jam with KJ on KQ9 (I had JT and he rivered a chop)
Whats the play here? I feel like every action has merit and have no clue whats best. Safe line would be to just c/f and lock up the min cash with an above avg stack but also, doubling up here gives up a top stack and makes us a real threat for a deep run.
If I cbet, I feel like I need to call it off vs the whale bc he is going to "put me on AK" and jam a lot.
15 Replies
I think you can afford to check flop. With the ICM considerations and ~160k in pot, you have two streets to gii if you improve/want to put whale in a tough spot.
Checking allows the ‘whale’ all sorts of moves and gives us no opportunity to refine their ranges.
Bet with range advantage.
30-35%.
[QUOTE]If I cbet, I feel like I need to call it off vs the whale bc he is going to "put me on AK" and jam a lot./QUOTE]
C-bet JAM to stop whale jamming and get him to fold.
It seems like if the whale has an overpair he will be playing it aggressively. I think betting takes away from him spazzing with a bad hand. So I'd be pretty happy to check and see what he does, it also allows us to see how strong UTG is.
we sure it's always a 3b here with ICM?
AKo for sure I'm flatting a ton and no ICM definitely pure 3betting suited, but there's gotta be some distortions here and UTG open range is probably vastly different than absent those distortions.
never folding to any flop action and bet small or x both look OK.
we sure it's always a 3b here with ICM?
AKo for sure I'm flatting a ton and no ICM definitely pure 3betting suited, but there's gotta be some distortions here and UTG open range is probably vastly different than absent those distortions.
never folding to any flop action and bet small or x both look OK.
ICM is actually a huge disincentive to flatting, especially in EP vs. EP spots. Probably should have a tight range overall with virtually no flats.
I am not sure if I would 3! UTG+1 and if I did I would make it more than 2.5x. If you don't 3!, then you pretty much have to backraise unless there is a 4!
This is a really wet wheel card 2-flush flop, and we didn't really hit it that hard. I would check and reevaluate. If there is a bet and checkraise, I would generally fold. If the whale bets and UTG folds, I might shove figuring there is a lot in the center and you are OK against an overpair or flush draw. If it checks through, then you can reevaluate based on the turn card.
I think you can be a little wider than that, mostly you want hands that are very Ax/Kx blocker heavy maybe a few suited wheel Ax and some suited broadways, along with pairs down to TT although that feels kind of gross. You do want some board coverage in the somewhat rare scenarios where you get called. Also villain's jam range is going to be very snug, so your call-off range vs 4-bet is probably going to be exactly JJ+, AK. So having a few more bluffs in range isn't a bad thing.
yeah if I recall (its been a minute since I studied bubble spots) jp youre getting really warm now
TT+, ATs+, AJo+, KTs+ and sprinklings of A9s-, QJs, JTs, KQo, ATo then?
Really curious for your most precise ranging of MP cold caller.
UTG opener too for that matter.
Can you sketch them out please?
I wanna run a janky lil sim in this spot with some REALLY questionable tractability assumptions.
Maybe we can at least set some upper bounds for ICM pressure.
What about:
- Model as stone bubble spot with 10 up top and 2 paying 2-8. Split between a top-heavy prize and min prizes
- Only BTN and BB can call after an earlier player has called
- Only you and MP are deep enough to 3b to 5bb (since average stack is ~20bb)
- Other than you and MP, roughly eyeball approximately ~20bb average stacks.
I'm thinking maybe:
- UTG calls pre too often on Iggy. Too many 99, TT, JJ even.
- MP who knows.
- Ignoring MP think its a clear cbet to put pressure on those 99, TT, even JJ. Would he really always stack off post here? Even close to always?
and personally I'd fold JJ pre to the 3b even QQ too. It sucks.
- 9 person table
- "Max ICM Pressure" (stone bubble) on the left and sensitivity run with a bit relaxed ICM pressure (1 to stone bubble) on the right
Open Ranges. Clearly incentivize:
- -blockers vs seeing flops (Ax)
- -like a game of chicken: keep throwing out Ax vs Ax and see who blinks first. You block AA!
- -vast majority of 4b response is 4b ship. Ax needed vs unique calling range structure. KK+, AK. Those blockers are so vital. But also Ax has the best hope vs KK.
- -clear distortions
Hero response vs Open
Blue=ship
yellow=5bb
green=call
- A-heavy range vs A-heavy range
- Heavier ICM pressure=slightly wider VPIP
- Heavier ICM pressure = more egregious 3betting. Hero covers and can exert.
- Heavier ICM pressure = shift to ships instead of 5bbs. Unexploitable to be more aggressive the more pressure that can be exerted, seems pretty logical. Opener has to fold more and just a few basis points (400bp here) extra fold frequency makes a differene. With Ax blocker possibly not see the flop even 20% of the time after ship.
- AKs shift is interesting. If we're gonna get JJ, QQ to fold and can attack with crap like A8o, why "waste" AKs with a 3b. It can win totally easily postflop, playing as a pseudotrap here.
- Weaker ICM pressure lengthens OOP calling range vs 3b. 99, 88, ATs. This incentivizes more polar 3betting with those Axs. Now why 3b AJs just to get A9s- to fold?
Max ICM pressure not crazy to think we have to fold QQ vs 5bb.
Need to gamble with them to be unexploitable when the ICM relaxes just a notch:
Lastly, wouldn't surprise me if he can click it back to 11bb sometimes. Crazy ICM distortions potentially there.
As far as ranging the MP whale.... he cold called 66 here and jammed over a small cbet. Good Luck
