Am I missing something with the following regarding pot odds and ranges.
A very conservative player raise to two big blinds in the hijack.
The big blinds who is aggressive and somewhat short stacked call with 10 2 off suit.
The flop comes 10 6 2 rainbow. The big blind checks and the aggressor bets 3 big blinds which is called.
The turn is a blank they both check and the river is a ten. The Raiser loses a big pot and flips. He goes to our home game and berets the person for calling on the flop. Everyone but me agrees.
I try to discuss ranges and how they effect calls but I am told by the aggressor that I don't understand how ranges work.
I said even if he is only going to raise with aces, kings, queens and ace king its an easy call because there are:
6 combinations of aces, 6 of kings, 6 of queens and 16 of ace king. In my mind he is leading in 18 and losing in 16 for a % of 53. If you factor in that he might do the raise with ace queen and pairs below 10 the big blind is going to be the favourite. He is putting in 3 blinds into a pot that will then be 11.5 bigs. He doesn't even need to consider implied odds.
My question is am I missing something important in my calculations?
3 Replies
A good rule of thumb is that the tight-ass pissing and moaning because he lost a big pot is usually wrong.
The call with T2 was bad pre. Money is going in otf no matter what. The fellow brating is bad for poker. The fish calling with atc is not.
Lots of stuff wrong here...
If the BB calls with T2o and the flop is T62r then he flopped two pair. The HJ bets 3 bb's and the question can't be should the BB fold with 2 pair. Maybe there was a typo and the flop is T63 or something and you are asking should BB be calling with top pair.
And here is the thing. If BB is calling pre-flop with T2o and flops top pair there is no way he is folding. Its like one of best flops he can get. The question is basically is he going to jam as part of a stop 'n go tactic.
Also you should understand that this isn't about calculations. Anyone who is calling pre-flop with T2o in the BB is not going to be math based. The guy who raised pre-flop is ahead pre-flop 100% of the time basically. He is very upset that he lost due to a bad runout. I assume he had JJ+ and was basically an 88% favorite pre-flop. After the flop he would be an 80% favorite. After the turn he is again an 88% favorite to win. This is why he is so upset. The BB though called to get lucky and got lucky.
Another wrong thing, if HJ has raised 2x pre-flop with JJ+ and is called by BB and the flop is T62r and he bets 3 bb's and is called then why isn't he going all in on the turn against the short stack when it is a blank? Unless the plan is to pretend he missed and wants the BB to bet the river and is going to jam then (except the board pairs)
The last I don't get is what happened on the river. Did BB jam when he hit a boat or trips? Did it go check then jam by HJ then call?
