$300 live, top pair/blocker vs Villain river shove
9-max $300 live MTT
110 entrants, 45 remaining, 13 places itm
Blinds: 2k/4k (bb ante)
UTG+1: 150k
MP: 90k
BTN: 350k
SB (Hero): 128k
BB: 70k
Hero has Q♥9♥
UTG+1 opens to 8k, MP calls, BTN calls, Hero (SB) calls, BB folds
Flop: 9♠ 8♦ 2♣ (pot 40k)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP checks, BTN bets 12k, Hero raises to 34k, UTG+1 folds, MP folds, BTN calls
Turn: 9♠ 8♦ 2♣ 8♠ (pot 108k)
Hero checks, BTN checks
River: 9♠ 8♦ 2♣ 8♠ 4♥ (pot 108k)
Hero checks, BTN goes all-in (covers Hero by a lot), Hero ??
Notes: UTG+1 and MP are semi-nits, BTN is somewhat aggresive (probably the best player of the MTT)
Also, what you think of flop raise? Does it make sense?
My thought process
Preflop:
Quite standard, hand that plays well multiway. Ruling out squeeze OOP vs UTG and MP tight ranges.
Flop:
BTN bets bit less of 1/3 of pot after seeing all the passive action from UTG+1 and MP. Think he still has somewhat of a wide range, and could be trying to steal the pot cheaply, or setting up one for the turn if he does not hit.
BTN range:
- Broadway type of draws, maybe with backdoors. (QT, QJ, JT)
- Top pair hands: (A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s..)
- Mid-pair hands: (A8s, 98s, 87s)
- Overpairs: (JJ, TT) *will probably bet bigger otf
- Sets: (22, 99, 88)
- Other hands/bluffs: (AT, KQ, 77, J7s,.. )
Hero's hand is decent with TPMK but just calling will probably induce UTG+1 or MP to continue with AK, broadway hands. Also, because of a somewhat wide range and style perceived from the BTN think about raising as the best option, to throw UTG+1 and MP of the pot, or know if they were slowplaying, and potentially throw BTN off his garbage hands or find out where we stand.
After BTN's call, what does BTN range look like? (JT, 76, ¿QJ-QT with backdoor flush?, 98s, 87s, A9, K9, T9, 99, 88, 22) Does he not shove some hands like TT-JJ-98-A9? Not sure.
Turn:
As the 8 doubles, that makes less combos of 88-98 possible. 1 combo of 88, 1 combo of 98s (I hold 9♥, on board 9♠, 8♦, 8♠, so only 9♣8♣ possible, and 3 combos of 22 (considering nobody folded a 2 before of 10 folded cards)
However it does hit some 87s, T8s hands, maybe A8s as well.
Hero checks with the intention of seeing if BTN shoves. He could shove a hand like 87s, T8s, thinking I have a draw to not let me hit on the river.
However, if he does not have a strong hand, such as a draw or any hand with a 9 (A9,T9,J9) he is probably checking back.
So my thinking is he should be checking full-houses (99,88,98,22) and (JT,76,A9,K9,J9,T9) and shoving/betting any 8 for protection...maybe I'm wrong on this.
At this point Hero's remaining stack is 86k and pot is 104k so SPR<1
River:
Check as Hero has a bluffcatcher and could beat other top pairs such as J9s,T9s and some draws that decide not to bluff.
What is BTN shoving? (5 combos of full houses, JT and 76 combos, TT-JJ if they are even played this way?)
6 Replies
I would say it's really player dependent, but if you're not happy getting all your chips in you probably shouldn't raise the flop.
I think you have to make the call.
Your line after the flop x/r is very passive because you completely shut down and checked turn and river. So he can easily put you on a capped range. And I don't think villain checks behind on the turn with a strong hand. With the straight draw and turned flush draw, he's going to want to get chips in for value. I also agree he would likely bet larger on the flop with a hand like TT/JJ. Also, the fact that your x/r was relatively small and he has position means he can call a bit wider.
The paired board with all draws missing is bad for polarized sizing because it's so difficult to get value with a full house, which leans me towards bluff. You also unblock all the draws.
If I were going to c/r the flop it would be about 40k (like 3.5x the BTN bet size). But that would be about 30% effective stack so I would probably just jam.
As played, on the turn I would jam.
As played on the river its hard to know whether BTN has 8x, 22 or a draw hand like JT. I think BTN can check back the turn sometimes with 8x (or 22) in order to make you think he is on a draw.
I do think that the river bet is polarizing and can easily be a bluff. I probably call.
Checking the turn?
What was the plan?
Regardless, we’ve shown weakness and invited a river bet.
Think we can call, he has plenty of bluffs.
Fold pre. This hand does not play particularly great OOP multi-way, in fact, you probably shouldn't flat any hands in this spot. Just play a 3-bet (primarily jamming, maybe a small amount of 4-bet non all-in) or fold strategy. Q9s isn't good enough to mix into that range.
On the flop, we're kind of in no-man's land. The concern about raising is that we still have UTG in particular who should probably check a ton on hands on the flop and may be less uncapped than you think. BTN's range is a bit of a muddle too. I guess if I have T9s-A9s here, I'd probably raise A9/K9 more often and lean flat with the weaker 9x.
Once you get to the turn with this line and the board pairs, you really have to discern whether BTN is going to do a lot of multi-way betting and subsequent calling of check-raises with 8x. If we think they have a fair amount of 8x in range, then I don't necessarily hate checking turn as you want to be able to bet for value on some safe rivers or bluff catch on less safe ones. Jam might be ok if we think villain has capability of finding calls with draws (turned flush draws, JT, etc.) or marginal made hands like 77-66 that stuck around to the check-raise. Otherwise we're just value owning ourselves a lot.
On the river, our hand feel close between being good enough to jam (especially when villain checks back turn) or being a pretty nice block bet. If we do block, I'd probably just shrug call a jam as a bunch of stuff missed. A lot of the thinnish value hands the BTN has that beat us probably don't exist in this line, as we'd expect the best 9x and TT-JJ (if those exist) to bet turn, so villain's likely super polar here. It's either trips+ or air. Because of that, when we check, I think calling is pretty mandatory.
Yeah, for sure fold pre, playing this OOP multiway is going to be really hard to realize equity. Agree should prob have no flats at all, if I did want to, pairs and suited aces I would prefer over hands like this.
