ICM cbet sizing

Actually - and sure, this depends in part on how deep the stacks are exactly - you can generally lower your flop c-bet size, but bet more frequently. If it's a 100% b30 spot, maybe you 100% b25 (or even b20). Some spots where you might mix checking and betting, or mix sizes, become pure small bets. Just because the covered stack is more likely to play face-up against you in these scenarios, and doesn't want to get their own stack in without a strong hand, so you don't really have to worry as much about light check-raises or floats.

You'll get more folds than you would without ICM because players won't be chasing marginal or backdoor hands. And if you do get a call, you can size on the turn in a way to make a river all-in a possibility. That will get more folds than usual too, because of the implied pressure from a river shove.

Dara O'Kearney's Endgame Poker Strategy covers this in more detail.

if theyre gonna XR less than shouldnt we cbet larger?

thanks for the rec ill check that out.

Good thread.

So far here are the predictions on What general statements can make about ICM effects on flop cbet sizing and the thought process behind them:

Larger Sizing

• ICM-->More Folds-->Larger sizing for max folds
  
• Lower check raise frequency
  

Smaller Sizing+Higher Frequency
ICM-->Opponents likely easier to play against (play less exploitatively 'face up' and perhaps more exploitably too)

I think all 3 of these things can be true. If you can exert some pressue, you probably do get to cbet more often.

But losing sucks too with ICM: you might need some REALLY serious pressure to not have any checks

Here's a spot I have handy:

3 left.

BTN (Us) 65bb
SB 35bb
BB 10bb


BTN Open2x
SB calls

betting a bit more
allocating the extra bets between small and moderate sizings
no real difference with cEV strategy.
ICM pressure virtually kills any donking

The strategy is pretty much immaterially different.

• You can't barrel with impunity.
  
• Compared to cEV, there'll be plenty of spots where he can eek a few more folds out of you just as you can of him. It's not all pointed totally in your favor here.
  
• You get a lot of folds pre. Defense ranges are a lot tighter than your range.
  

Eggs:

Your example is interesting, but 3 left is not as high ICM as it appears. I'd be curious if you reran this and made it 8 players left at an FT, where the ICM is much higher.

This is good post. I like cbetting super small but very frequently on boards that favor us as the opener- aka the bb is going to have a much weaker range most of the time. I like cbetting small and bluffing turn at times also fairly small so we can just give up on a turn raise or a call call line.

Say we raise 2bb and bb defends so pot is 5.5bb. I think 1.5-2.5 bb is normally solid cbet and continuing with a turn bet can be really tough to call down even with 2nd or 3rd pair as opener can bluff a ton here. I like betting small bc continuing for bb is very tough bc we threaten their stack and they have to guess if they don’t flop top pair. I like to cbet most flops with an A,K,Q,J and check flops that tend to favor a bb defend- think like 256 or 469. Obviously our hand matters and suits if flush draw exists.

I tend to like cbetting super small in these spots as the bb has to play pretty tight and face up. If we cbet 1.5bb into 5.5bb, they can continue but also have to worry about a turn bet. If we bet 1/2 pot into 8.5bb, it gets to a spot where bb has to worry about a chunky river bet if they go call call on flop and turn. Another odd spot- if we open A3 for example and it comes AQ6, we can mix imo between cbet and check as sometimes we run into a better Ax. We kinda like checking these big aces as we can go bet turn and bet river and hope someone will call down with a mid pair etc bc most folks are cbetting Ax on an Axx flop almost 100%. We should expect folks to tighten up a lot with how they play back when it’s mid stack vs big stack and icm is high- aka it’s a huge mistake for a midstack to get it all in against big stack without a super strong hand.

The other thing I should add is that it's not strictly about busting, but even just that holding on to your chips becomes much more valuable at a final table. That's why you can get more folds even with the threat of putting someone all-in on a later street.