Am I priced in here? (Borgata WPO live spot)
Borgata Winter Poker Open Seniors event ($365 buy-in). Level 4. Blinds 400/800 w BB ante. Still in the re-entry period of event that will eventually have 500+ runners and a $30K first prize.
Hero has 45K (from 30K starting stack) in the SB.
Villain #1 is in MP with 8000 stack. Has played a lot of hands, but has folded frequently post-flop to a bet. Recently lost most of his chips in a hand where he had top pair and lost to a flush.
Villain #2 is in BB with 15K stack. Has been active and splashy.
Hero is dealt AJo in the SB.
UTG+1 player limps in for 800
Villain #1 calls 800 (limp)
Button also limps in for 800
Hero in SB raises to $5000
Villain #2 in BB cold-calls the $5000
UTG+1 folds
Villain #1 jams for remaining $7200, which is not a full raise.
Knowing that Villain #2 cannot re-jam, Hero calls for $3000 more
Villain #2 calls
Pot = 26,200
Flop is 9-7-6 rainbow
Hero checks
Villain #2 jams in his remaining $7000
Hero must put in 7000 into total pot that will be 40,200 (14K side pot). Needs ~18% equity for break-even EV.
Is this an easy call based on pot odds, or a careful fold in a MTT to retain 7000 chips from stack that is now 37,000 (where 30K is a starting stack)?
4 Replies
If I think pf, I either fold or shove, depending on my read of V2. I think calling pre is by far the worst option, especially against described V. You had to know the jam was coming on the flop?
As described, I rejam pre.
As played, it sucks. Sigh call.
OOP with AJo and we create an inflated pot.
So many games are full of limp/call players especially during the re-entry phase and I’d be inclined to make a smaller raise here (if I raise at all).
As played? Fold, you only have two over cards and no certainty that the A would be good if it arrives.
Stack sizes of UTG+1 and BTN are important to know what should have been done pre-flop. Its tricky because its a Senior event and we do block AA. I think we have a bit much to jam pre-flop but its important to know what effective stack size is.
Still, I don't mind a jam because the player behind us has 18 blinds and that is the only player who didn't just limp. I think if UTG+1 or BTN had hands like 88 they would likely call our 5000 bet but would fold to a jam. Though in theory they could call with smallish stacks (like less than 25,000 chips).
I think I would rather call than raise to 5000 and play OOP in a very big pot.
Something like this happened to me Day 1 in a WSOP Senior Tournament over 10 years ago. It went limp (with 30 blinds) limp (with 17 blinds) though I wasn't in the SB. I was like HJ or CO and I had K8s and about 35 or 40 blinds. So I jammed. The SB tanked and folded AJs (which he said after the hand) and the original limper folded. The 2nd limper said "I know you are ahead but I just can't fold" and he called with Q9s. Which won and I got knocked out soon after...
Thanks for comments.
In real time, and particularly given that we were in the re-entry period, I chose to call, thinking that my pot odds were such that I couldn't fold.
Villain #1 showed QQ
Villain #2 showed KK
I spiked an Ace on the river and felted both. Obviously, very lucky. After the fact, I flagged that hand as one where I wondered if I made the correct call in a theoretical sense vs. the actual outcome.
