[Early MTT] Cracked Aces and bust: complete spew?

Preflop 3 bet size is good (its what I would do).

On the flop because there are 2 broadways I would make it 10 or 11 bb's. For me JT has a lot of draws that can get there.

The size of the c/r is suspicious. I wouldn't fold but it makes the next streets difficult. When somebody clicks it back on a c/r it is almost always because they have smashed the flop if they are OOP. That's because they will have to act first on the next street. In position they can possibly check it back to get a "free" card (OK it isn't quite free but it is likely cheaper than what it would cost if they hadn't c/r'd). Also I would doubt that Villain has Jx hands because they would mostly just call because you can have QQ/KK/AA/TT. However, they might c/r in case a Q/K/A doesn't come and you would check it back with AK.

The turn is the street to fold but I doubt I would do it. If an A/K/Q/3 comes on the river I'm guessing Villain will check but because you only have 31 bb's left Villain will call your jam if its an A or 3.

I think it is a cooler and not much you can do about it. I got knocked out of a Foxwoods tournament in basically this exact situation. I raise jammed the turn. Villain did think about folding but in the end called with top two.

This might seem very nitty, but I believe we can fold already on turn here, unless we know/think villain is very loose aggressive.

Let's view this hand from villains perspective:

- They probably don't view Hero as a maniac or very loose aggressive
- They saw Hero 3-bet Pre
- They saw Hero call their checkraise OTF.
- The turn is a blank (so if they bluff they can't represent any draw getting there)
- They're OOP

In spite of all this they bet almost 60% pot OTT. They must realise that a big part of your range consists of overpairs to the board. They could have kings, but wouldn't that hand 4-bet pre? They could have KQ of diamonds that just picked up a flush draw, but I don't think they're supposed to semi-bluff such a strong hand because of the risk you shove on them. But even more likely is a set (they probably call both JJ, TT and 55 pre) or the top two pair, although I would say they shouldn't only open/call JT from UTG if suited.

They could do this with AJ. But I believe in reality most players will slow down in a situation like this after the flop, because of the strength you've showed.

All in all I think in real life and in a live tournament like this we will be behind - way behind - most of the time - with few outs. Which I why consider a very tight fold here. That said in a real situation, holding the rockets myself I probably call turn.

If we call turn I believe we should fold this brick river, although we get a very good price. The likelihood an unknown bluffs here or overvalues a hand like AJ isn't big enough. 36 BB is still a stack we can rebuild with.

Always best not to give results in hand analysis.

Horrible spot, as Brunson once said Aces either wins a small pot or loses a big one.

Preflop looks fine - you can probably go bigger without losing a customer.
Flop, personally i hope I can sometimes find a fold here vs some of the population of games at this buyin - they play very face-up and will only raise 2pair or better.
Would they play A10 / AJ like this? They shouldn’t, but hands get overvalued all the time.
Call flop and fold turn? We’ve accepted that players have a tendency to get excited with TPTK and we’re good against that so I can see calling sometimes but again, I hope I can find the fold.

What does a solver say? F*#* knows, but Villain has all 3 sets in range and not much 89 or KQ so I’d expect to see some folds in the output.

Thank you guys, very helpful comments.

Definitely something I need to work on, I tend to get discouraged and throw tournaments when my stack melts (or threatens to melt) early.

I'll echo the comment about not posting results, it does subconsciously skew the opinions people provide.

A situation like this really depends on the live dynamic. If you have a read on the player and a feel for population tendencies. In online tourneys, people can make this kind of flop x/r with a bunch of non-monsters: top pair, straight draw, even hands like A5. But in this context it might mean something very different.

Also, I wouldn't put too much thought into villain's bet sizing. This is a low stakes live tourney, most players easily lose track of pot/stack sizes and don't have an understanding of "correct" sizing.

So you kind of have to go with your gut here. In a live tourney I would lean towards folding river because I would rather be wrong and still be alive in the tourney with a workable stack.

Yes, I understand that and will keep it in mind for further posts, thank you.

In the live poker circles I've been in, everyone is RO all the time when talking hands, so it rubs off haha. Trying to get detached from that now.