Tough river call at Commerce tournament
Had about 48K in chips; villain had me covered. BB 1,200. On button with KhJc.
Villain in cutoff raises to 3,500. I flat call. Everyone else folds. Pot: 10.5K
Flop: Kc9c8s
He bets 8K. I don't think he has AK or KQ here and I thought about raising. Decided to call. Pot: 26.5K.
Turn: 6c
He checks. I check back.
River: 3c
Now four clubs on the board; I have the third nuts. He bets 15K. My read at this point was that he either has Ac or a flopped set. He's not making this bet with just top pair. Doing the math, my minimum defense frequency was 64%; meaning that I would call with 64% of my range. Definitely not raising here. After tanking I called.
He showed AcJs and won the pot.
Was this a bad call or was it the right call given the pot odds & MDF but just a cooler?
1 Reply
Had about 48K in chips; villain had me covered. BB 1,200. On button with KhJc.
Villain in cutoff raises to 3,500. I flat call. Everyone else folds. Pot: 10.5K
Flop: Kc9c8s
He bets 8K. I don't think he has AK or KQ here and I thought about raising. Decided to call. Pot: 26.5K.
Turn: 6c
He checks. I check back.
River: 3c
Now four clubs on the board; I have the third nuts. He bets 15K. My read at this point was that he either has Ac or a flopped set. He's not making this bet with just top pair. Doin
Lots of stuff here. First while the defend is ok, I'd be careful vs this big size. I'd throw away some of your bottom of range stuff here, like QT/JT
On the flop you dismiss AK/KQ. I have no idea why, as I'd expect those to be a large part of Villains big bet strategy. He puts your worse Kx and straight draws in a tough spot. AA also makes a ton of sense. You don't need to raise a near PSB very often, as it is already polarized (you are behind his value, and ahead of his bluffs). He probably doesn't use a huge size here with stuff like QQ or good draws.
On the turn, you were thinking about raising, and now a card comes that is good for your range, and he checks. You block some flushes with your Jc. Yet, you give no reasoning as to why this is a check back. You have a clear target as well, all his Ax with a club, even his QJ/QT with a club...
On the river, you mention Villain might have a flopped set. Why would he bet that, turning it into a bluff?
Should you call? Most bluff catches are 'break even', and most players under bluff 4 flushes on board. You can call, but I'd be surprised if Villain has enough bluffs to make this break even for chips. Add in a little ICM premium as well (sounds like you are at a point where 1/3 of the field is gone, so that is a minor factor).
