AK vs river raise

So we lose to A4hh, call it 2 combos of JJ since I'd think a reg would 3 bet this at some frequency off 37 bigs, maybe AJ in full (6 combos), I'm not going to give him any 33. So we have to call 18 to win 78.5 = roughly 25%. So does he have 3 combos of AQ/spazzes that would take this line to make this call profitable? I'd say fold.

We never see a worse hand for value, and even though his river value range is pretty narrow, I don't think people find bluffs on these A high boards when a flush bricks out.

The conventional wisdom seems to be that ‘nobody bluffs rivers’ which would make this a fold.

But we’ve created a situation here where our call is pretty small compared to the available pot so we have to give serious consideration to making a call.

We could add a few KsXs combos to his range that gets to the river, KsQs, KsJs, Ks10s as a minimum. That gets us to >25% …

All that being said I’d fold, but hate myself for doing it.

I call here.

Our flop bet sizing is so small it looks like we don't have an A. Similar with our turn bet sizing which normally would be more than half pot.

Our river bet sizing looks like either an A or a bluff on a missed flush draw or a PP. Given the way we bet so far I probably check/call on the river to make it look like we missed so Villain will bluff more (and bet some of his Ax hands for value)

I don't think we will win with our call on the river much of the time. I would expect Villain with AJ to 3bet some of the time preflop and to raise our turn bet some of the time. We only have to succeed about 23% of the time so I would probably call and feel bad.

I'd be pretty sure this is a theory call. Villain is supposed to float that 1BB fairly wide; In addition to his flush draws which sometimes raise, he will have all broadway clubs as well. Those broadway draws picked up equity on the turn as well. So he can have hands like KQs or even Jxcc or Jxss that he is turning into a bluff.

Just pay.

Check calling river would be pretty much a slam dunk.

Exploitatively, we can find a fold here and I think you need to in order to crush live tournaments. When you triple including for the big size on river and V jams IP over it with barely any perceived fold equity you'll almost never see a bluff here.

The more I think about this one the less I hate folding.

RESULT

Hero calls vs AJo

I think the bigger growth opportunity is to look at your own sizings. Why are you sizing your bets in such a way that you're facing this decision? I think AK should usually be bet, bet jamming.

As I was reading the thread I was thinking villain would most likely show up with AJ given the line and river jam. I still don't think you can fold unless your opponent is just the face up never bluffing type?

The way you played it though, you're letting AT, AQ, Ax, etc off the hook by not getting all the money in yourself on the river. They likely call down and you miss out on some value when you're good.

Then with the pot odds you're getting facing the river jam you can't really fold river anyway.

So the way the hand was played you lose more when you're beat and win less when you're good. See what I'm saying? Sometimes you're going to get coolered. Sometimes whether you could get away and fold is not really the question. In this case I think the bigger issue is whether you're getting max value when your hand is good.