$400 WSOP circuit preflop spot

30 away out of how many?

I think JJ is too strong to fold, but I might consider it in a massive field tournament where 30 people is the soft bubble. (Even then, that would require a massive field like the WSOP main. You'll see AK a lot, but you can still see TT here as well, maybe 99 or even 88.)

There were like 450-500 runners in this one I think, something like 80 left 50 paid

Yeah, not close enough for bubble concerns to be significant. (I don't remember where I first read this, but I start looking at the "soft bubble" around the time when the field is roughly 115% of the people who make the money-- so in a tournament that pays 50, that would be 57.5. Which is obviously not exact, due to not having half a player in the field at any point, but 57-58 is still a good guideline.)

This guy would have to be a rock for me not to call, I think. Flipping isn't fun, but we can probably discount AA/KK at least somewhat given the size of the shove (26.5BB!), and we dominate some pairs he would shove. I feel like shoving a stack of that size means he's more likely to be lower in the shoving range than high; an UTG/8 range is a concern, but I would think he'd encourage action with AA/KK.. And we are 57% against AKo/AQo, that's not even strictly a "flip."

It should be a pretty clear call against a pro that is shoving appropriately. I agree with the what Nath said, but I would expect he might even be shoving wider. It wouldn't shock me if he showed up with AJ, AT, maybe even some A5s type hands (pros like to exploit the bubble).

I also think you can likely discount AA and KK somewhat as those hands might raise to a non-all-in size.

If I flat in a spot like this with jacks I'm pretty much smooth-calling hoping someone will jam. As you can imagine I bubble a lot of tournaments. Hahaha. But when you win you can abuse the bubble yourself and hopefully make a deep run.

When I call in spots like these I rarely see 88-TT though I believe it is possibly in the 3-bet range. Mostly its JJ+/AQ+. I do think AA is less likely than KK which is less likely than QQ. I also think AK is more likely than AQ.

When there is a 3-bet jam against a UTG open it's just a tough spot with JJ. We are probably getting close to the right price to call.

I would say I will call with JJ and fold TT here. But in practice its all about how I feel in the moment. If I think the field is very tough I will more likely call. If the field at my table has weaknesses I probably fold. It is also what I think about the player on the BTN. If he is youngish or has been very aggro with a widish potential range I call. If he is tightish or older I tend to fold.

I would call. Online this tends to be pairs (I've seen as weak as 44 do this) or AK/AQ. I don't see it that much live, but I can't imagine we're behind his range.

Part of the consideration is average stack size. With 450 runners @ 30,000 starting stack, that's 13.5 million chips and with 80 remaining the average stack is about 168K, making hero's 139K stack quite a bit less than average. But a double-up against this villain would take hero to 270K and in a very nice position approaching the bubble. (losing 12K more on this hand leaves hero even shorter with 25BB. Still playable, but starting to get pretty shortish.)

The risk/reward in this spot is substantial. For me, if I think this is a 52%+ EV spot (and I think it is), I'm ready to roll the dice. I'm really only super-worried about QQ here. We're ahead of almost the entire remainder of the shove-squeeze range.

counting the dead money I get 297k if we call and win-- even better.

Folding leaves us with 25BB and plenty of scope for advancement.
Calling and losing effectively ends our involvement in the tournament.
Calling and winning gives us an above average stack which has a marginally higher value than the 25BB stack we can have for certain.

We are maybe 52-55% if villain’s range is 88+ AJs+ AQo+

I’m folding JJ, on a good day I fold QQ here too.

Result: I did make the call and V had QQ and held, I still think it’s very close spot and I would probably fold TT and call JJ

59BB has a lot more than "marginally higher value" than 25BB. Like, this is "never play a big pot in a tournament ever" logic.

You're folding a hand with 53.24% equity when you need 41.5% to break even, and "on a good day" you're folding a hand with over 60% equity against that range?

Why are you playing tournaments if you want to pass edges that big in a situation like this?

ofc, this hand doesn't get posted otherwise.

Because making good decisions in marginal spots is important. Doubling your stack at this stage doesn’t double your equity. Losing 95% of your stack removes 98% of your equity.*

*not a precise % but you get the point.

man that would be a bad fold

I mean, yes, broadly speaking that's true. But the margins here are not as wide as you make them out to be. We're not at the money bubble or a spot with 8-12 left. 3/8 of the field still has to bust to even make the money. I don't see how you can pass up a 13% edge there, never mind a 20% edge. At this stage, maybe you pass a huge gamble for, I dunno, a 3% edge?

(And those edges are conservative. They assume he 100% shoves AA/KK, which I strongly doubt - he probably doesn't shove AA at all and KK maybe a slim percentage of the time.)

https://twitter.com/mikemcdonald89/statu...

lol

Just for comparison, I ran the same range (88+, AJs+, AQo+) but with button never shoving AA and shoving KK 1/3 of the time. JJ's equity against the range jumps to 58.9% in that case. QQ is all the way up to 68.33%.

On the other hand, button only shoving 10s-KK, AQs+ AKo gives them a small mathematical advantage…

I’m 100% open to everybody acting on the ranges they feel comfortable attributing to villain. Personally, based on bitter experience, villain’s range doesn’t have anywhere near enough underpairs to make this anything better than a pure flip.