Preflop multiway spot in a live turbo

UTG at what table size?

TBH I think it's pretty close. If calling put you in danger of not making the money, I'd fold, but I feel like it's likely you can still do that even if you call and lose.

But, that said, it depends on UTG, and that leans me a little toward fold. A good, studied player shouldn't be shoving too many marginal hands UTG at this stage. And a weak live player usually doesn't shove UTG without the goods. But all of that kinda depends on a few factors-- what kind of player UTG is, what the remaining stacks are, etc. SB has 5.33 BB, and I don't know how many stacks in the field are like that. UTG will shove wider if they're 18/19 than if they're 14/19.

I do think it's close, but live I probably fold, since live at these stakes I find that, unless they've demonstrated it, people don't fully understand their ranges or how to adjust their play for ICM, and when they do, it's usually tightening up around the exact money bubble. So I wouldn't expect to see a lot of the suited-Broadway type hands you might see from a good player. You might still be flipping, but whether I'd want to take that would depend on table dynamics. Are you one of the bigger stacks at the table and can you steal blinds? If calling puts yourself at risk of that, then I would fold.

It's close, and there are a lot of factors that would go into my decision that aren't in your post.

I dont have any more info, unfortunately. The hand was posted in a Dallas poker FB group and argued it was close and probably a call. Others thought it was an obvious fold.

I dont have access to a multiway solver so I was hoping someone could help out.

I appreciate your reply. Thanks

I dont think 77 performs well multi way vs 2 players who are supposed to have tighter ranges.

Stack sizes being equal I think it's a clear fold. The short stack complicates it for me.

Not a solver, but giving UTG a range from 77 upwards and SB ‘having a punt’ with 33% of hands we’re about 32%

I think for me that makes it a fold

Thanks for running that. Curious to see what a solver says, but thats helpful. Thanks again

It is indeed close. Personally I think it is close fold.

You didn't really include all the info you would need to run an accurate sim. Average stack size is important, as is how the stacks are distributed. Also since it's a multi-flight the actual number of player remaining matters.

Anyway I ran a quick sim that is a rough approximation. I used a standard 90 man tournament pay out structure where 13 are paid (didn't want to have to create a structure from scratch). I set it up with 16 players remaining.

So in this sim you are still 3 off the money and the stack sizes of the 3 players you gave are accurate. That said you have more incentive to play for first in this sim as you're closer to the money up top than you are in a multi-flight. That and obviously the other stacks remaining aren't accurate and it's 16 remaining with 13 paid instead of 19 remaining with 16 paid.

Anyway here is the BB calling range according to the ICM solve. Oddly it has 7s performing better than 8s and tens, which I'm assuming is some sort of weird blocker effect.

Nath keyed in on the key stat, which is the UTG raising range. Here's what they're supposed to be shoving. So if the UTG player shoves tighter than this it's almost certainly a fold. If they shove this range or looser it might be a call.

Thanks for that analysis. I really appreciate it.