Tough Day 2 Decision with TPGK

Happily calling. What else could you hope for with a short stack? TP with second best kicker heads up at this depth you can’t fold. I guess with some insane reads vs OMC types you could, but vs those players I hope you would have folded pre.

With an absent BB and the only info on the opener being aggro, I also wouldn’t mind jamming pre flop.

All of what Ralphy said, plus I wouldn’t rule out worse Jx. KJ, QJ, even J9s for value. He has all Axdd combos and some lower flush draws where he doesn’t have an over card out to your pair.

Sometimes you have to die.

Hey Life,

Was that the $400 Escalator at Hard Rock by any chance? If so, I was also there on day 2. Started as one of the shorter stacks and then ran like a god. (Best hand was calling 67hh from SB against HJ open and flopping 345 with two hearts and he kept blasting off on me with each of us at around 40 bbs). Anyhow, finish was disappointing though, as I lost two big flips -- I had PP vs. overs both times.

But back to your hand ... I agree with Ralphy that at 15 bbs, this is an insta call. In fact, if you are going to fold any top pair hands at 15 bbs, you should not call pf. That is a viable strategy.

Hey Bubblebust, yes, it was. I didn't know you played down here.

I can't be too unhappy with the finish as I was mostly under 10 BBs starting late day 1 fwd.

Thought this hand was closer considering the overbet size but I guess it's not. So now I'm kinda bummed.

Flopping Jxx is about as good as you can expect when you flat pre with KJo and 15bb. So this is an insta-call for me.

My guess is you were a bit trigger-shy because this is the deepest run you've had in a while and didn't want to see the opportunity disappear. But if you step back and look at it objectively, it's a pretty easy decision.

I would agree with this. I'd also had 5 BBs only about one level earlier so I really wanted to keep playing with a stack that was the biggest I'd had in a while.

Anyhow, thanks for the responses. Might potentially have been a very costly mistake but at least I've learned the hard way going forward.

Btw, I asked the opponent about 5 minutes later and he said he had AK.

For me its an easy call. We called pre-flop with KJo because Villain opens wide.

Villain's jam of 150% pot is not an overbet. I assume effective stack size before the hand was 15 bb's. With 7 bb's in the pot already my standard bet sizing for this type of flop would be about 4 or 5 bb's. Given that it would be over 30% effective stack (which is now 12.5 bb's) it would always be a jam (for me).

The other thing that is very important in this situation is Villain's preflop stack size. If he has less than twice your stack size then I would be wary of the jam because it is a risky bluff. Otherwise it is a standard way of winning.

There are a ton of hands Villain could be bluffing with other than AK/AQ/KQ. Hands like K9/Q9/Q8/98/87/97 many of which would be suited but for a wild player maybe not suited a lot of the time. Also jamming with a flush draw would be standard especially with an overcard.

So this has to be an insta call. Also, I would trust your gut read here. When I have any intellectual doubts I go with my gut. I'm not always right but a lot of the time I am right and it becomes obvious after the hand is over (whichever way it goes) why I had my read.

When the flop is JTx or T9x with 2 of one suit and we have top pair I am always betting big. There are so many bad cards to come on the turn that will kill the action (or give Villain a chance to win when they would have folded to a large bet). So in this hand my plan would be either to jam the flop (Stop 'N Go style) or to c/r all in. When Villain jams its just a thank you moment. If he has AJ/QQ+ then it is a cooler. If he has QJ/AT/KT/QT/J9/T9/etc. its a we made a great preflop call. If he is semi-bluffing (which I would guess is over 50% of the time) we made the right choice and if we lose then so be it.

I would also note that your call pre-flop has an interesting range. It will be a lot of PP's less than the board. It will not be hands like AK/AQ/AJ/TT+ and even KQ because you would have 3-bet jammed pre-flop. So if Villain has J or T he is virtually always going to cbet. And if he is any good it will be a cbet jam. Similalry I think he will always be semi-bluff jamming here and rarely checking back on the flop.

Like the KK hand from a few days ago, this is why I like to use SPR as a rough guide for when to commit. With an SPR of less than 3, I'm just going with any strong top pair or overpair. (And if I'm doing the math right, yours is less than 2.)

This flop is exactly what you hoped for, and it's pretty draw heavy which gives him a lot of hands he'd rather just shove than bet/call.

Gut instincts tend to be better than overthinking, and definitely better than making moves out of fear.

Don't overthink it. You have 12.5BB with 7BB in the pot and a strong TP2K. He'd have to turn over AJ+ face up for me to fold here.

I appreciate everyone's responses. I've improved a lot thanks to this forum and feel way closer to a big field FT than I was prior to starting to post here.

The SPR guideline is pretty good.

I think 3=Top pair good kicker makes a lot of sense, however, I think it might be too high for heavy ICM spots.

One way to think about that is this:

At SPR 3, we need 3/7=42% equity to commit to a pot. This doesn't count risk premium, which can be quite substantial.

At SPR=2 we need 40%, at SPR=1 we need 33%.

If the risk premium is 10%, then an SPR=1 plays like an SPR =3 spot.

What does this mean? In most spots, an SPR of 1 means any pair is good; however if we add 10% Risk Premium, it will play more like an SPR=3 spot.

This adjustment breaks down at SPR=3; a risk premium of 10% means we'd need more than 50% equity, which blows up the SPR model.

All that being said, I think this spot of SPR=1.5 where we need 37.5% plus say 5% (we aren't in a heavy SPR spot) gets us back to SPR=3; Which means top pair is good

I think this is a pretty clear call.

I would probably be reshoving this preflop, if you believe MP is opening wide. You have some FE (Ax, maybe KQ, etc.), there are a lot of hands that you will be a slight underdog against and many hands that you will be flipping against.

If you just call preflop, I think this is as good a flop as you can hope for. I think you are overvaluing the little information that you have.

I should probably have clarified in the original post that he is aggressive/bluffy postflop. Seems pretty standard preflop.

Then it's a slam dunk call on this flop. I would expect to consider even making this fold that the player is a huge nit that always has it. Like if you told me they were 75 and drink hot water with lemon, then we can fold this.

It’s almost a jam pre - KJs probably is, KQo probably is.

Definitely a call now.