Deepstack tournament question

Not sure why you would bet the river. You're going for pretty thin value there looking for a call from QQ/JJ but you lose to AA and will get raised by the flush. So river is a check/call (or check/fold, depending on how large he bets).

I don't know what the solvers say with such deep stacks, but opening A4s utg is probably fine because of the nut potential.

Thanks!

Agreed river bet is definitely not a good idea.

But should I have played it differently on the previous streets? I.e. charge draws more on flop or turn? To get a fold / charge them more when it doesn't hit?

I don't think the river bet is bad especially because you have the K♠. But if I bet the river 1/3 pot and got raised I think I always fold. Its either a bet/fold or check/call situation for me.

Given Villain raised UTG and you 3 bet pre-flop in the SB to basically close to 4x his bet you are basically claiming to have a very strong hand. It can be AQ+/TT+ more or less. So if Villain has a PP they will be calling hoping you have AK/AQ (probably not even all AQ combos). Otherwise Villain will be folding most hands on the flop except for hands like A2s/A3s/A4s/A5s. Most of which lose in this runout.

So Villain could have hit a set (6 to 9 combos). Or Villain could have A2s (2 combos) or Villain could have a gutter with a back door flush (like 3 combos). I do think that if Villain had hit a set on the flop or turn or had A2s there would have been a raise some of the time (because you will likely be calling with AA/KK/QQ type hands).

If I bet the river I am hoping Villain has hands like 99/TT/JJ even 66/55. So between 18 and 30 combos. Given that Villain has about 11 to 14 combos that are ahead its a close situation to triple barrel. I like the river bet size but I would be folding to a raise.

Bunch of thoughts:

I think your pf size is fine in the KK hand. I might have gone a smidge bigger (10 bbs). But probably miniscule difference.

With a 200 bb eff stack, A4 suited is an easy call for V pf -- or a 4-bet bluff candidate. But I prefer to call and make a huge pot. (Like what was done).

Also realize that when you are playing that deep, Vs range will have a lot more low cards in it. So A2s could be in that range. (You might even see a K2s from players on the looser side).

When you are playing that deep, be wary with your over pairs. Very hard to get 3 streets of value and still be good.

I think I bet larger on the turn -- maybe 2/3 pot. We want to really apply pressure on V's smaller flush draws. (V is almost certainly still calling with his exact holding -- maybe even raising). I do this even at the expense of chasing out some over pairs to the board who we would like to extract value from when playing so deep.

I definitely check call river. (Might even fold river to very big sizing -- this is either me being exploited, or me doing the exploiting).

Ks is only a marginal blocker here; as V's suited range is quite big as deep as you are and as small as your bet was on the turn.

88, 77, 33, and 22 are also in V's value range.

I fold as played on river, unless you have a read that V is a sicko. Population is under bluffing this spot by a giant margin.

Would size larger pre given stack depths - would size the flop and all other streets larger. The river is a bet as well - there's really not that many spade combos that he can have here. I think you just missed a lot of value here along the way - when he raises the river there's really not any natural bluffs he can have and depending what the buy in is 99.9% of players won't try to turn like 66 into a bluff here. Sucks you ran into a flush but would definitely bet/fold.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I really like check calling the river. Gives V the chance to bluff his busted straight draws (think A4/A5 hh), and even think he is making a value bet with TT/JJ type hands that might not call a big river bet.

Maybe you lose some value when V checks back a pocket pair -- but no guarantee he'd call.

I agree that very few players are bluffing the river so you can safely b/f. But I also think similarly very few players are making an oversized river bet as a bluff here.

Please don’t post outcomes

3bet size feels fine.
Checking river invites a bluff which you can choose to call dependent on size and reads.

Bet folding river is an option that isn’t always appreciated .

I have a few thoughts. I think you want to be raising larger because being OOP deepstack with KK kind of sucks here. You want to lower the stack to pot ratio.

Flop: Fine, I like your small bet

Turn: I like to spilt it between betting something like your size and betting 2/3 pot.

River: Good bet. A lot of people that are saying you should fold to a raise, are being results oriented. I think if you bet 2/3 pot you might fold to a raise, but because you bet so small, there is a good chance that you might induce a raise. Now, I guess the question is, 3.5x the bet. Do we think this player is going to make a bet so large a bluff, when a bet of 2.5x or 3x would probably do the trick? Maybe.

I have been playing with smaller river bet sizings in Omaha a lot (1/3), and players often take the bait and will raise with a bluff or something weak, because it's always perceived as the bettor being weak.

Think you should bet bigger OTT. A good part of his range should consist of 88-QQ, all of whom should feel inclined to call because of the very low board. On the other hand AJ-AK that are not suited in spades that might call flop will probably fold even a to a small bet on the turn. So it's not much point in betting this small in the hope of getting in more of their chips.

River is an odd situation. The third spade is a bad card for you, even in the sense that it probably will make many opponents fold their overpairs to the board that otherwise might have called. I agree with the others a bluff is not very likely here, especially if it's a lower BI. So bet/fold is better. If you had bet bigger OTT check/call might have been a better option.

thank you everyone!

I will not spoil the outcome next time :-)

BI was 150$, a large field GG masters (28k people...)

Don't love the idea of sizing up and building a massive pot 200bb deep effective with a single pair hand. You want to keep the pot smaller with this kind of hand this deep, not make it larger.