$750 Parx Day 2 Turn spot
It is Day 2 of the Parx Big Stax $750 tournament. I started the day with 241,500 chips was down to 125,000 and as high as 800,000. We are in the money (116 people cashed out of 1,136 total entries).
I moved to the table about two hours before this hand. Villain is UTG and has played very few hands until this one. He has 355,000 chips and I have about 600,000. There are still about 60 players left and smallish pay raises are happening about every 9 spots. What he has seen is me losing about half my stack with AK when A9s went all in EP, I re-jammed and 9 hit the flop. Then a few hands later with about 325,000 chips I called a raise and call with JTo in the BB and the flop was QJJ. UTG bet flop a guy called and I c/r jammed and UTG tank called with KK.
The blinds are 6000/12000 and Villain raises to 25,000 folds to me OTB and I have KK and make it 75,000 folds to Villain who takes some time and then calls. I had no idea if he was thinking about folding or jamming or both.
Flop is TT2 two clubs and I have the K of clubs. He checks I bet 75,000 and he hesitates again and ends up calling. Again I'm not sure if he is thinking about folding or jamming.
Turn is a 7 but not a club and no second flush draw. He checks and I think about it for a few seconds. I am concerned that if I check back a J/Q/K/A or a club could come and make it impossible to get a river call if I jam the river (or he could hit his 2 outer). I'm pretty sure he has QQ/JJ at this point but ATs is a possibility as is AA and in theory a flush draw. I think he folds hands like AK/AQ/AJ on the flop. Because he has just 205,000 chips left and there are about 330,000 chips already in the pot I decide to jam.
I just wasn't sure if checking back would make it look more like I had AK/AQ and he would likely call a river jam or if a river jam by me would lead him to folding anyway. And in theory I might jam AK on the turn anyway. The other thing I didn't think about was the edge of a 2 or 7 hitting the river where me having AK and jamming would make sense.
What would you have done in this spot?
9 Replies
I’d probably bet flop smaller like 1/4 pot but even then you have like .75 SPR on turn and I think jam turn is best on double flush draw. I think you’re right we just have to fade ATs & TT. I expect this player type to just jam AA pre.
No point in checking back turn imo. He’s called a 3b after opening UTG and now called a flop bet. Let’s get it all now when he has JJ-QQ and maybe he hero calls even worse like 99. He can also call off with a variety of flush draws like AJs, AQs etc. If he’s got Tx he’s doubling off me this hand and that’s just poker folks.
I would just play a [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]] street game here. Not sure why [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]] streets is better…
I agree that we should jam. The problem is, like you said, if an A/Q/J comes that may be an overcard to his pair and get him to fold. Plus going all in may look desperate like you want a fold (where if you bet 40% of your stack, it looks like you badly want a call).
I think the jam is good as a default.
I do think there is some merit in checking back against a specific type of opponent. Basically if that's the way they're more likely to put in the rest of their money then go ahead and check back.
If you were going to take that line I think you would want to bet smaller on the flop, like 1/4 pot or less. Pretty much you're trying to signal that you're weak to induce a flop float/ light call. Then check back turn to induce him to bluff River and/or get it in with weaker value hands. This line has the added bonus of protecting your range when you actually are weak.
But generally speaking I think the aggressive line of betting flop and jamming turn is better.
This is a tough flop. I might check back flop at some frequency bc we only get called by over pairs and 10x. Villian should have some suited 10x combos like 10-9, J-10, Q-10, K-10 and maybe 10-8 but that’s questionable.
I like check flop bc we can just call turn and river and not give them an easy shot to double if they x raise flop bc we aren’t folding to a flop raise.
As played, I’m fine; we can bet turn and maybe check back river bc they aren’t calling worse unless a cooler situation like JJ, QQ, KK but I don’t think Kk or qq are likely. Maybe even bet super small on river to get thin value from pairs such as 99, 88, 77 etc that might float the flop.
I like your sizing pre- I almost wouldn’t mind going say 80-90k also but maybe not. 3x is solid in position. We wanna get stacks in against a 30bb stack here when we have KK. On flop im either betting super small with like whole range when I 3 bet- think like 1/5th to 1/3rd pot: idc if I totally miss im cbetting small. Like if im 3! QJ here im going. For it. I do however like checking also bc it can induce a bluff from villian if they think we have AK AQ AJ or some protection betting on turn from them to protect pocket pairs. I don’t like cbetting bc I feel their continue range is not big and mostly 10-x or over pairs which you will hear from regardless on turn if you x flop.
Basically I’m fine with your line. I think you can cbet this flop or x back to try and induce as only card that really bothers us is Ax. If they have a pair and make a boat- bad luck but trying to get max value and will give them a small shot to hit an unlikely 2 outer.
Also I just realized the SPR was like 2 or under. Idk maybe just bet flop and turn and jam river. The spr is so low- if he has 10x so be it. We aren’t folding here with an overpair. I think jamming turn is worse than just betting like small on turn and just jamming river. We can jam turn making it look like we want a fold with AK or AQ though. Try to set up a pot sized turn shove it that is route you wanna go.
This is a tough flop. I might check back flop at some frequency bc we only get called by over pairs and 10x. Villian should have some suited 10x combos like 10-9, J-10, Q-10, K-10 and maybe 10-8 but that's questionable.
I agree with checking flop in a SRP but this is a 3bet pot vs an UTG opener. Ranges much tighter (value heavy) and SPR is smaller. We gotta try to stack him here if he has anything (besides Tx obv).
This is the kind of spot where we want to decide how many streets we want to take to get the money in. We just can't be worried about Tx or slow played AA; if he has those he is stacking us.
My instincts on this fairly dry board are to go with 3 streets. Yes, an Ace can kill our or action, as can a club. Having the Kc does block a few combos (and gives a redraw vs QJc).
Once we decide that, we should use Geometric Growth of the pot for our bet sizes. If we want to go 3 streets, it is about 30% of pot across all streets.
If we want to play a 2 street game, about 1/2 pot works (if my math is wrong I am still on my first coffee).
Hero's flop size was right between the 2; that is why we have a little awkward (but fine) stack size on the turn.
As played, I'd jam turn.
FWIW, I know I tend to play a two street game when 3 might be better; also I jam flops more than I should.
Why do we (I) do that? Well, it makes it easier to play. Cutting off a street means fewer worries about scare cards, donks from opponents, etc. Once we get our chips in, we are done.
Doing this math and executing over the table can be a little hard; but that is why we can improve by studying these spots away from the table.
Not sure how many worse hands call a jam on the turn, nor whether there are any better hands that fold.
Having said that, this is probably the time to get our stack in with what is almost certainly the best hand the times when I have A10 here as villain you may have to call clock on me to prise a call on that flop…
Lots of river cards scare us, or scare V, neither of which is helpful.
