Playing pocket sevens with middling stacks in a 3bet pot vs two players

My notes, not necessarily accurate but I'm a winning player.

a) Fold pre mainly due to action not being closed and the risk of a back-raise from the other caller.

Also you're going to under realize equity OOP. Like if flop comes Q63ss that's a pretty good flop for your hand. But if you check to raiser, they c-bet and action is on you what do you do with another player still behind?

b) Check-raise flop to get it in is probably best play. You don't want to give random over cards a chance to draw out on you. Even if you're up against AA you have six outs to a straight or set.

c) Donk jam makes 0 sense. We're in an ICM-heavy spot where the other players are incentivised to play tighter and make big folds. This board is horrible for our range. Exactly 77 (which probably shouldn't even be in our range) is our only nutted hand). Check turn, then if it checks through you can lead small on the river.

I know it worked out this time when an opponent called but 56s shouldn't even be in their range. Turn donk jam is the worst mistake of the hand.

Thanks for the answers.

a) I'm split on this, I think either calling or folding is fine - but I would prefer to be significantly deeper stacked to call.

b) Yes, I lean towards check-raising flop too. Pocket sevens need a lot of protection against overcards. If we call then half of our stack is in the pot and we are committed, so may as well check-raise flop and fold out those overcards and other bluffs. There is obviously the danger of running into overpairs too. So - the other option is to give the BTN the credit of perhaps not cbetting that large a percentage of his overcards into two players, and therefore simply folding the flop as we likely only have six outs to win and there are two players to beat.

c) I don't like donk jamming turn either, and I think the issue is the stack size behind. Hero doesn't have enough stack to check-raise effectively and have fold equity with any semi-bluffs or total bluffs, and I think this is as a result of not check-jamming the flop if he intends to stay in the hand. So what's hero to do? He can just check-jam turn, but the jam will be for a very small amount more for the others to call. So it's simply a case of checking his entire range and getting it in if anyone bets I guess or, if it checks through, leading small on pretty much all rivers. I agree that hero is at the absolute top of his range, and the next strongest hands are overpairs perhaps 88-JJ, with almost nothing in between. He has some flush draws too after check-calling flop, and they have equity, but the dynamic for his showdown hands are simply pocket sevens for the straight and then overpairs. If he is going to donk turn for value with 77, how does he balance it? I guess with some flush draws that turned a combo draw? Pretty much only A8s and 98s comes to mind, and it's debatable how often he calls those vs a 3bet. So it's a tricky spot for sure, especially given the stack sizes in play.

Note that ICM is not that much of a factor, as only 3 places are paid.

I agree with GreatWhite.

My only addition is that a flop x/r really depends on the dynamic and player reads. BTN's line is actually pretty strong here: squeezes small against an EP open off 30bb and then continues on the flop multiway. Absent a read that tells me otherwise, I think you're going to run into big pairs far more often than AK/AQ and be drawing almost dead when you x/r.

Sure, I agree with what you're saying. So the question then becomes - if hero check-calls the flop, how should he play the turn? If donking is clearly wrong (as most seem to think) then surely check-jamming for a small amount is best if herop checks turn and faces a bet. Or, if the turn checks through and the river is a blank - jam with a polarized range?

You don’t mention where we are in terms of payouts.
ITM? At what value and when is next pay jump?

Although, tbh, 77 is probably a fold 2/3 of the time.
Calling flop is optimistic, but the turn is a delight.
Unlucky river card.

The fact that LoJack was still in the pot with 56 at this stage explains why there is still money to be made in live poker. It also explains why GTO might be less effective in some games than it is in others. How do we establish ranges?

Yes I should have clarified that ICM is not even a factor here - only 3 places were paid.

I agree preflop should be a fold most of the time.

Yes the Lojack played loose this hand. Game theory is of course effective in all games, but exploitative play makes more. Once we have observed Lojack or others consistently playing loose, we can start to make adjustments and deviate from what is GTO in order to make more money/chips. However, I don't think those considerations are that relevant to the play in this hand specifically.

I beg to differ. But this is not the place.

That's why it's a fold to the 3b preflop 😉

In which games is game theory not effective?

Regardless of the range of hands with which hero defends the 3bet, there are always going to be marginal spots such as the situation in this hand, and learning how to navigate them is an important skill.

Yeah, I think this is good, other than the ICM part (which we just didn't know how small the field was). We're not deep enough to set mine, and trying to win otherwise comes with the problems you laid out. I'll also add that I imagine whatever this tournament is isn't going to have a lot of light 3-bets.

Games where we go multi-way vs AA & 56

I’m with Katchalov on this, exploitative is the way in the vast majority of tournaments where our opponents can’t even spell GTO.

I think you guys are talking past each other. GTO is by definition not exploitable so will always be "effective" in that sense. (Assuming we are can effectively solve these multiway spots). But I don't see anyone arguing that GTO is best way to play in tournaments like this or even "the vast majority of tournaments".

Pokerpops is correct that almost no one is playing GTO, so exploitive play is going to be far superior in tournament play (maybe with some limited field elite events as an exception). I don't think Telemakus is disagreeing.

Agree. Funnily enough the most recent edition of The Chip Race has this debate and makes the point that if we don’t have at least some GTO knowledge we can’t deviate from it in the most profitable way.

Preflop I would make it like 2.1x (JKPoker will let you know that 2x is best)

Once it gets raised to 7x its a tough spot. Hero isn't getting the right price to set mine because he started with only 30 bb's. And the raise should have been about 10x so Villain likely has KK+ and wants to suck you in. I likely fold but I might call because LJ will also call and if we hit a set and they both call when we are all in, it is worth it.

I'm not a fan of c/r all in on the flop. I think Villain has an overpair the way this has played out and will always call. I think we are getting the right price for a call.

Jamming the turn is good from my standpoint because it can look like a bluff. Also LJ can have a flush draw or 66 and may call getting the right price. Even Villain can have a big flush draw though there aren't that many of them. If a club or diamond hits on the river I doubt anyone would call a bet and I would likely check call anyway. It turned out to be a great play that failed because LJ hit their 15% shot (and on the bright side it wasn't a 6 or 5).

Game theory is of course extremely effective in loose games. And nb I'm talking about game theory that adjusts to loose play, not baseline "GTO". As others have indicated, one cannot adjust effectively and exploit without a solid understanding of game theory in any case.