ICM / ITM question
Hi all,
I wanted to ask some ICM / survival advice. I know the general advice is try to get a big stack, try to go deep bc that's where the pay outs are exponential, but assume that min cash is important, for whatever reason that might be.
Scenario: Close to ITM, one of the last tenth of the pack (5-8bb let's say), but going to be ITM if folding all hands. So I would take this as a starting point. What hands would one jam (again, assuming ITM is super important). AA, KK?
As another reference, I was in a similar situation a week ago, was 93 out of 106 with 100 paying, was probably going to get paid if I just folded, had 6bb in the SB, UTG+1 opens to 2bb (he has like 14bb, which is a bit under average stack) and I have AKs. I thought this is not something to pass up, so I jammed, he called and held with 88.
So AK is not crushing anything except Ax. It is a slight dog against a pair, a huge underdog against AA, KK, and like 62% against two random cards. The risk is definitely not worth it, if cashing is very relevant. So I would eliminate AK from the jamming range and also by extension any Ax.
I also can say that RFI is very different than calling, so perhaps the discussion can be split in what hands to jam RFI and what hands to call a jam or an open which effectively forces you to jam or fold.
Appreciate any input 😀
2 Replies
When you are guaranteed a min payout but considering playing for more, here are some things to think about:
1. Size of the min cash. Can range from 1x (a bounty tournament) to as high as 3x. Obviously the bigger the min cash the tighter you need to play.
2. Size of the field. In a very large field, say 10000 runners, the min cash is far more important, since the pay jumps after the min cash tend to be close to, or actually zero.
3. Size of the average stack. If the average stack is, say 50BBs and you have a micro stack, doubling won't give you that much equity. If the average is 15BB, it's a lot easier to find spots where your equity will go up a lot.
4. Size of your stack. The shorter you are the tighter you play. This is related to the above point. Where you get to when you are doubling matters.
5. Position. Of course the later you are the better off you are jamming, as you have fewer people to get through. But, if you are in good position, it is longer till you have to pay the blinds. (notice in the AKs handed, you have just paid the blinds, so will get many free hands)
6. Fold Equity. Will your jam put a dent in your opponents stack? Are the opponents looking to min cash as well?
Taking these all together, you can construct spots where it is (easily!) right to fold AA.
Say you are in the ME, where the field is huge, the stacks are deep, and being on the stone bubble means that you are likely to make it through. Once you cash, there are no pay jumps for a long time. So, if you are on the stone bubble, have 4BB and are assured of cashing, doubling won't get you a meaningfully larger stack. In these spots, once you have determined you are folding AA, don't even look at your cards (but pretend to look). AA are like a siren song; you need to tie yourself to the mast to avoid temptation.
Wow, thank you for the very constructive and insightful reply!
It is indeed a super large field tournament (over 30k people, 4.500 make the money). Pay out is 1.5x the BI and next pay jump is at 3.000 players, so super far away, and also only a bit higher, maybe 2x BI.
So if you are hoovering at position 4.400 with 4.600 left and 4.500 in the money, it is actually correct to fold everything... even AA!
I made out by myself that AK is a fold, but thought AA KK is jam, while i would have not been surprised if people call me a nit and say QQ is also a shove.
Cheers!
