3rd time a charm? $1,500 Parx Big Stax Day 2
There are now 33 players on day 2 left out of 542. First prize is like $150,000 and we are at about $4,570 for a few places. It doesn't go over $10,000 until about 9th place.
Starting stacks were 50,000 on day 1. The average stack right now is 821,000 chips. I have about 650,000 chips. I have been near average for a while on Day 2. Never much above and never too much below.
I have not been all in myself yet in the tournament (if I remember correctly). But I have been lucky against a couple of all in players. Once on Day 1 when I raised UTG to like 3500, folds to BB who makes it 15,000 and I jam with 58,000 he tank calls with 99 and flops a set but I flopped a flush draw which I hit on the turn. Day 2 there were a few though. The first big one was a guy raised UTG then a guy went all in for 170,000 chips UTG+1 and I looked down at AA. I asked for a count and called and UTG called also with AA and only about 100,000 chips. We were against QQ and held (he had about 20% chance of winning). Then I had about 400,000 chips when I raised with AKo to 18,000 and a guy jammed for 154,000. I called and won against QQ. I also called a 6 blind all in with K4o in the BB and he had K6s but a 4 came on the turn and I won that one. Then a guy min raised with 10 bb's and I called in the BB with 98o. Flop was T98 I checked he bet 2 bb's again and I c/r'd all in and he called with QQ and I held (I would have folded if he had jammed preflop).
Then this happened. Guy limps in UTG for 15,000. I look down at AA and raise to 50,000 (I would have raised more if I had a bit more than 43 blinds). Folds to UTG who calls. UTG has about 800,000 chips.
Villain came to the table with about 1,500,000 chips but lost a few hands including one against me where Villain limped somebody else limped then I raised to 25,000, BTN called and the limpers called (so about 112,000 in the pot). Flop was A42r and Villain led out for 20,000 folded to me and I called and folded so HU. Turn was a 4. Villain bet 20,000 again and I called. River was a 2 Villain bet 20,000 again and I called and he had 55.
So in the current hand the flop is J87 two clubs (the J was not a club) and Villain leads out for 70,000 chips into a pot that is 140,000 chips. I decide to just call to see how Villain approaches the turn. He can have T9s or Jx or possibly a set.
Turn is 3 not a club and not another flush draw. Villain checks. I reach down to bet about 200,000 into the 280,000 chip pot and realize I would only have about 330,000 left. So I jam.
In fairness to reality I have done this twice before in biggish tournaments and lost both times. The first was a $600 Venetian where I had AA and was HU on a T875 board that had two hearts and I jammed the turn for a pot sized bet and got called by K9s and he hit a straight and knocked me out. The other one I wrote about here when I c/r jammed on the turn with AA in a Venetian $1,600 tournament first hand, on a 6328 board vs two players where the guy with an overpair folded and the guy with 64o called (he was getting the right price to call if I remember correctly) and hit a 4 on the river and knocked me out.
So I was thinking 3rd time is a charm. My take on Villain was that he did not have a set or two pair or a straight or he would have bet the turn. I thought he had a J and possibly JT/J9 and/or some kind of flush draw with a J. Or he could have had a flush draw and a gutter without a pair like QXs/KXs/AXs type hands. I did not have the A of clubs. Because my bet was close to 2x pot I thought he would fold. Though my bet could look like a bluff and he might call especially with a hand like JTs clubs (which is the only hand I am ahead of that is getting close to the right price to call).
In the moment I could have bet 1/4 pot (like 70,000 chips) or even half pot for 140,000. And then in position could fold if he leads out on the river. And I might not know if he actually hit his hand or was bluffing. Or check behind if a club or a K/Q/J/T/9/8/7 hit. But that is most of the deck... I preferred to take it down now or have like a 70% chance to double up.
10 Replies
Why do you think you can't bet less than all in? FWIW, a quick solve showed we almost never jam here. We also don't bet 2/3 too often either, about 1% of the time.
I think the bigger disconnect comes from the notion that we can't put 1/3 of our stack in then fold. While that is a decent rule for preflop, it is not a good rule post flop. We will 'always' have 33% in preflop spots when get jammed on, assuming we have any kind of real hand.
This is not the case post flop. If you bet a reasonable size here, say 1/2 pot, you are NOT pot committed, since most Villain's jams will leave you with far less than 33% equity.
If it was me, I'd be thrilled to bet 1/2 pot. I can fold to a jam. I can get value from Jx or TT/99 or other pair plus straight draws.
If I bet/fold the best hand some of the time, that is ok, because I think AA is in bad enough shape (especially against a limper) that I can fold easily.
That last sentence is telling...when you jam, you expect to get a lot of folds...why do you think you will be 70% to double up when called?
Why do you think you can't bet less than all in? FWIW, a quick solve showed we almost never jam here. We also don't bet 2/3 too often either, about 1% of the time.
I think the bigger disconnect comes from the notion that we can't put 1/3 of our stack in then fold. While that is a decent rule for preflop, it is not a good rule post flop. We will 'always' have 33% in preflop spots when get jammed on, assuming we have any kind of real hand.
This is not the case post flop. If you bet a reasonable
I was 100% sure i was ahead. Why would a guy who was ahead bet 50% pot on the flop and check back a turn that improves no hands? This is the same guy who bet small repeatedly on a hand that he wanted to see the next card to possibly complete a gutter in a situation where he was fairly certain he was behind.
At the time I wanted to bet about 67% pot. I pulled out 200,000 chips and realized I would be pot committed betting that amount. If a club came on the river and he jammed I would be wanting to fold but it would be a 300,000 chip bet into a 680,000 chip pot and it could be a bluff. Similarly if a J/8/7 came on the river. Or even a K or Q. Its possible that I could guess that he hit his hand if he bet and missed if he checked. But I didn't know him well enough post flop to know if he ever bluffed.
I agree with the if I bet 1/2 Pot (140,000 chips) on the turn that I am not pot committed and being in position I can check it back if I don't like the card and he checks. I just didn't think I had much FE with that bet sizing. I also didn't really consider it at the time because I wanted to bet roughly 67% which would have been over 40% effective stack.
The other reason I jammed was that I felt like he might be a gambler and call with a hand where I was a 70% favorite. I thought if he does that and I win I would have like 1,300,000 chips and be way above average. And I wanted to get to the final table.
You were 100% sure ahead, but you wanted fold equity? I don't understand that.
What you really want when you are ahead is to get value from your opponents second place hands and draws.
You were 100% sure ahead, but you wanted fold equity? I don't understand that.
What you really want when you are ahead is to get value from your opponents second place hands and draws.
What you are saying is true. I could have bet 140,000 and been called by Jx hands and hands with draws. And most of the time I would win that much more than my jam was likely to win.
My issue in the moment was I wanted to bet more than half the pot because I didn't want to see about 67% of the cards in the deck. So in my mind about two thirds of the time I wasn't going to bet the river and some of that time I was going to face a river donk, that I would likely fold to (or call and lose to if it was for like 140,000 chips).
I was happy to take down the pot if he folded which I believed would be the right play most of the time. I was also OK with being called by a worse hand because I figured I would double up to 1,3000,000 chips about 70% of the time on average.
What you are saying is true. I could have bet 140,000 and been called by Jx hands and hands with draws. And most of the time I would win that much more than my jam was likely to win.
My issue in the moment was I wanted to bet more than half the pot because I didn't want to see about 67% of the cards in the deck. So in my mind about two thirds of the time I wasn't going to bet the river and some of that time I was going to face a river donk, that I would likely fold to (or call and lose to if i
There may be 67% of the cards you don't want to see, but...
Villain won't want to see some of those as well, and may not bluff the cards that are misses, when he is playing out of flow.
Plus, for the blanks in the deck, you may still get the value you seek when he has Jx/TT/99.
You were there, and you know your Villain, but from an outsiders perspective, a jam just folds out everything you beat, and gets called by everything you are behind.
I am often skeptical of that last expression, but here I think it is literally true (assuming V never has KK or QQ which would call a jam, I guess.)
There may be 67% of the cards you don't want to see, but...
Villain won't want to see some of those as well, and may not bluff the cards that are misses, when he is playing out of flow.
Plus, for the blanks in the deck, you may still get the value you seek when he has Jx/TT/99.
You were there, and you know your Villain, but from an outsiders perspective, a jam just folds out everything you beat, and gets called by everything you are behind.
I am often skeptical of that last expression, but here I th
And yet all 3 times I was called with worse hands. The first one at the venetian $600 the guy was getting basically the exact right price to call. Especially because he might have thought his K would win if it paired (I could have had QQ/JJ/AT). The second one was at the Venetian $1,600 and the guy was getting a good price to call (it was +EV for him) even though he had less than 25% chance to win. But this one was crazy at Parx. He had QJs clubs and he was not getting anywhere near the right price to call.
I think that in these moments which are rare, the guys I have jammed against are gamblers. For whatever reason they are thinking that I could be bluffing and they have more outs to win. In this case the guy tanked and called because in theory I didn't have to have AA (or KK) and he blocked QQ/JJ. I could have had a bigger flush draw (like AKs/ATs/A9s). I could have hands like TT/99 and wanted to get him to fold.
And yet all 3 times I was called with worse hands. The first one at the venetian $600 the guy was getting basically the exact right price to call. Especially because he might have thought his K would win if it paired (I could have had QQ/JJ/AT). The second one was at the Venetian $1,600 and the guy was getting a good price to call (it was +EV for him) even though he had less than 25% chance to win. But this one was crazy at Parx. He had QJs clubs and he was not getting anywhere near the rig
Jamming and getting them to call when they have the right price to call can't be called 'a win'. Yes, you pushed equity against their exact hands, but they were still correct to call.
Even on the hand with QJs, while he wasn't getting the right price vs your hand, it wasn't THAT far off. If you have any bluffs, where he is actually ahead, then the call is quite fine.
On your Venetian hand, it sounds like you have a very small SPR going to the turn if Villain could call off for such a small percentage and still be right to do so.
Jamming and getting them to call when they have the right price to call can't be called 'a win'. Yes, you pushed equity against their exact hands, but they were still correct to call.
Its not that its a win, its that I have a 70% chance of winning basically. The fact that it is slightly +EV for them isn't the issue. It is massively +EV for me if they call.
In theory when called in all 3 scenarios, I should have won all 3 of these all-ins about 33% of the time. I should have won 2 of them about 50% of the time. I should have won one of them about 15% of the time. And yes I lost all 3 of them in that 2.7% of the time window. Still I'm glad I did it. Because I got called each time.
Even on the hand with QJs, while he wasn't getting the right price vs your hand, it wasn't THAT far off. If you have any bluffs, where he is actually ahead, then the call is quite fine.
He had about a 68% chance of having less than 15 blinds. His call would have been good only if he had been ahead. Which he wasn't. But I am actually glad that he thought I could be bluffing.
On your Venetian hand, it sounds like you have a very small SPR going to the turn if Villain could call off for such a small percentage and still be right to do so.
In the $600 Venetian my turn c/r all in for 32,000 chips gave the SB a chance to call 20,000 to win 80,000 chips with 10 outs. He had a 22% chance to win and needed 20% chance to win to break even. I on the other hand had a 78% chance to more than double up. And if SB had folded (after UTG folded) I would actually have doubled up without having to see a river. Had I just called on the turn I would have been able to get away from the hand and have 20,000 chips left given the board would have been 63284. But I doubt there would have been a river bet by anyone.
This particular hand at the $1,500 Parx Big Stax I could have made more if I had bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot on the turn (if Villain had correctly folded). And I certainly would have lost less because he called. But I doubt I would have gone far with less than 25 blinds anyway at about 1/3 average stack. And in theory I probably would have called his likely smallish 1/4 pot (140,000) donk bet on the river after hitting his flush.
The thing is that I don't mind going for it when the odds are in my favor. Yes it is unbelievably painful (even now) when I get sucked out on. But I'd rather do that than have to make a smaller bet or not raise when that is not what I originally wanted to do. When I look at tournaments that I have won its because I win all of the 70%+ situations when I am all in and/or its a huge pot. And I also do well in the big pot flips.
Mr Rick, you think it is correct to fold top pair with a flush on turn? Seems crazy to me...
Mr Rick, you think it is correct to fold top pair with a flush on turn? Seems crazy to me...
I assume you mean with a flush draw.
I don't know the answer to that. I 3-bet him preflop after he limped in. He didn't really know me (he arrived at the table about an hour prior to this hand) so in theory I could have hands like 88+/AJ+ and possibly even KQ. I could also have SC's.
His flop donk bet was exactly half pot at 140,000 chips. I could have called that with a flush draw, a gutter (with like TT/99) or a very strong hand like JJ+. In theory I could have called with AK/AQ/KQ because he had donked before with me with a very small PP. But I hadn't 3-bet before. And here his donk bet was half pot not 20% pot.
So you could be right that he should call my jam because I could have a worse pair or a flush draw or I could be outright bluffing with AK/AQ (assuming he doesn't know me at all). I probably would have folded because I would assume I was behind (I don't think this is an overbluff spot) and I would be blocking a lot of potential flush draws. I also would never jam here with TT or 99 because I would be happy to take a free river with what could be a 5 or 6 outer.
Had he led out the turn like he did in the past hand for the same amount my jam would have been an easy call for him because he would then be getting the right price if he was behind and if he was ahead it would be even better. But he didn't lead out the turn because he suspected that like before, I had him beat and was calling his flop bet because I had a big hand and I didn't want to give it away.
If I had jammed the flop then his call would be a flip if I had KK+. Which was part of the reason I didn't do that. But here on the turn I guess the question i would ask is if my bet of almost 2x pot is polarizing? I might have called in his spot because there are some combos that are trailing like flush draws with gutters and TT/99. And for sure if I had been bluffing or semi bluffing in a balanced way it would make the call +EV. I doubt I would have gone all in with TT or 99. But he doesn't know that. I might have with hands like ATs/A9s clubs but I think I would have done that on the flop if I was going to over bet so i would have better odds of winning if called. More frequently I would bet the turn and jam the river if I missed my flush draw.
The funny thing is this type of play came to me while watching final tables of big tournaments. Especially in the WSOP. Players who were ahead on the turn were constantly bluffed off hands on the river when the turns were bet by their opponent. These type of hands on the turn typically had two flush draws and lots of straight draws that could be gutters or open ended (or double gutted). I saw people fold winning hands repeatedly. So I thought in these spots with what I think is the winning hand I will make it not about the river but about whether or not whatever the draw is, they want to continue. Now if i am behind then I lose but I would often call a river bet anyway. I get that my Villain here did not bet the turn. But it made me want to make a large value bet. And I couldn't bet what I wanted because it would be worth it for Villain to call and put me in a spot on the river where I would have to call his bet if he hit.
