Missed barrel? Check my thinking

I like the flop size - it keeps most of his range that we are beating in the hand and his x/c suggests he doesn’t have overpairs.
Turn sizing can be geometric at 40% again. It’s early and if we go 75% we could be in a world of pain if he x/r

The big question for me is what do we do on a variety of rivers?
Obviously any of the straight outs makes it simple, but there are a lot of check back cards and some where villain can lead river with a range advantage. Keeping the pot smaller gives us a cheaper bluff catch with our hand which is at the better end of our range given preflop action.

Is the only argument against the large turn barrel the risk of a x/r? I don't see many turn x/raises in my games so I'm not sure that's a big concern.

As you've said, going small puts us in a difficult position on pretty much any river. If I'm not going to bet large on the turn, wouldn't it be better to check turn with the intention of calling river?

I think I check back the turn as played. I'm not sure we are ahead. SB can have a pair like 88/99/TT. Not sure why he wouldn't have bet on the flop though.

I was a little surprised by SB sizing for the 3 bet preflop. I would have expected more like 4500. Especially in a bounty tournament where he has more chips than you.

If SB doesn't have a pair then he will likely fold on the turn if you bet. Unless he has a 6 or 8 or 2 clubs. But I think it is unlikely. Why I prefer checking on the turn is that SB might bluff on the river if we look weak. If SB doesn't have a pair there are only 6 outs that can beat us. And if we bet the turn and he calls with a better hand we may end up losing more on the river if we miss and he donks the river.

I probably call a river bet if we check the turn and miss but I think its much harder if we bet the turn and SB calls and then donks the river.

I think I like betting turn again and then checking back anything other than an 8/6/3.

I'm thinking about sizing, but I dunno. If you think villain would take this line with better overpairs, maybe we don't want to go too big and risk only getting called by better hands. But going bigger also discourages lighter check-raises that could put us in a tough spot. I'm not broken up about overcards check-calling again-- and the only ones you have any serious worry about are the backdoor clubs, which aren't folding to the bigger size anyway.

I mean, yeah, you hate to get check-raised, but you don't think that happens often in these games, and probably less so as a bluff. Maybe split the difference with a solid B50, although this deep I wouldn't mind B75 or so.

I wouldn't say an overpair is impossible, but I would say highly, highly unlikely. This would be a very weird line for villain to take with an overpair.

One aspect of my game that I'm still trying to nail down is when to use overbets on flop/turn vs smaller sizes. I guess the problem with the large turn sizing here is that most of villain's range is going to be hands we beat that we don't really want to fold, and he doesn't have much better value that we can really pressure on this board. So now I'm leaning towards either a small turn barrel to get value from the weak part of his range, or just checking back with the intention to call river.

40% on turn makes a lot of rivers easy. It incentivises V to bluff into a smaller pot whilst still getting value against his hands that are behind at this stage.

It occurs to me that Villain can have A7s/87s/97s/76s type hands which might be why his preflop raise was so small. Even with A8s/98s/T8s type hands Villain would more likely bluff the river if we check the turn than if we bet. Also if Villain has a flush draw and misses he might bluff the river if we check the turn.

I just prefer in these spots to keep the pot smallish in case Villain c/r with an overpair or set. That way it makes it look like we don't have a pair either.

I prefer to bet smaller on the flop in a 3-bet pot, like 1/3 pot. The reason is that your opponent should be pretty polarized between strong over pairs and weak random unpaired over cards. The 1/3 sizing puts the over cards in a tougher spot as he'll have to continue with some weaker BDFD type hands to prevent you from bluffing him. Also you're going to want to stab sometimes with some pretty weak combos without risking too much when you get check raised by something like an overpair. This is somewhat nitpicking and I don't mind your sizing either.

On the turn I think you can go either way with a bet or check. I lean towards checking back with the intention to call most non-straight-completing rivers other than an ace and possibly a club.

You likely induce some bluffs on the river with this line, which again maximizes value against his weakest hands that would be folding if you bet turn. If you do bet turn you probably have to call a raise? I know you said you don't get raised often in your games, but it would really suck to get check-raised in this spot and I would prefer to avoid that.